MyDD :: Zogby Polls 15 House Races

Zogby Polls 15 House Races

by Chris Bowers, Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:17:43 PM EST

Zogby has a bunch of new polls out today on House races. These are telephone polls, not Internet polls. Most of them are in line with other recent polls on House races, but others are way out of whack. They were conducted September 25 though October 2nd:

NC-11: 51-40, D
CO-07: 45-34, D
NM-01: 50-40, D
IN-02: 49-39, D
OH-18: 45-36, D
IN-09: 46-38, D
AZ-08: 45-37, D
CT-04: 46-41, D
IL-06: 43-38, D
VA-02: 46-42, D
PA-06: 43-41, D
CT-02: 44-41, R
MN-06: 46-43, R
KY-04: 42-36, R
IA-01: 47-34, R (WTF? That's 20-25 points different from other polls in this district)

After these polls are added into previous polls, a new tier of House districts is starting to really grow in size: Republican-held districts where Democrats lead outside the margin of error in recent, unconflicted, independent polls. Right now, that category includes AZ-08, CO-07, FL-16, IN-02, IN-08, IN-09, NY-24, OH-18, and PA-10. Throw in TX-22, and that already makes ten seats where current polling would give Democrats a better than a 97.5% chance of a pickup. There are also unconflicted leads for Democrats in the following districts in independent polls, but not outside the margin of error: IL-06, PA-07, and VA-02. There are conflicting independent polls in seven districts: CT-02, CT-04, IA-01, KY-04, NM-01, PA-06, and WA-08. Democrats also lead according to internal polls in WI-08 and CA-11, both districts where there are no independent polls. Democrats are behind, but within the margin of error, according to independent polls in CO-04, KY-03, MN-06, NV-02, NY-26, OH-01, and OH-02, There are a bunch of other races are close too, according to internal polls in races without independent polling to date.

I am not trying to raise expectations, I am just trying to report the current state of the campaign for the House. Looking at these numbers, it is very difficult to not conclude that the House is currently ours to lose.

Update: Democrats also have a lead outside the margin of error in NC-11. So, throw another one onto the fire.

Tags: Polls, House 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 71 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

What's happening in Indiana? I mean, I've seen all the polls for those races, but why is Indiana turning so strongly against the GOP in those races? There's gotta be something specific to the state ...

by BriVT on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:19:56 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Finally coming out from under the legacy of the Jackson family?

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:28:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Voters EVERYWHERE are turning against the GOP. Red states like Indiana are no exception.

The truly solid GOP districts like the ones that send Dan Burton and Mike Pence to the House every couple of years are not going to flip. But it's increasingly looking like this will be the year that Hostettler finally loses, Hill will win his old seat right back after losing it in '04, and it looks like Chocola will be defeated as well. Even red states tend to have a couple of swing districts that, with the right candidate and in the right national environment, can go Democratic.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:30:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 1)

Gov Mitch Daniels is very unpopular. He sold off the indiana Toll Road to a foreign company at what many believe are terms unfavorable to the State,and tolls will rise in the future. I think the other folks have just worn out their welcome. There seems to be a serious case of buyers' remorse in IN.

by Mimikatz on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:26:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Ahhh, that's what I was wondering. I knew there must be some local issues that stained the GOP (like, but less than, the awful stench of corruption that's hurting the GOP in neighboring OH).

Never liked Mitch Daniels.

by BriVT on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:33:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Chocola's 2d district is mostly the area that was represented by Tim Roemer (D) from 1991-2003.
The "Fighting 8th" is a famously close district.
The 9th was Democratic for 40 years with Lee Hamilton and Barron Hill.
Indiana's Republican, but the 7-2 Republican advantage in House seats is an anomaly. And, keep in mind, this was a Democratic-drawn map.

by Ron Thompson on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:27:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Remember, Bush carried IN in 04, but Evan Bayh won over 60% of in 04. A LOT of independent voters split ballots. Kerry was MIA in IN. If Gore would have run with Evan Bayh, he would have won IN.

