Looking only at Democrats who took over Republican-held seats, here is a list of incoming Democratic freshmen in the House who are probably going to join the Progressive caucus:
- AZ-08: Gabrielle Giffords
- CA-11: Jerry McNerney
- IA-01: Bruce Braley
- NH-19: John Hall
In addition to the already listed McNerney, here are the incoming netroots candidates (we only endorsed challengers in 2006):
- MN-01: Tim Walz
- NH-02: Paul Hodes
- NC-08: Larry Kissell (maybe)
- PA-07: Joe Sestak
- PA-08: Patrick Murphy
- WA-08: Darcy Burner (probably)
In addition to the already listed Braley, Hodes, Sestak, Murphy and McNerney, here are the incoming Democrats from blue districts who took over Republican-held seats:
- CT-02: Joe Courtney
- IA-02: Dave Loebsack
- CT-05: Chris Murphy
- FL-22: Ron Klein
- CO-07: Ed Perlmutter
- KY-03: John Yarmuth
- NH-01: Carol Shea-Porter
- NY-24: Michael Arcuri
So, it looks like about 60%-70% of the incoming Democratic freshmen who took over Republican-held seats meet one of the three following criteria:
- Joining the progressive caucus
- From a blue district
- Netroots candidate
Wow. What a conservative wave. A great victory for conservatives indeed. Throw in uber-conservative freshmen Phil Hare (IL-17), Keith Ellison (MN-05), and Mazie Hirono (HI-02), who all filled Democratic open-seats, and who will all probably join the progressive caucus, and this is the most conservative House of Representatives of all time. The most conservative part was probably when progressive Mazie Hirono took over for Blue Dog Ed Case in HI-02, after Case lost his Senate primary to ultra-conservative Daniel Akaka. A big right-wing shift, that. A close second was when progressive Bruce Braley took conservative Jim Nussle's seat, and then Nussle lost the Iowa Governor's race anyway. Truly, hard-right swings across the board.
Tom Schaller has a lot more on this.