Accrding to SurveyUSA, the Dems lead on partisan ID 43-25, which is a change from 36-31.

That huge gap is temporary, of course, but a victory this November might help stabilize it in double-digits.

CNN just reported its own poll found a 21 point lead among likely voters. Last poll was a 11 point lead. Also interesting is that support for Republicans didn't just drop, support for Democrats rose to 58%.

Among registered voters, he said, I believe, a thirteen point lead grew to sixteen.

Mathematically, this advantage means the Dems, if the election were held today and these numbers are held, Dems would win 80+ seats in the House and likely the top 9 in the Senate (the Big 7 plus Carter and Pederson).  

Do we dare create an election night drinking game:  take a shot every time the Dems win a seat from the Republicans?

I hope the Dems diidn't peak too early. There's 4 weeks left.

The chickens are coming home to roost. Their base was the values voter. The independents were already bolting over Iraq and economic issues like the doughnut hole and the deficit. Now the base is imploding over the cover up of a sex predator.

I generally don't trust Gallup because their party ID swings all over the place. The beta in Gallup polls is huge - when other polls show movement of 3 points one way, Gallup shows a 7 point movement. In other words, we won't win the Congress by 23 points. It would mean a pickup of 62 seats, with Dems holding a 265-170 lead. It would be only 25 short of a veto-proof majority. It ain't gonna happen.

HOWEVER, Gallup polls tend to reflect real movement, even they exaggerate it. This poll moved from a tie to 23 points among likely voters. The same likely voter screen they used last time, which emphasizes 2002 and 2004 turnout, showed this massive lead for the Dems. Yet, the party ID shifted too, which for Gallup means a lot more Republicans called themselves Independents, and Independents called themselves Democrats. With other polls showing serious movement toward the Democrats, this Gallup poll might have the mojo right even if not the details.

That's great news but obviously a 21 or 23 point lead is absurd.

I think numbers like that are useful to understand the polling climate during the Foley scandal. It also applies to individual races and we're foolish not to understand that. Consequently, any polls taken within the past week or ten days, particularly in House races, should be viewed with extreme caution and skepticism.

We don't know how much legs that issue will have, but I would guess the polling taken two weeks from now on individual races will be more accurate than recent ones.

It will be interesting to see where the Republicans spend their money over the next fortnight. That should give us a sense of where they are drawing the line post Foley. In the current climate you would imagine they will have to pull back from some of the original battlegrounds in order to defend territory linked directly or indirectly to Foley/Hastert.

The danger with these waves is that they hit races that just aren't prepared for such a swing. From much of what I've read I seriously believe that the body politic just hasn't come to terms with the impact that Foley will have on the election. With luck the Republicans will completely misjudge the scale of the disgust and end up losing seats they could have won.

the GOP in October in 1994 I wonder...

23 points among likely voters?  Wow.  Just wow.  Even if that gets cut in half in the next 29 days, we would still win a healthy majority in the House.  

Never underestimate the power of a sex scandal.  Why?  Because everybody understands THAT.

I'm telling all y'all, the Foley scandal totally knocked the legs out from under the GOP. It's not about corruption, it's not even about sex ... it's about predation. The GOP has always said they'd protect Americans from predators like terrorists, but they couldn't even protect pages from one of their own.