Indiana not only dislikes Mitch, we are hemorraging jobs. We d make parts for GM and Ford? Fewer cars, fewer parts. Delphi (Chocola's) district is about ready to fold. IN-DEMS have always been there for unions. Economy stupid! Plus the Dems drew the district lines to make a "No GOP left behind" district for Buyer and other races more competitive.

by bakho on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:11:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

I don't know if I'm terribly optimistic about my home state of Indiana. After all, the Republican legislature passed the photo ID required to vote law, which they and everyone else knows damn well is going to reduce Democratic voter turnout. Addtionally, Republican Secretary of State Rokita did a Florida and Ohio style mass mailing purge of the voter rolls.

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:16:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Photo ID has been overturned as unconstitutional in at least two states this year. Is there a challenge in IN? If not, there should be. And fast.

John McCain Opposed Expanded GI Bill

by hilltopper on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:17:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 1)

Yeah, ICLU sued and lost. Know what? My grandparents are old, lifelong GOPers and they no longer drive. They don't have IDs. Hey I will take them to the Doc, shopping, etc. but a trip to BMV for voter ID is reserved for those who plan to vote DEM. If they want a voter ID, they can call up the MF Republican Party responsible for this BS and ask them to drive them over for an ID.

They won't call them because it is too much hassle. Some cynical MF in the GOP decided they could disenfranchise more DEMs than GOP. They are not getting any help from me. It sad because the old folks have always voted every election. However, if you vote for assholes that make it so you can't vote its your own damn fault if you are no longer allowed to vote.

by bakho on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 10:37:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Indiana isn't all that Red, except in presidential elections. They do reasonably well statewide. In 1990, they had 8 Democratic Congressmen and two Republicans--including Democrats in all three of the close ones of this cycle.

It's more that the GOP has been extremely lucky since the last round of redistricting, than that we're doing bizarrely well this time.

by admiralnaismith on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:24:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Indiana has a very potent union contingent. Bayh supported the unions over prevailing wage. This cemented rank and file support for Bayh, no matter what guns god and gays issues the GOP brings.

Right now, Delphi is buying out workers. If Delphi goes, WTF happens to Kokomo? Do they all move to Lafayette to work for Toyota? For less pay? Commute? What happens to the homes? The US has lost over 20% of all MFG jobs in the last 6 years. Many of those jobs used to be in Indiana. This election is about voters staring at their wallets and wondering where the next paycheck is coming from. Republicans have no answers other than move to another state.

Mitch is lucky he is not up for re-election.

BTW- our NG, one killed, two maimed are being returned to Iraq and that isn't even the major issue here.

by bakho on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 10:25:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Gov. Daniels has pissed off Hoosiers over forcing time zone changes on counties that didn't want them and his hugely unpopular privatization of the Indiana Toll Road. IN, OH, and KY are all toxic for Rs this year. Democrats are poised to win 5 of 6 statewide offices in Ohio.

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:29:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Those KY-04 numbers are also a little wacky, and very dissapointing if true.

by dantheman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:32:48 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

The KY-04 race has gone back and forth for months.

The NM numbers are out of whack with evrything else I have read. And most polls have Shays winning but Simmons losing.

Nice to see Patty Wetterling closing the gap.

Note they did not poll PA-07 and 10, TX-22, and FL-16, all of which show the D in the lead.

by Mimikatz on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:29:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Also diod not poll IN-08, whre Ellsworth is well ahead in 3 polls.

by Mimikatz on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:29:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Too late (none / 0)

You have already raised expectations. I sure hope you're right.

by aiko on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:36:35 PM EST

NC-11 (none / 0)

You mention every other district as having moved firmly into our camp or nearly into our camp, but no mention of the 11 point lead for Shuler?

Where does this put him?

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:37:22 PM EST

Re: NC-11 (3.00 / 1)

My gut tells me it's closer than 10 points, but that might just be the effect of Chuck's media saturation; and that may, in itself, be a sign that he's finally going down and getting desperate.

by etagloh on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:00:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-11 (none / 0)

Might be closer than 10, but even so, this dog is done.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:30:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-11 (none / 0)

does anyone else here those crickets???

