Still, it takes all of the fun out of Tester moving into a very solid position, and both Chafee and Menendez noticeably improving their positions.

I think you've got a typo in there. Presumably it is Whitehouse's improvements you are pleased with...

You might notice that I have labeled Lieberman an incumbent.

You mean Lieberman the Republican...

So far I haven't read poll analyses that include the way in which undecided generally break for the challenger.  If there are 10-15% undecided in all these races, and the Republican incumbent (or heir) is more or less even, such as in MO, TN and maybe VA, wouldn't history indicate that these will go blue?

Are the undecided numbers kind of high? Seems like it to me. Maybe somebody smart could do the research. There are alot of voters out there who seem confident they will vote but still seem to have no clue how they will vote. Both an opportunity and a danger. It can't be good news for incumbents. But in an open seat like TN's i'm not sure how it cuts...20% still don't know? 1 in 5? Many ways to still win and lose these things with that number seemingly so high.

My Prediction on the 2006 US Senate Race.
1)Arizona- Kyl(R)- 54%
           Pedersen(D)-46%
2)Connecticut- Lieberman(I)-49%
               Lamont(D)-47%
               Schlessinger(R)-4%
3)Florida- Nelson(D)-60%
           Harris(R)-40%
4)Maryland- Cardin(D)-53%
            Steele(R)-47%
5)Michigan- Stabenow(D)-56%
            Bouchard(R)-43%
6)Minnesota- Klobuchar(D)-56%
             Kennedy(R)-44%
7)Missouri- McCaskill(D)-50%
            Talent(R)-50%
8)Montana- Tester(D)-53%
           Burns(R)-47%
9)Nebraska- Nelson(D)- 61%
            Ricketts(R)- 39%
10)Nevada- Ensign(D)- 56%
           Carter(D)- 44%
11)New Jersey- Menendez(D)-51%
               Kean(R)-49%
12)Ohio- Brown(D)- 51%
         DeWine(R)- 49%
13)Pennsylvania- Casey(D)- 55%
                 Santorum(R)- 45%
14)Rhode Island- Whitehouse(D)- 52%
                 Chafee(R)- 48%
15)Tennessee-  Ford(D)- 50%
               Corker(R)-50%
16)Vermont- Sanders(I)- 64%
            Tarrant(R)- 36%
17)Virginia- Allen(R)-53%
             Webb(D)- 47%
18)Washington- Cantwell(D)-54%
               McGavick(R)-46%

Democratic Pick-up
1)Pennsylvania
2)Montana
3)Rhode Island
4)Ohio

Too Close to Call
5)Tennessee
6)Missouri

Sigh.  With all the oddball polls thrown out, it looks like CMBurns is right up above.  We keep MD and NJ as well as picking up PA, MT, RI, and OH. If we can get to a 50-50 tie I think we are in good shape, because Joe can caucus with us to keep it tied at 50, like Jeffords.  If we get to 51-49, he might go the other way, for the same reason.  In either case, we might end up with a split.

How will that effect chairmanships?  Subpoena power?

The must win Senate races for Democrats are
Missouri- McCaskill
Tennessee- Ford
Virginia- Webb

assuming Democrats hold on to MD,NJ, and pick up PA,MT,RI,and OH.

Virginia- will be a safety seat if Lieberman defeats to the GOP.

...so we need to make sure he loses.

Arizona is still possible. I saw Jim Pederson with General Wesley Clark last week and the momentum is definetly building. Democrats in this state need to look at the big picture. If John Kyl stays in the Senate 2 more years it give George Bush a yes vote on anything he wants, torture, billions more for a failed war, and broader presidential powers.

There's also a new poll today by Strategic Vision (R): Kean 46 Menendez 41.

IMO the must-win senate state is Ohio. Simply because I'm sure Hackett would have won that race given the GOP problems in the state, and that Hackett's personality fit much better in ousting an incumbent. I realize Brown has led every poll for months, and he has run a far superior campaign than I expected other than the wimpy strategic torture vote, but I'm still worried that he is simply too liberal for a statewide race and the undecideds will break to DeWine as the persistent underdog.

Funny how the one who seems most ashamed of being a Democrat (McCaskill), appears to be the one doing worse than expected.  

Any voter who would like McCaskill better because she hides being a Democrat and says shit like "Hillary can't win Missouri" (btw, way to further the false Republican narrative, Claire), would not vote for her anyway.  They'd just stick with Talent.  

When the fuck are Democrats going to realize this?

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