MyDD :: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups

Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups

by Chris Bowers, Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:01:32 AM EST

Survey USA has a huge omnibus poll that matches up numerous, potential Democratic presidential contenders with numerous, potential Republican Presidential contenders in all fifty states. I think there are 60 matchups overall, but you only get only for free. My "free" matchup showed John Edwards beating Sam Brownback 532-6. No surprise there, but I wanted to start with a matchup where I was pretty sure a Democrat would win huge. I am going to purchase all sixty of the matchups now.

I am not sure if I am allowed to reprint all of the matchups here, so if people in the comments were to each choose one of the sixty matchups, and post the results in the comments, that would be a fun group project this morning.

Update: Of course, even then, we wouldn't get to see all of the results in each state for each of the 60 matchups, so this would be a poor substitute. Really, if you want all the information, go to Survey USA and buy a subscription. Here is a teaser: FDR beats Reagan 438-100!

Tags: President 2008 (all tags)

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Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

John McCain - 377
Al Gore - 161

by PsiFighter37 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:07:56 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

With McCain taking MA!

by BingoL on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:08:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We'll flip those numbers once Gore enters the race (none / 0)

McCain carries an image that doesn't match his record. On the other hand, Gore is still burdened with the false negatives that were slung by the media/right wing machine in 2000.

Furthermore, when Gore stood up for electoral justice in 2000, thanks to the virulent attack campaign by Republican'ts, his unfavorables rose. He also paid a price for taking positions such as opposing the war (and calling for near-complete repeal of the Patriot act. Please see my diary) when the public opinion was contrary to those positions. Unfortunately, unfavorables rise when you buck the public opinion, and they tend to linger even after the person in question has been vindicated later, as Gore's anti-Iraq position and speech have been.

Clearly, I'm glad that Gore fought the tough battles in the interests of doing the right thing instead of making more strategic choices that would help him personally.

McCain has a rabid right-wing record, especially over the past six years when he has stooped to whatever depth he needed to in order to increase his 2008 prospects has been a leading Rubber-stamping Bush Republican't. He was also a top cheerleader for the unwarranted Iraq war. Most people don't realize this record and his hypocritical political gaming.

Old foes McCain, Falwell commence reconciliation

When we expose the truth (that's what a principled and facts/reasoning based campaign would be all about), I expect the tide to turn (as it did in the 2006 midterms).

by NuevoLiberal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:00:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Clark - only Arkansas and DC
McCain - everything else

by yellowdog jim on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:09:58 AM EST

Obama versus Condi (none / 0)

Obama versus Condi

Obama loses 76 to 462.

by Dumbo on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:10:23 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain - 456
Richardson - 73

...I think I may have forgotten the actual numbers because I clicked away and then it tried to make me pay to look at it again. Nonetheless, this is pretty much what it looked like.

by mwilli on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:10:58 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain 499
Richardson 39

I wasn't paying attention. I should have seen that you did this one.

Oh Well I got the right numbers.

Jeff Wegerson - PrairieStateBlue

by wegerje on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:21:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Gore - 526
Romney - 12

by benjamink on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:14:30 AM EST

Gore vs. Giuliani (none / 0)

Damn! Gore 148, Giuliani 390 :(
Only CA, OR, and some states in northeast for Al...

No way, no how, no McCain!

by Gray on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:14:43 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Obama vs. Giuliani - Obama wins only IL and DC. These polls are f-ed, save your money, Chris!

by zenbowl on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:14:54 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Yup, that's ridiculous. There's no way Rudi G. would win CA against Obama.

No way, no how, no McCain!

by Gray on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:10:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I did this match up earlier and I think Obama won Hawaii also.

by asearchforreason on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:11:22 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Yeah, that's what I did. Obama takes IL, HI, and DC.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:33:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I found the results suspicious. Most matchups I tried showed GOP landslides in all but a few states.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:20:16 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain 351, Clinton 187. McCain takes Connecticut, Vermont, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Oregon . . . hahahahah.

by rexus on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:20:48 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Interesting that Gore is doing better than Hillary against McCain.

by Hesiod Theogeny on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:48:29 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Edwards vs Gingrich (3.00 / 1)

538 to 0. Edwards sweeps!