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:17:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-11 (none / 0)

What? It was a typo. I had to run somewhere and finish this post fast. It happens. Everything isn't a conspiracy.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:55:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: NC-11 (none / 0)

Never said it was, just wondering why it didn't make it onto the list. When we're talking about 15 seats, "1" is a huge percentage.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Thu Oct 05, 2006 at 07:46:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

IF (none / 0)

we win every race where we lead by 5 from Zogby, plus TX22, plus FL16 that gives us 11 house seats. Feels good to be so close. Now if we shitcan the Foley Five, we pick up four more seats and win on that alone.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:41:19 PM EST

House Races (none / 0)

The more races in which we are competitive, the harder it is for Rove and Diebold to cook the election results....

by global yokel on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:45:51 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

WTF on Iowa-01? WTF is the constant barrage of hideous negative ads that have been playing against Braley in the last few weeks. Really disgusting shit, such as Braley is a greedy trial lawyer that writes books on how to sue doctors. The one playing right now goes through Braley's endorsements, then at the end says, in a menacing tone, that the Communist Party of the United States lists Braley as a "peace candidate." Doesn't sound so bad, but the ad in no way imparts the message that Braley is against the war in Iraq, which would garner him support, but instead implies, or basically asserts, that Braley is a Communist Party member. He's a pinko, a red. Be Scared.

Something needs to be done here given that IA-01 was seemingly going to be a big pickup for the Dems. Braley is getting killed on the airwaves.

by rexus on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 12:47:48 PM EST

rexus, are you IN Iowa?...... (none / 0)

Serious question, since you seem more familiar with the ads than would be normal for someone outside the state.

I am FROM Iowa although I haven't lived there in 14 years. As a native Iowan (born and raised in what now is IA-04 held by Rethug Tom Latham) I've tried to follow IA-01 closely and have given $50 to Braley. And this Zogby poll at 47-34 Whalen simply HAS to be an outlier even with those attack ads from Whalen. Constituent Dynamics in mid-September had Braley up 56-41 among likely voters and 54-41 among "all voters," and the Des Moines Register "Iowa Poll" also in mid-September showed Braley up 44-37. Add to that the conventional wisdom and expert analyses that Braley is winning, and there's just no way Whalen has turned the tables this much in a couple weeks.

by DCCyclone on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:25:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: rexus, are you IN Iowa?...... (none / 0)

Yes from Iowa, IA-02, but get all the ads from IA-01.

Perhaps the poll is an outlier. But I can't assume its all that far off until I see more polling. Both Braley and Whalen were unknowns coming into this race, and their prior poll numbers basically reflected voter sentiment towards the Republican leadership. The last few weeks has seen a relentless campaign to paint Braley as a radical, leftest, TRIAL LAWYER!!!! There is seemingly no effective response from the Braley campaign (the only ad I can remember attacks Whalen for paying some of his employees minimum wage, and that ad was running several weeks ago). Perhaps the poll is an outlier, but the Republicans are pushing alot harder than the Democrats, and I think the poll reflects that.

Oh yeah, BTW, Go Hawks.

by rexus on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:02:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Ads like that don't work that well...... (none / 0)

Attack ads work well, but attacking Braley for being a trial lawyer and strangely tryign to tie him to the Communist Party--this is 2006, not 1956--does not move numbers that much that fast. Indeed, those things might not move numbers at all--people say they hate lawyers but they don't really vote against them for that reason. And given the anti-GOP environment from which Iowa certainly isn't immune, there's just no way Whalen is up on Braley 47-34 or anything close to it.

In all seriousness, if I were a Gooper, I simply wouldn't believe this poll. I'd want to, but I wouldn't.

by DCCyclone on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:01:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: rexus, are you IN Iowa?...... (none / 0)

Zogby is often an outlier among polls. I remember in fall 2002 he had the MN Senate race shifting 15 points in 2 or 3 weeks.

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:32:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

One sample out of 20 is bad. (none / 0)

That's what 95% confidence level means, and it's true for every pollster, not just Zogby.

In today's Des Moines Register, quadrennially famous scribe David Yepson covers that very possibility at the end of his good think piece.

by stevehigh on Thu Oct 05, 2006 at 10:26:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 2)

Some notes on the polls:

I'd like to know whether Zogby interviewed 1,000 Republicans in Davenport to get his sample for IA-1. That poll is a total outlier.

Shuler has led in every poll taken of this district. Charles Taylor is next to done, and this race ought to move all the way to Tier 0 on Bowers' rankings.

