John Zogby has a habit of producing polls that, rather than trying to reveal the current state of public opinion, instead are provocative for the media and tell the person who commissioned the poll what they want to hear.
His latest poll out of TX-22 is no different:
Write-in tightens race in District 22
Sekula-Gibbs running close to Lampson for the seat DeLay held
Really? Gibbs is close? Is that what the poll actually says? Um, not exactly:
Thirty-five percent of respondents said they would vote for a write-in candidate, a statistical tie with the 36 percent support for Democrat Nick Lampson, according to the poll of more than 500 likely voters in the 22nd Congressional District.
Ah, I see. Write-ins are close. But write-ins are not the same as Gibbs. The poll shows that 79% of write-in voters intend to vote for Gibbs. It also shows that only two-thirds of those voters know how to conduct a write-in. With those two factors taken into account, Lampson is actually doubling up Gibbs 36-19. But hey, Zogby wasn't commissioned to make a boring poll. Remember those Zogby polls showing Chuck Pennachio ready to defeat Bob Casey in the Pennsylvania Senate primary? So do I.
The oddities of this particular race aside, the poll does show long-term problems for Democrats in this district. In a straight trial heat, with Gibbs's name on the ballot, she leads Lampson 53-40. Even if Lampson wins this race due to the odd ballot situation involving DeLay, clearly it will be a difficult seat to hold.
Uber-red districts are fun to attack, but over the long-term we can't count on them. Lampson still looks good to win on November 7th, but those hypothetical general election numbers show that TX-22 will, or at least should, be #1 on the Republican target list in 2008. Our path to a long-term majority is not found in districts like these, even if our path to a majority is at least partially found in not being afraid to challenge Republicans in districts like these. Republicans are expending a lot of resources to try and win a seat where we really shouldn't be this close to winning. That helps us in a lot of swing districts around the nation and, in this case, probably nets us an extra seat for a few years.