Party like it's 1964 again.

by scientician on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:23:25 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Edwards 538
Gingrich 0

Bwa-hah-hah!

by RickD on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:23:27 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

ha, I wouldn't have expected another twisted mind like mine to hope for such a matchup.

by scientician on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:24:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

Damn it - two seconds late and my choice is worthless now . :(

by RickD on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:24:11 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Have a 3.

Oh yeah, you can click one state for free to see the result in that state of your matchup.

Edwards took 60% of florida's vote over Gingrich.

by scientician on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:25:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 3)

FDR: 430
Ronald Reagan: 108

I couldn't resist that matchup.

by LSdemocrat1 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:25:25 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Hey, we could use this poll to help to stop that rediculous Grover Norquist idea to remove FDR from the dime and replace him with Ronald Reagan.

John McCain will privatize social security.

by gunnar on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:46:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Warner 394
Gingrich 144

Warner takes former red states NV, CO, AR, TN, KY, VA, FL, MO

by littlehippocrat on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:25:57 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Edwards 529, Romney 9... would be nice, but yeah, right.

by sean on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:27:04 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Clinton 518 Huckabee 20.

Huck wins Montana, Idaho, Utah, Wyoming, and Nebraska. Doesn't win a single state in the south. Not even his own state.

This thing is beyond stupid.

by bbstucco on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:29:10 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Clinton 187 McCain 351

Saint Hillary: MA, NY, NJ, DE, MD, DC, FL, IL, AR, CA, HI.

FL: Saint Hillary: 48%, Straight Talk McCain: 45%

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:13:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Um... (none / 0)

...Clinton was originally from Arkansas, too, and the Clinton machine is, to a certain extent, still active there. It makes sense that she might win there.

by Geotpf on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 06:30:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Giuliani - 354
Clinton - 184

Of course, I don't know that I see either of them winning their party's noms, but whatever...

by schulz52 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:29:13 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Obama 28
McCain 510

by clockwerks on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:41:06 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Why don't I believe that one?

by raginillinoian on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:10:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

Remember that its not a prediction ... as long as McCain has the halo in the MSM of a maverick who will go against the Republican party when he thinks its wrong, and for campaign finance reform, he'll do well because of strong name recognition.

For example:

McCain (272): ME, NH, MA, PA, NJ, DE, VA, GA, TN, AL, MS, IN, AR, LA, MN, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, MT, WY, CO, NM, WA, OR, ID, NV, UT, AZ

Edwards (266): RI, CT, VT, NY, MD, NC, SC, FL, OH, WV, KY, MI, WI, IL, IA, MO, CA.

OH: Edwards 48, McCain, 42.

No way that McCain polls a positive margin in MA against Democratic with reasonably high name recognition if they learn about his stance on most issues, and especially after he has pretzeled the Straight Talk Express in chasing Republican primary voters.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:02:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Oops, didn't look at the edges of the map ...

McCain: ... AK

Edwards: ... HI

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:15:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Obama takes only Illinois, DC, and Hawaii. McCain wins Massachusetts 58% to 33%. Seems a little suspicious to me.

PrairieStateBlue - Open Source Politics (formerly SoapBlox/Chicago)

by ltsply2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:56:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Gore 451
Hagel 87

by tea in the harbor on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:41:36 AM EST

OT: Vote Turnout Analysis by American University (none / 0)

FYI - Some voting analysis by American University available on their College of Public Affairs website. It's 82 pages long with a sh*tload of charts. I've just downloaded it and it's going to take me a bit to get through it.

http://spa.american.edu/newsitem.php?ID= 37

The document is in PDF form available at the bottom of the page.

by lisadawn82 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:43:53 AM EST

Re: OT: Vote Turnout Analysis by American Universi (none / 0)

Go Eagles!!!

