The latest Cook-RT Strategies poll, from 10/26-10/29, begs the question (last week's numbers in parenthesis):

Generic Ballot, 1,764 Registered Voters, Moe 2.3%
Democrats: 52% (49%)
Republicans: 39% (37%)

Generic Ballot, 807 Most Likely Voters, MoE 3.5%
Democrats: 61% (57%)
Republicans: 35% (35%)

A thirteen point difference between registered voters and likely voters is extremely difficult to swallow. The CNN poll that came out today showed a five-point gap between registered voters, which Democrats ahead 54%--38%, and likely voters, with Democrats ahead 53%--42%. The two polls show very similar results among registered voters, but utterly incompatible results among likely voters.

The likely voter numbers in the Cook poll certainly show why Charlie Cook thinks a Democratic pickup of more than 35 seats are quite possible. It also helps show why the Majority Watch polls, in which RT Strategies is a partner, look so good for Democrats. Whatever likely voter screen they are using, that screen clearly indicates that Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents than Republicans and Republican-leaning Independents.

Democrats would win at least 45-60 seats in the House if they won the national popular vote by 26%. However, since no other poll is showing a Democratic lead of over 19%, I clearly have to consider the Cook / RT Strategies poll an outlier. Don't get me wrong--I hope it is absolutely correct, which would mean that we are heading toward a massive, pro-Democratic realignment. There just isn't much supporting evidence for this poll.

One positive to polls showing 26% Democratic leads, however, is that polls showing 11% Democratic leads look not only extremely believable, but probably quite conservative in their estimates. When Republicans have to be happy about being down by 11% instead of 26%, and keeping in mind that in 1994 Republicans only won by about 8%, the scope of our opportunity becomes clear. At this point in the House, they are fighting to lose by only 6% or so, and to prevent a generational landslide. We are not going to win by 26%, but with polls showing us ahead by that amount, it is very hard not to like our chances.