Zogby confirms the last SurveyUSA poll of CO-7 with a strong Perlmutter lead. Combined with Ritter's dominance in the governor's race and the awesomeness of Colorado Dems, this one looks really good.

This is the first independent poll of NM-1 showing Madrid in front, and with a strong lead as well. I can't believe it's a ten-point lead for Patsy yet. Combine it with the other polls showing Wilson with a slight lead and this race is literally deadlocked.

This is also the third poll which confirms an 8-10 pt. lead for Donnelly. Notre Dame loves Brady Quinn, but they don't like Count Chocola, and it looks like he's going down. It's not a certainty, but it looks like Donnelly has made the sale.

Padgett's connection to Ney and her lack of cash is hurting dearly against Space. Combine that with the Strickland blowout and you have really bad news for the R's here.

I'm about to put IN-9 with TX-22, FL-16 and AZ-8 in the win column because the best poll result for Sodrel against Baron Hill is a six-point lead for Hill.

Zogby has Graf closer to Giffords than anyone else, but I'm pretty confident Gabrielle has a 12-15 pt. advantage here. This one stays in the win column.

Like NM-1, this is the first independent poll showing Farrell ahead of Shays in CT-4. The Constituent Dynamics poll and the UConn poll both had Shays about 4-7 pts. ahead of Farrell, but this finding confirms Cook's and Hotline's belief that it is a pure tossup.

Previous polls from Chicagoland showed Roskam and Tammy in a deadlock, but this is the first time Tammy's built a small lead. Perhaps Roskam turned off some crucial voters when he labeled Duckworth as one who "cut and run".

Zogby confirms Constituent Dynamics' finding in VA-2. Drake definitely trails Kellam, but by a small margin. Perhaps Allen's foibles are hurting Thelma down the ticket.

Everyone has basically written off PA-6 as a gain for us, but every poll from here has it close. Perhaps Rendell's machine is being underpolled here, as he'll crush Swann in the governor's race and Casey will oust Santorum for Senate. That ought to produce some coattails for Lois Murphy.

Although Zogby finds Simmons ahead of Joe Courtney, this is still a coin-flip and also the part of the state where Lamont is strong.

Every poll from MN-6 shows Bachmann with a lead over Wetterling. I saw Wetterling for the first time on CSPAN and she didn't grab me as a candidate that controlled the room. That being said, Bachmann isn't the best candidate either, and Democratic energy in Minnesota is far greater than Republican energy.

Of all Zogby's samples, the Davis-Lucas race in KY-4 has the most undecideds. This is unusual because both guys are pretty well known and some voters still have the impression that Lucas IS the incumbent. It's still a tossup because we've seen recent independent polls with both candidates leading.

by dpinzow on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:03:03 PM EST

Re: PA-06 will always be close (none / 0)

Although the Rs hold a good registration advantage in this district, it's full of Rs who vote like Ds.
Since it's creation in 2000, the district has been almost evenly divided between Gerlach and his Dem opponent. In 2002, it was the closest election in the country with Gerlach winning by about 1500 votes. Gerlach won a little more easily against Murphy in 2004, but it was still only a 2 pt win.
Until and unless it's redrawn in 2010, it's unlikely
either side will blow the other out so expect it to be close and remain so.

by phillydem on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:53:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PA-06 will always be close (none / 0)

Yeah, PA-6 voted for Kerry, I think the margin was 51-48.

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:36:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Minnesota... like you said, Democratic energy is greater there and that helps. Pawlenty didn't look like he was going to be in trouble, but suddenly the Kennedy Senate campaign completely flops and Pawlenty is in trouble. You can't discount the impact that a landslide in one high-profile race will have on other high-profile races. Tennessee is experiencing the same thing; the Gov. race has been a foregone conclusion for so long that if GOP voters aren't sold on Corker they might just not show up. Or they might decide to vote a straight ticket. You never know.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:28:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 1)

I was watching Larry King Last night on the Foley thing, and I was stuck by the shear incompetence of Lanny Davis. Here's a guy who's core political philosophy is dead against democrat issues. His good friend Joe is practical running a 100% backed republican campaign. And I realized his position on what Dem's should do with Foley is TOTALLY WRONG. I don't know if it's intentional or this guy's brain is so badly wired that we can only expect misfires when he opens his mouth.

