MyDD :: If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests On Missouri

If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests On Missouri

by Chris Bowers, Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 12:41:20 PM EST

I kind of saw the campaign breaking this way last week when I last made a Senate Update, and it holds true today as well: the path toward Missouri as the deciding state in the Senate continues right on schedule. Webb continues to rise in Virginia, and Menendez has seized the lead in New Jersey as well. Tester continues to hang on in Montana, as does Cardin in Maryland. With Ford struggling a bit in Tennessee, despite internals showing him up five, the Senate thus comes down to one race: Missouri.

The last two phone polls from Missouri show the race exactly tied, 49-49 and 47-47. You have to like Democratic chances to scoop up the final undecideds in a friendly election such as this, and with Jim Talent's re-elect and job approval both below 45%. Then again, you have to wonder about the Republican "firewall" of resources in Missouri, Talent's huge cash edge, and Republican turnout operations in red states. Not to mention that this race could hardly have been any closer from start to finish.

Watch Missouri, and watch it closely. For a campaign this important, it is stunning how little press coverage it has received outside of Michael J. Fox. I'm not saying that there couldn't be some surprises on Election Day that would shift Missouri's position as the deciding factor, but I am saying that it currently strikes me as impossible for Democrats to win the Senate if we don't win Missouri. I am also not saying that we have a good chance to retake the Senate--I still think the odds are against us. However, with surges by Webb and Menendez, the brass ring is within our grasp once again. Right now, I'd peg our odds for Senate control at around 10-20%, because we do have to sweep all of the close races in New Jersey, Virginia, Maryland and Montana for Missouri to be the deciding factor.

On the web: Claire McCaskill for Senate.

Tags: Senate 2006, MO-Sen, Claire McCaskill (all tags)

Permalink :: 14 Comments :: Post a Comment

If we may or may not be down in Tenn. (none / 0)

and Missouri is tied - I'd have to put our odds at 60% - 65% to take the Senate.

by Cleveland John on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:01:14 PM EST

Don't Forget Maryland (none / 0)

You guys are ignoring Maryland, where African American Republican Michael Steele just got a bunch of Democrats to endorse him. Maryland Dems are blowing it.

"Black Democrats Cross Party Lines To Back Steele For U.S. Senate"

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/con tent/article/2006/10/30/AR2006103001057. html

by Mister Go on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:06:00 PM EST

Re: Don't Forget Maryland (none / 0)

since when is 5 or 6 in one county "a bunch?" And why does it carry more weight than recent polling?

by torridjoe on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 03:47:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Control of the Senate Rests On Missouri (none / 0)

If the House and Senate end up closely divided, I wonder how much post-election manuevering there will be to try to convince individual Congresspeople to switch their allegiance ala Jeffords? I've got a feeling the months just after this election are going to be a lot more interesting than the months that preceded it.

by global yokel on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:08:36 PM EST

Lieberman (none / 0)

We have to assume that Lieberman is going to switch parties if he wins.

If he does, we need to win all the close races to have a majority.

I like what I'm seeing in Arizona too.

by magster on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:24:14 PM EST

Re: Lieberman (none / 0)

I hope AZ is possible.

BlueSunbelt.Com Netroots for the Sunbelt states robwire.com My personal blog

by robliberal on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 01:36:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lieberman (none / 0)

Two scenarios that I find interesting.

One, the Dems pull of a major upset and win a senate majority by winning the close races in MT, MD, NJ, TN, VA and MO. Joe wins in CT and plans to caucus with the Dems. Now what does the Dem senate caucus do - give Joe a chairmanship?

Two, its a 50-50 senate and Joe wins CT and plays footsie with both Repubs and Dems? What does the senate Dem caucus do - give Joe whatever he wants?

by ab initio on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 02:50:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Lieberman (none / 0)

He's not going to switch I guarentee it.

by blueryan on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 03:17:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests (none / 0)

This is why the info in my recent diary entry on MO GOP voter suppression of progressive voters is so timely. It all comes down to MO, just like it all came down to OH in 2004. You can read about the GOP's dirty tricks in MO here: http://www.mydd.com/story/2006/10/30/195 410/27

by nathanhj on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 02:04:29 PM EST

Re: If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests (none / 0)

Link broken - you should remove the whitespace in 195 410.

The truth about McCain

by nstrauss on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 04:28:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests (none / 0)

When does the MO race results start to trickle out? I agree that MO senate will be the bellwether if there is a Dem wave or not.

by ab initio on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 02:51:37 PM EST

Re: If All Goes Well, Control of the Senate Rests (none / 0)

McCaskill picked up 48% of the vote in 2004. Since then the environment has obviously become much better for her and she's run a more effective campaign focusing on the rural areas she previously did so poorly in. The GOP have more money and a better GOTV operation, but McCaskill has the best GOTV in the state for a dem and the stem sell resourch ballot initiative can only help her. Whether she wins or loses it's going to be by a razor thin margin. If anyone lives in MO please, please make this happen, control of the Senate probably depends on it.

by blueryan on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 03:24:26 PM EST

McCaskill (none / 0)

McCaskill's campaign is the most organized I have seen this cycle. Her campaign called me not once, but twice to ask if I could phone-bank for them, despite my protestations that I was sick and didn't have the time. That kind of organization is going to win it for them on the ground.

ProgressiveHistorians: History For Our Future

by Nonpartisan on Tue Oct 31, 2006 at 10:26:54 PM EST

Re: Missouri (none / 0)

I assume McCaskill and Fox will be highlighting yesterday's news from the UK that stem cells have lead to growth of significant chunks of liver tissue.

by Bob H on Wed Nov 01, 2006 at 06:38:36 AM EST

You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.