Max Friedman

by Max Friedman on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:47:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

This is bull. Iove Gore but there is no way he beats Jeb 517-21. jeb only gets ID, WY, UT, and AL. I cannot believe that Jeb would only get 44% in FL. Plus I don't remember selecting a third party candidate and if Gore gets 48% and Jeb gets 44% then we are missing 8%.

by nibit25 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:49:49 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Actually, the fact that Gore beats Jeb in Florida tells me how strong Gore really is.

Both of them are extremely well-known in Florida.

by Hesiod Theogeny on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:51:12 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

The Bush name has been badly tarnished.

John McCain will privatize social security.

by gunnar on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 07:49:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

gore - 311
condi - 227

gore gets the west coast, nevada, colorado, tennessee, arkansas, missouri, iowa
but he loses montana, minnesota, all the red states, and indiana.

mmm... well, my sense is that this looks mostly right, except that i bet he'd smoke condi in montana. also, my sense is that some of the tighter states (ohio, new hampshire, etc) would be really conflicted over who they chose.

note: he apparently wins tennessee 48-45. funny, gore-condi in red states would be like jindal-bianco wherein the voters really don't want to vote for either.

second note: hah hah, like gore and condi would ever face off.

by island empire on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:54:13 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Edwards-McCain

266-272

Edwards in Ohio, McCain in NH, Maine, maybe some other small state.

I agree shouldn't take them as gospel, but interesting.

by roublen vesseau on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:55:07 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Wow. Now that's really interesting.

by Hesiod Theogeny on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:11:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Clark vs. McCain - Clark wins AK, McCain takes the rest :-(

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:58:55 AM EST

Err, I mean Arkansas, not Alaska. Sheesh! (n/t) (none / 0)

Damn George Bush! Damn everyone that won't damn George Bush! Damn every one that won't put lights in his window and sit up all night damning George Bush!

by brainwave on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:59:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Gore v. Allen:
508 to 30

by Catch 22 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:01:05 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

People are ignoring Gore way too much. He is the ONLY Democrat who could thwart a potential Hillary Express. No problem with cash, no problem with name recognition, experience etc. And let's not forget the minor detail that he's won a presidential campaign before but got SHAFTED!! More importantly for Dem primary voters, he was right on Iraq, unlike Hillary, and also unlike Hillary hasn't kowtowed to right wingers one iota...

The Ripper www.minor-ripper.blogspot.com

by MinorRipper on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:04:07 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

I disagree - Edwards leads Hillary in Iowa as it is... the early game is in Edwards' favor... this nomination process could very well go to Edwards.

by KainIIIC on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:59:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

That's one poll from Iowa (none / 0)

and the margin was 4%, below the 4.9% margin of error.

Edwards visited IA a dozen times, HRC and others hadn't.

Gore and Obama weren't included in that poll.

Not exactly a relevant poll any longer.

by NuevoLiberal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:12:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gore wasn't included in the D.M. Register's poll.. (3.00 / 1)

...because he said he wasn't interested in running. Apparently the Register took him at his word.

More visits by Hillary to Iowa do not guarantee that her numbers rise significantly. Her negatives are considerably higher than those of Edwards, and only a tiny percentage have not already formed an opinion of her.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:22:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Negatives/Positives aren't written in stone (none / 0)

A campaign is all about informing people about candidates' record and positions, and doing one's best to fight false claims and baseless negative attacks.

by NuevoLiberal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:33:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Im a big fan of Al Gore but I am thinking its increasingly unlikely he will run.

I understand that polls can be highly misleading but in the recent Newsweek Poll a whopping 53% said there was "No chance" they would vote for Gore.

The only listed candidates that did worse on this measure were Kerry (55%) and Gingrich (58%).