Here's a 30 second add about Foley off the top of my head guaranteed to get the message out on just how depraved the modern republican party has become.

"The republicans refuse to take responsiblity for harboring this pedophile, can you trust a party that publically preaches family values while privately protecting homesexual perverts trying to seduce your kids. It's time to wake up from this nightmare. Vote Democrat."
(show the explicit text messages in the background message by message, cut with Foley and various Foley and friends shots with dramatic music)

I think people better than me can really use this idea as a freight train to barrel through the media narrative that republicans value their own officials over the nation and the base. And the beuaty is the longer the house leadership stalls stepping down the more effective they make it.

Ignore LANNY DAVIS and the idiot do nothings that have led us to defeat aftre defeat. Dems need to come out swinging loud and proud on this.

by smacfarl on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:25:40 PM EST

Re: Lanny Davis (none / 0)

Lanny Davis cold do the Dems a big favor by having his jaw wired shut.

by mjshep on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:46:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

AZ 05- Hellllloooooo! (3.00 / 1)

Did anyone hear that there is an election in AZ-05 this year? Could have fooled me!

JD Hayworth's lead is shrinking and one internal Dem poll has Harry Mitchell ahead by 3!

Anyway, AZ-08 is getting all the attention and we here in CD5 are working our butts off to dump the psychotic JD Hayworth.

How about a little love?

by TimO on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:42:38 PM EST

Re: AZ 05- Hellllloooooo! (none / 0)

Totally agree with this. These are the kinds of seats where we need to push ahead. Stop gloating the ones that have already been conceded and update the lists and the money to make a difference in the next tier of races that are starting to pop.

Thanks for brining this up.

Don't hate the media, become the media. -- Jello Biafra

by Orlando on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:24:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: AZ 05- Hellllloooooo! (none / 0)

This is a race I really would love to win, but all I've seen are polls with Mitchell behind. Can you give a link to the internal, or at least a story about it?

John McCain Opposed Expanded GI Bill

by hilltopper on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Which polls was this? (none / 0)

That showed Mitchell up?

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:25:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

IA-01, KY-04, NM-01 (none / 0)

The numbers on those three races seem really out of whack to me.

by beeswax49 on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 01:44:29 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

My brother is pretty much of a staunch Republican (mostly because of his wife). He lives half the year in NC-11 and half the year in FL-14 (where he votes). He sees the Dems winning a landslide, which is good news for Shuler.

There is still plenty of time to go, but overall it is looking good.

BTW, House incumbents poll 5 to 10 points ahead of the national ticket routinely. Coming from a 48% Kerry district is not the kiss of death, long term. Look at the Dakotas. First, win the election by as wide a margin as we can pull off and then count on W to unite the Democrats. That is one thing he's pretty good at.

by David Kowalski on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:14:29 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

FL-14?? With foregone conclusions in the Gov. and Senate races?? Tell him to register and vote in NC-11 this year!!

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:38:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 1)

We're on the ground in New York, and things look good. People are receptive and we're getting a lot of yeses as we knock on doors and phonebank.

That said, the Rs have a lot of money and are still expert at launching smears. I think we can win, but I don't think we've won yet.

by SteveWFP on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:42:58 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

The republicans are terrified of an open attack on the Foley issue. LANNY DAVIS is echoeing the republican line.

Take a look at this. Sheffer is kicking his ass.
http://www.politicstv.com/blog/?p=1167

They are afraid of taking this directly.

hat tip atrios.

by smacfarl on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:48:15 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

You know they are in real trouble when they refer to attorney General as "judge" Gonzalez. Wishful thinking on brads part.

Any responses to the ad idea above?

by smacfarl on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:49:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Perhaps Zogby polled IA-02 instead of IA-01, because those results are absolutely ridiculous.

by KainIIIC on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 02:55:33 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

That number would make tons on sense in IA-02.

by rexus on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:50:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Agree, in IA-02 those numbers would be credible. (none / 0)

by DCCyclone on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:04:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

The Democrats will not take back the House. Not because it's not what the people want, but because the Rethuglicans are pulling (and will pull, on election day) the same dirty tricks they've pulled in the last 3 national elections (voter intimidation, voter suppression, etc.), and when all of that isn't enough, let us not forget that 80% of the votes in this country are counted by machines made by two companies with longstanding ties to the Republican party. Those machines will be rigged, the Republicans will miraculously 'win', and the corporate media will not question it. The question is, will the Democrats question any of it or simply roll over and play dead as they did in the last couple of elections?

