Anybody have a poll from Hastert's district?  That could be an unforeseen pickup opportunity.  It only went 55% for Bush in 2004 and 54% in 2000.

Stick a fork in them...

The Republicans are DONE!!!!!!!! Nancy Pelosi will become the FIRST WOMAN SPEAKER OF THE HOUSE!!!

Has any party ever come back from this kind of deficit with less than a month until the election to win it???

As you've pointed out many times, Democrats have never held leads this large, this close to the election. If these numbers persist, the Democrats could pick up 50 seats.

Any guesses how many seats Dems will actually pick up???

My guess: 50 to 60.

Denny Hastert's poorly-staged press conference today  was everything we could have hoped for. His desperate craving for power is like Gollum clinging  to Precioousss.  A quick resignation would have bought the Republicans time to bury some of the skeletons in the closet and change the news cycle. A long drawn out process that reveals the truth which forces him to resign a few weeks before the election is the best outcome.

Alongside accountability is the issue of trust.  Would you trust the Republican Party to oversee your son or daughter in Washington? Do you trust Republicans with your future (Social Security and Medicare)? Do you trust Republicans to protect you if a natural disaster strikes?

No. No. No.

And I certainly don't trust Republicans with my freedom.

Foley provides a perfect metaphor for the modern Republican party. The man put in charge of children's safety preyed on children.

He is the visceral symbol people can relate to. Before, too many were able to believe in WMD, Saddam attacked us on 9/11, Clear skies, no child left behind.

Foley has become the mirror to help them understand that the words are meaningless; the actions belay the words.

His stunning fall from grace reveals all the other corruption and evil in a way our words could never do.

Just call him Judas.

Surprise!

It's swamping them the same way Katrina finally made everybody realize what a loser Bush was.

And best of all, nobody has had to die in Foleygate.

It's the perfect storm. :)

I really hate to see the projections like 50 to 60. The people who make them can be applauded for enthusiasm but are wildly uninformed. Some the seats on that swap list to get to 50 would literally be several hundred to one odds against, if evaluated individually.

As someone else posted, the geography doesn't match '94 at all. I started evaluating politics closely in '96 and when I looked back at '94 I expected to see a flood of abnormal results. But it was nothing like that at all. I looked at dozens of districts where I wondered how the Democrats had maintained control for so long, based on the partisan index of the district. Frankly, my conclusion was the GOP had been lazy and ineffective for more than a decade in allowing those seats to remain in our hands.

Anyway, I sampled the PEW survey and they are always a treat. The party ID edge is our highest of the year at 34-27. Iraq leads as the most important factor at 44% putting it first or second. But I'll point out the economy is second there at 41% combined. I still don't think we are emphasizing it enough, particularly when Bush and Hastert are handing us these quotes about how great the economy is. Their "base" may feel that way but average Americans do not. That is witnessed by every Strategic Vision poll including the most recent ones, where Bush's approval number on the economy remains well below that of Iraq or the overall approval number. While we allow the GOP to fight and feud over this Foley issue, why not run some positive spots in that regard, emphasizing economic emphaisis and a raise in the miniumum wage should voters put Democrats in charge? I'm still concerned our poll margins may be great but turnout among key demographics may not match that. Check out the PEW summary. It emphasizes that women have turned against Iraq more than men. But I see nothing in our campaigns designed to yank women to the polls, based on the traditional issues they prioritize, particularly young single women.

The PEW poll findings were what I expected, that the Foley scandal has not impacted the voting percentage. The sample was over a two-week period with almost identical numbers of surveys before and after the Foley news, yet the margin remains the same, at +13. That is awesome and we realistically can't expect it to be higher. I think this story, while not as devastating as the Woodward book in terms of what they are hiding and denying, probably is more difficult to defend and recover from, since it is easily understood by the masses. I heard Scarborough say tonight that if he were on the campaign trail he would much rather be defending Iraq than the Foley situation.

So think of the Foley issue as more defense than offense. It won't raise our advantage but it does prevent the GOP from easily changing the subject and therefore potentially gaining late momentum.

It was in the headlines from 2001 -2003 and still flares up as new evidenc of coverups emerge every so often.

This scandal goes deep and will not end anytime soon.  I'd guarantee that there are are many more shoes to drop.  

I find it funny how Brian Ross, whose ABC story on how torture supposedly works was touted last week by all the right-wing blowhards as proof that we need to be able to torture detainees, has suddenly become the left's best chance at retaking the majority. From hero of the right to hero of the left in one week. You can't get more "fair and balanced" than that. </snark>

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