I have been saying that Hillary is hardly a lock, but she did get the highest percentage of those who said there was a good chance they would vote for her with 33%.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/15667442/sit e/newsweek/page/3/
http://www.pollingreport.com/2008.htm#mi sc

by Catch 22 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:18:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Gore? (2.00 / 1)

Al Gore a strong candidate? Ugh. Can we please just move on and find some new blood. Send Gore, Kerry, Edwards & Hillary away and let someone else lead.

by schulz52 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:06:36 AM EST

Re: Gore? (none / 0)

Yeah, what's with wanting a credible and highly intelligent policy wonk who works tirelessly for great causes and already won a national campaign in 2000? Shit, no, we should choose some unknown quantity! 'Cause Al Gore lied about inventing the internets or some shit.

Really, the case against Gore has only 1 point: He's so far unwilling to run.

If you've seen An Inconvenient Truth, you know this guy can and would win the Presidency if he ran again.

by scientician on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:42:28 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore? (none / 0)

Halleluja, Brother!

by prince myshkin on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:38:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Gore? (none / 0)

Um, no. I'm as much of a Dem as the next guy, but Al Gore definitely has more than one failing.

1. He managed to run one of the worst campaigns ever and lost (yes, lost) an election that shouldn't have been close because he couldn't decide who he was. Regardless of all that's happened since, that loser tag would be a very difficult thing to overcome.

When was the last time a "wonk" won a national election? If the elections of Bush and Clinton (and the defeats of Gore and Kerry) should've taught us anything, it's that America doesn't want a wonk. It wants a guy that you can have a beer with and relate to. (Not saying that it's right -- hell, I voted for Bill Bradley in the primaries back when and no one's wonkier than he is). Al's not that guy in my view, and would have a hard time changing that view.
This past election was, to a degree, about bringing in new blood. I just think America's hungry for new leadership and would bristle at Gore's return.

Anyway, there are certainly arguments that would back Gore, and certainly passionate people on the left who would back him. I just have my doubts, that's all.

by schulz52 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

It looks like, according to SurveyUSA, McCain is a mighty, mighty man.

by dwbh on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:08:24 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

But not as mighty as Rudy.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:38:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 3)

Some people are taking this way too seriously. The election is 2 years away. This is mostly showing name recongition.

by asearchforreason on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:12:28 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

I believe you're correct in the name recognition factor. I really think that McCain has hitched himself to a sinking ship in the form of the reactionary religious right. Their power is on the decline.

by lisadawn82 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:14:41 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Yeah, and they don't even like him.

by prince myshkin on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:39:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

That McCain/Edwards Matchup is REALLY intriguing (3.00 / 3)

Yes, McCain right now beats Edwards. But only, as was pointed out, by 6 electoral votes. And McCain, according to the polling, would win Massachussets, maines and New Hampshire.

I find it very hard to believe that McCain would beat Edwards in any of those states, let a,onw Massachusetts.

On the other hand, They have Edwards beating McCain in South carolina so that's kind of a wash.

They also show McCain beating Edwards in Washington and Oregon, whcih I think would be reversed. So, the electoral math is VERY favorable towards Edwards in reality.

It appears that Missouri, and Iowa will be the swing states in that matchup.

by Hesiod Theogeny on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:16:33 AM EST

As of RIGHT NOW, Edwards is the only Democrat... (3.00 / 1)

...who has a seriously legitimate shot at knocking off McCain. (Remember, I said RIGHT NOW.) The poll had McCain beating Edwards in Pennsylvania, 44%-41%, hardly a conclusive number. Put PA and MA in Edwards' column, SC in McCain's, and Edwards beats him.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:26:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: As of RIGHT NOW, Edwards is the only (3.00 / 1)

No way, the people in SC still think that McCain has an illegitimate child of color!