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 03:10:19 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 1)

Enough of the conspiracy theories. Democrats lost the last two elections because our voters were less motivated than Republican voters and Republicans had a stronger GOTV effort. I don't know about the latter, but this time around we certainly have them beat on the former. People are clearly tired of the Bush administration's shenanigans, and I'm guessing there will be a lot of Republicans who won't show up on Election Day. They're starting to realize that this Congress has done nothing for them and, what's more, is embarrassing the country (see: Foley scandal.) There is only so much people will put up with; don't simply say things like "Republicans will steal the election no matter how hard we work." That does nothing for us.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 04:25:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

I agree. Despite the "irregularities" and other problems, and some politically motivated bullshit (Ken Blackwell deciding only to accept voter registrations on 80 pound paper stock), that stuff is basically a distraction in terms of trying to win elections. Yes, we have real problems there that need fixing, but it's not for the most part why we've lost elections. We're going to win this time. Both houses.

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:41:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Yep. There have been some irregularities, but I don't think the irregularities alone are enough to explain our losses in the last few years.

This year just feels different from 2002 or 2004. I thought we were going to win in both of those years, but we got blindsided in the end. But those were both years when the GOP had a motivated base and a convenient wedge issue on which to hang Democrats. This year there's no such issue (at least, not one that they can hang Democrats on; there are plenty to hang themselves with) and the country is beginning to see what six years of Republican control of all branches of government has done to this country.

There were some Congressional Republicans who actually secretly were worried about Bush winning the 2004 election because they were afraid that if he did 2006 would be a bad year for them.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:15:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

You thought we were going to win. So did I, so did anyone, then, somehow, we "lost". Why is it so implausible that this scenario is going to play out again?

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:25:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The usual winner (none / 0)

In 2004, the incumbent President won.
Perhaps you were thinking that because
Bush I lost after one term that Bush II
would also. No, Reagan/Bush I was the
actually an anamoly -- a 12-year term.

The usual pattern has been two terms
of (R)s followed by two terms of (D)s --
Eisenhower (R),
Kennedy/Johnson (D),
Nixon/Ford (R),
Carter (D) one term,
Reagan/Bush (R) three terms,
Clinton (D),
Bush II (R).

Of course, historical patterns like this
don't always hold -- but like the man said,
that's the way to bet!

In Congress, we should have gained seats
in 2002 and maybe 2004, going by historical patterns. Here I believe the familiar phrase
is correct: "9/11 changed everything."

But by now 9/11 has sort of worn off, and
things are getting back to normal.

The normal historical pattern is for the
party out of power to gain a lot of seats
in the 6th year of the incumbent President's
term. We're going to see that this year.
I'll bet on it.

by Woody on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:51:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Dream on. If the Democrats do somehow win the House (I doubt they'll win the Senate), progressive author/blogger Thom Hartmann has learned from a Republican insider that the Republican strategy will be to accuse DEMOCRATS of election fraud. The Democrats will have yet another issue taken away from them. This is why the Democrats should be talking about this NOW, before the coming shenanigans.

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:23:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (1.00 / 2)

Dream on. Read "Fooled Again" by Mark Crispin Miller if you don't believe me. If you're not willing to accept that, read "What Went Wrong in Ohio" by Rep. John Conyers. Read the pieces by Robert F. Kennedy that have appeared in Rolling Stone. If what I'm saying is mere "Conspiracy Theory" why did Max Cleland lose in Georgia in 2002 by seven points even though polls showed him leading by six points? Why did Democrat Roy Barnes lose by five points even though he was leading Sonny Perdue by eleven points? Could the fact that this was Georgia's first all-Diebold election, praytell, have anything to do with it? And those are just two examples. After all the lying and corruption this administration has engaged in, why is it somehow implausible that they would steal elections as well?