by KainIIIC on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:54:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 2)

i was actually polled in this survey. surprised the heck out of me, but it was the night or two after the election last week. it was a buttload of options on presidential match ups, and they kept pitting odd republicans like Tom Tancredo against different democrats. Towards the end, I really got bored with it, but my favorite 2 questions, in the "perpective" column, at the very end just after FDR vs Regan were:

Howard Stern-D vs Don Imus-R

and get this

Keith Olberman-D vs Bill Oreilly-R

loved that lol. I voted for the dem every single time until they threw Al Sharpton against Condi Rice, then i was genuenly undecided

for lack of a better one, BUSH SUCKS

by Steven R on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:19:52 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I think that's a good point. Can we really take these results seriously if the poll itself is exhausting the people polled? Who really pays attention or keeps interest through a whole poll if they're just listing random democrats and republicans?

by umcpgreg on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 03:40:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Giuliani beats Gore, with the former picking up 390 EV.

Sad.

May it not come to be.

by Mumon on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:37:08 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

But note that nationwide Guliani combines high name recognition with close to zero knowledge about him other than 9-11.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:07:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Gore vs. Huckabee

510-28

Gore takes all but AK, ID, OK, UT, WY, ND, and SD.

Huckabee doesn't even take Arkansas (loses 50-44).

Except for Arkansas, though, this is likely mostly a function of name recognition. In Arkansas its likely a function of the fact they actually know the guy. (I live in Arkansas for a while, and the idea of a President Huckabee is scary.)

by Elakazal on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:39:17 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

As has been noted above, this is only meaningful if the contenders are already well-known nationally. (Which, e.g., Bill Clinton was not at this point in 1990.)

For Dems this means Kerry, Clinton, Gore, Edwards. Obama, Clark, etc are pretty well unknown except to the kinds of people who regularly read mydd :)

For GOP probably McCain, Giuliani, Rice, Gingrich, Bush. I'm not sure Frist even is very well-known nationally.

Clinton loses to Giuliani 184-354; Oregon goes Giuliani 51-41.

Also: what's the MoE on these things? The electoral college has highly nonlinear response to uncertainties.

by Professor Foland on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:41:28 AM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I suck; I missed that this matchup was reported above.

by Professor Foland on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:42:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Obama is pretty well-known nationally... I'd saay about equal or more to Gingrich's name recognition.

by KainIIIC on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 08:57:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Gore over Romney, 526-12

by dbarkley on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:43:15 AM EST

Edwards Guiliani (none / 0)

Guiliani wins 438-100
Edwards gets WI, IA, MO, WA, CA, VT, DC

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?

by The lurking ecologist on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:04:52 PM EST

Re: Edwards Guiliani (none / 0)

And Guiliani wins Michigan by 2 percent 48-46. Wonder who those other 6% are voting for.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?

by The lurking ecologist on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:06:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards Guiliani (none / 0)

They're undecided.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:40:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Edwards Guiliani (none / 0)

Then there are a lot of states that could flip either way on the undecided vote and this exercise is pretty useless.

Oh wait, this exercise IS pretty useless.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?

by The lurking ecologist on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 04:31:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Battle of the Wonks (3.00 / 1)

[delurking]

Gore 511, Gingrich 27

If the stakes weren't so high, I'd probably pay just to follow that campaign.

by latts on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:15:15 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain - Feingold (because I thought it was cute)
525 - 13
Feingold gets WI and DC.

by Oxymoron on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:22:02 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain racks up 501 EVs against Biden.

I'm British, but our politics bores me.

by Illustrious on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 12:43:08 PM EST

Watch these numbers start to leak (none / 0)

into Rush Limbaugh's show, Glen Beck's commentary.

by JohnGor0 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:06:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Watch these numbers start to leak (none / 0)

Can Limbaugh stomach McCain or Rudy? Doubt it.

Visit Election Inspection for analysis, polls, and predictions!

by X Stryker on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:41:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I was able to hack into the system (none / 0)

I put up Jesus for the Democrats against a bowl of warm spinach for the Republicans.

All I have to say is Jesus has alot of work to do everywhere but in DC.

by JohnGor0 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:05:35 PM EST

Re: I was able to hack into the system (none / 0)

I love Spinach and gotta say, not too big a fan of Jesus.

by umcpgreg on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 03:43:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

What if the democracy we thought we were serving no longer exists, and the Republic has become the very evil we have been fighting to destroy?

by santos on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:36:59 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 1)

I ran the Edwards-McCain one, too. I think Edwards-McCain is one of the most likely match-ups in 2008.
McCain 272, Edwards 266.
Really? I think Edwards would do well here in Oregon. Democrats don't necessarily care for him, but a lot of independents and Republicans like the guy. More than McCain? Maybe not. Oregon, though, is trending Democratic. Gore won by about 6,500 votes in 2000, Gov. Kulongoski won by about 28,000 in 2002, Kerry won by 68,000, and Kulongoski just won re-election at 52-43. We just took the state house back. Would Oregon really turn red just for McCain?
In their match-up, Oregon would be enough to turn the tide.
But are we sure Edwards would get Ohio as he does in the survey? I think he would, because he's a populist. But McCain gets Pennsylvania. I doubt that. Would Edwards get SC? Probably not. Would McCain get the Northeastern states, or Washington? I doubt it. Big question- Who gets Virginia? McCain narrowly gets it, I think.

"And so in the place of the palace of privilege, we seek to build a temple out of faith and hope and charity."-FDR

by jallen on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:39:37 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I DON´T UNDERSTAND THIS ONE:
Russ vs. Romney

Romney by far (340 something to 190 something), Russ only take CA, IA, WA, WI, IL, OH, NY, NJ, VT, DE, DC, MD and AR!!!!! 37.7 to 37.6
According to this one Russ can´t win even against Romney, I didn´t want to put Next because the name recognition thing, but against Mitt I thought was fair.

What if the democracy we thought we were serving no longer exists, and the Republic has become the very evil we have been fighting to destroy?

by santos on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:41:51 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

I mean Newt

What if the democracy we thought we were serving no longer exists, and the Republic has become the very evil we have been fighting to destroy?

by santos on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:42:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Edwards 538 - Huckabee 0

meh this means name recognition only

by neodem on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 01:44:32 PM EST

Edwards/McCain (none / 0)

Interesting match for sure.

Check out the New Progressive Blog EENRBLOG

by dk2 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:39:32 PM EST

This thing is stupider than all get-out. (none / 0)

No way I'm paying for simple-minded nonsense like this toy.

by paul minot on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:41:45 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

If you go to Pollster.com Survey USA has an ad that you can click on to do another matchup.

by nibit25 on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 02:59:56 PM EST

Poll is useful when comparing apples to apples (3.00 / 1)

When comparing those with high name recognition on each side, you get an idea of their relative standing 2 years out.

For Democrats, those with high name recognition are: Clinton, Kerry, Gore and (to a somewhat lesser extent) Edwards.

For Republicans, they appear to be: Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich and (more or less) Rice.

Of course, for the others, name recognition doesn't come for free.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 03:27:18 PM EST

Although this is a pointless name recogition... (3.00 / 1)

...survey at this point, the data posted above by everybody does seem to indicate that Edwards may be the strongest canidate on our side at this point in time. Since Feingold dropped out, I am currently canidateless, and, while I like Edwards, his Iraq War and Patriot Act votes, plus his extremely limited government experience (a single senate term, with no other government experience at all such as mayor or state legislature), have caused me pause in the past.

by Geotpf on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 05:53:11 PM EST

I see where you're coming from. (3.00 / 1)

Edwards' mea culpa on his vote and his call early this year for beginning to withdraw troops appears to show that he really gets it, now.