Read Crispin Miller's latest essay "The Elephant in the Polling Booth" if you dare:

http://www.washingtonspectator.com/artic les/20061001elephant_3.cfm

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:17:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (3.00 / 2)

Dude, why are you being such a dick about everything? Seriously. The ONLY things you say have to do with this conspiracy theory. Are you saying we should just give up? That wouldn't help.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:34:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

I don't know that I'm being a dick so much as trying to wake people up! And I don't think we should give up, I think we should vote and vote in large numbers, that way when (if?) the election gets stolen again, it will be harder for Republicans to claim victory. And if (when?) the election gets stolen again, I don't think we should accept it, I think we ought to go to Washington DC and refuse leave until we get a re-vote ala the Ukraine. Read the things that I mentioned then we'll talk about this being a "conspiracy theory" or not.

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:47:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

I did read them.

I was more critical of the general tone of your posts. Saying things like "dream on" and calling Democrats "deluded" are generally not ways to get people to see things your way.

Here's my take on the last two elections:

2002: Paul Wellstone died a week before the election. Funeral turned into political rally, including booing Trent Lott. This was broadcast on national TV, and many people didn't like what they saw. Plus you had the residual effects of September 11, troops being sent to Iraq (which many Democrats, BTW, voted for), and people being overly patriotic.

I'm willing to believe Georgia. But Georgia has a lot of new residents who probably hadn't voted in Georgia before, probably didn't get polled as "likely" or even "registered" voters, but the GOP did a massive turnout effort there. Not to mention that a bunch of people in Georgia, IIRC, were peeved at the Democrats' attempt at gerrymandering the House map.

2004: Gay marriage. Massachusetts Supreme Court says gay marriage is legal, Republicans freak out, try to pass FMA and fail, so they blame Democrats who voted against it. Then they get gay marriage bans on the ballot in a bunch of states, homophobes who don't usually vote come out to vote because they don't want gays to get married and, while they're there, vote Republican.

I'm not saying it's impossible that Republicans are stealing elections. Hell, knowing Republicans I wouldn't put it past them to do such a thing. What I'm saying is that there are other plausible explanations for why we're losing, and we can't just sit back and blame this on voting machines.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:04:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Well, perhaps deluded was too strong a word, but I do think a lot of Democrats (including John Kerry himself) are in denial about this issue. And the sooner we get out of denial and take this seriously, the better off we'll be.

Again, Bob, I urge you and all true patriots to read "Fooled Again". Read the articles by Bobby Kennedy in Rolling Stone. Fooled Again aptly demonstrates that Bush 're-election' is questionable at best, and Kennedy's articles go into more detail on what went wrong in Ohio and call into question the security of electronic voting machines.

http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/sto ry/10586714/was_the_2004_election_stolen
http://www.rollingstone.com/politics/sto ry/11717105/robert_f_kennedy_jr__will_th e_next_election_be_hacked

Bottom line, despite how well it's looking for us, don't be too surprised if late November 7th or early November 8th, we're told that the Republicans retain control of both houses of Congress. I hope I'm proven wrong, but I fear that I won't be...

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 10:07:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Right. The issue, though, is that this year the Republicans have so many problems that people will know that something strange is going on if Democrats don't make substantial gains in Congress.

Of course -- living in a "red" state, I know many of the people who voted to put Bush in the White House (both times.) Yes, there are actually people out there who believe many of the same things that Bush does. They're numerous, and they're growing, since Republicans tend to have more kids (from what I can tell) and it's becoming harder for them to send their kids to college (where they might actually learn, you know, progressive ideas.)

And my name's Tom, not Bob.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 11:42:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Sherrod Brown, a liberal Democrat, was Ohio Secretary of State for eight years (1983-91). He has disavowed most of the pieces you cite as unrealistic. He understands how the election process works in Ohio, and he has said that conspiracy theories of massive, deliberate, pre-meditated theft of the 2004 election are simply not plausible. I saw him explain this in person at a book signing, and I trust Sherrod Brown.