He's also been overseas as co-chair of the Council on Foreign Relations Committee on Russia, and visiting Darfur to see first-hand the humanitarian crisis there (which he really emphasizes in his speeches). I think he knows that foreign policy is the area he needs to shore up, and he's showing intellectual curiosity on a wide variety of topics.

John Edwards 2008

by MeanBoneII on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:54:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Although this is a pointless name recogition (none / 0)

(a single senate term, with no other government experience at all such as mayor or state legislature)

I must be getting old, since I don't think that being mayor or in the state legislature means anything more than that the person has been a politician their whole life.

To me, the fact that Edwards was able to become a multi-millionaire as a trial lawyer, combined with the kind of cases he took on, shows more about his talents than mayor would do.

The standard comparison people make, when there's not a VP on offer, is a governor, but of the four governors I have seen as President, neither Carter (who I liked), nor Bush-43 (who I loath) seemed to display very impressive executive management skills. And the non-governor, Bush-41, had a government resume a yard long, and I was not impressed by those results either.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 09:21:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The governor thing is... (none / 0)

...the theory that Governors are in charge, and talk like somebody in charge, as opposed to senators, who are one of a hundred, and therefore talk wishy washy like one of a hundred. Now, some senators rise above this in thier speaking style (Feingold, JFK, Obama), so making this an iron fast rule is very bad, but Kerry is a perfect example of the theory.

As for exerience, this is not any old political position we are talking about. This is President of the Freaking United States
here. It would be nice to know somebody had at least some lower governmental experience, and I'm sure I'm not the only one who thinks this.

by Geotpf on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 06:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The governor thing is... (none / 0)

... I know what the image thing on the governor thing is, I was talking about whether it actually makes for a better President.

However, I do agree that spending too much time in the Senate can make someone into a qualifying windbag, though I have seen former Senator Edwards claim that he's fighting it.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 10:14:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (3.00 / 2)

The Skinny vs. McCain

Edwards is -6 ECVotes
Hillary is -164 ECVotes
Gore is -216 ECVotes
Obama is -482 ECVotes
Clark is -520 ECVotes

Can even the blind see the obvious?

Michigan For Edwards and Labor-Netroots for Edwards

by philgoblue on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 06:34:09 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

McCain v. Richardson is 499-53 with Richardson getting only NM, NY, & DC.

by cschmitt on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 10:57:46 PM EST

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Name recognition ... but even if you can filter out for people who know who Richardson is, I'm sure that information costs $50.

Putting up enough free information to get out onto the blogs and not enough for free to really get information out of the survey would seem to be part of the business model that SurveyUSA is using.

The words of the prophets are written on the subway halls
and tenement halls

by BruceMcF on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 10:16:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doesn't include spoilers (none / 0)

In '08, we're very likely to see Bloomberg make a quixotic as an indy that will pull major votes away from the GOP. The map may change considerably with whomever is the Dem candidate with a strong run by Bloomy or any of the "Unity 08" folks.

by moonbird on Mon Nov 13, 2006 at 11:32:23 PM EST

Imagine a three way, all New York race (none / 0)

Hillary vs. Giuliani vs. H. Clinton.

Yikes.

by Geotpf on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 06:39:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Scoop needs an edit function (none / 0)

You know what I meant.

by Geotpf on Tue Nov 14, 2006 at 06:39:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Survey USA's 60 Presidential Matchups (none / 0)

Perhaps we should hold off with Obama until 2012. He's the only real ace up our sleeves, and it would really suck if his political career ended after he served two years in the Senate, then ran for President and lost.

Warner: 16 (Virginia)
McCain: 522

Same for Giuliani.

Warner: 139
Condee: 399

I was surprised at how bad these numbers are. I still think Warner and Richardson are the best two candidates, and that their numbers will improve as people outside their own states hear of them.

BTW, if anyone purchases a subscription, please be so kind as to post your user name and password.

Richardson >= Warner > Gore > Edwards >>>>>>> Hillary >>>>>>> Kerry

by rech6779 on Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 04:49:17 PM EST

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