by Sandwich Repairman on Mon Oct 16, 2006 at 07:45:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Actually Tom, Trent Lott was not booed. That was a Republican fabrication. Al Franken has done a good job of documenting the Wellstone memorial and its aftermath in Lies and the Lying Liars Who Tell Them. It had more to do with the incredible earth-shattering grief felt by Rick Kahn and rushing to identify 8 bodies, assemble a private and a public funeral, arrange burials, stop a huge, frenetic campaign in its final days--all in a matter of 3 days with virtually no sleep. (Paul died Friday, the last body was not identified until Sunday (by process of elimination because it had been so badly destroyed), the private funeral was Monday and the public one Tuesday)

I was at the Wellstone memorial. I can't begin to describe the intense emotions everyone was feeling. Rick Kahn, in his profound, scattered, sleep-deprived grief, went over the line in a speech no one had time to vet (none of them were). The Republicans, already having met to strategize on how to keep Wellstone's death from being a repeat of Mel Carnahan's (which was 6 years ago tonight), instantly turned logic on its head and made Democrats out to be exploiting Paul's death for political gain. Psychologists call this "projection". The 20,000 people at Williams Arena were merely remembering Paul, Sheila, Marcia, Tom, Will, and Mary. The Republicans beat us to the airwaves (easy to do in the condition Democrats were in) and spun it while most of us had totally disconnected from the news and the rest of the world.

Don't buy their myths. I can't write an account of my own that would do it justice, but read the chapter in Franken's book. It's the most truthful and understanding account I've encountered yet.

by Sandwich Repairman on Mon Oct 16, 2006 at 07:42:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

oops, I should have provided a link to the first page: http://www.washingtonspectator.com/artic les/20061001elephant_1.cfm

by nmonster on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 09:20:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

Don't forget OH-15 where Deborah Pryce is only ahead 43-42 in the latest poll. Check http://www.ohioelects.com

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:28:01 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

More specifically: http://www.ohioelects.com/?story=dispatc h/2006/09/28/20060928-C6-03.html

by Sandwich Repairman on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 05:52:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

It's a Democratic poll, so I'm skeptical. Pryce as far as I know hasn't been implicated in the Foley scandal, but it could be interesting to see how her district reacts.

by Tom on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 06:11:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

NM-01 (none / 0)

Zogby's got to lay off the coke.

The last Albquerque Journal poll had them tied at 45/45 - IIRC ... nope 44/44:

from Joe Monahan's New Mexico website:

For the record, Dem pollster Harry Pavlides' late September poll has Patricia Madrid running one point ahead of Heather Wilson in the hotly contested ABQ congressional race, not one point behind as was posted here for a time this week. It's Madrid 46.6% to Wilson's 45.6%. The ABQ Journal has it a dead heat at 44 to 44, with both pollsters saying the race has been trending Madrid...We expect another Journal poll around Oct. 22...I believe that at this moment Madrid is very narrowly ahead, but don't get vexed Heather fans, today is not Election Day...

Patsy has the Big Mo going right now but Heather (Dingbat) Wilson has pulled it out before.

by ATinNM on Wed Oct 04, 2006 at 07:43:16 PM EST

Re: Zogby Polls 15 House Races (none / 0)

We're Just NOW beginning to see the Republican onslaught. Here in Colorado there's massive publicity for Bob Beauprez - a totally vicious series of attack ads against Bill Ritter for "coddling" criminals by plea bargining 97% of his cases.

That's absurd of course since EVERY prosecutor in America plea-bargains as many cases as he can reasonably do, because there aren't enough courts, lawyers or prosecutors to remotely handle all the cases if they didn't. The system would grind to an immediate halt. But you can't explain that to people.

Unfortunately for Beauprez it's just not working. He's still mired hopelessly behind.

But we can see the Republican tactic of absolutely desparate attacks funded with HUGE campaign war-chests. More and more of this stuff is showing up on all media.

Naturally once the Foley scandal dies down in a couple weeks they can really start hitting below the belt. But this scandal has really taken the wind out of the Republican sails at a key time. It will take them at least 2 weeks to get some momentum back and that makes them fall behind.

If Democrats go onto the offensive RIGHT NOW, and start airing some vicious ads accusing Republicans of harboring pedophiles you'll see some real movement. But, if they sit back and wait for the Rethugs to self-destruct like they usually do they'll be blind-sided again, just as they were on the torture debate when the Republicans suddenly decided to kiss and make nice.

by Cugel on Thu Oct 05, 2006 at 11:36:30 AM EST

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