Outside of the battle for Congress, and to far less fanfare, Democrats are virtually assured of a major breakthrough in the states. Looking at
Jonathan's Governors forecast, I have produced the following projected map of the country's Governorships:
Any state that is "lean Democratic" or better is in blue. Any state that is "lean Republican" or worse is in red. The six toss-up states are in purple (Rhode Isalnd is purple, in case you can't see that). Breaking down this map by congressional district, we get the following:
Democrat: 210 (24 states)
Republican: 185 (20 states)
Toss-up: 40 (6 states)
Whatever worries we may have about Congress, when it comes to governorships, Democrats are on the brink of taking a national majority, in terms of states, population, and congressional districts. In fact, we are practically assured of pulling off all three of those majorities in 2006.
The fun doesn't stop there.
The only national majority we currently have comes in state legislatures:
Currently, state legislative chambers are controlled almost evenly between the two political parties. Twenty legislatures are controlled by Republicans, 19 by Democrats and 10 legislatures are split (for those who are counting, Nebraska is a nonpartisan legislature). In terms of individual legislators, Democrats maintain the slightest 21-seat majority over Republicans.
While more Democratic-controlled legislatures feature narrow majorities, more than any other type of major elected office, local state legislature seats are the ultimate unknowns for voters. This means that what I have previously termed
"the generic advantage" will play heavily in Democratic favor this year. For example, in a recent special election for State Senate in Pennsylvania,
the Democratic candidate won a heavily Republican district by 13%. Across the nation, there have been many other examples like that over the past year as well. I expect Democats to hold most, if not all of their state legislative majorities, and pick up a few more majorities. Where control does not shift, Democrats will either massively increase their leads, or significantly narrow their deficits. We are going to win a lot of state legislature seats this year.
In many ways, whatever gains we make in Congress will simply be an added bonus to our gains in the states. It is in the states where we build our benches for higher office, and our benches had been severely depleted since 1994. It is in the states where progressive legislation will first appear before it is adopted nationally, and even a Democratic Congress in D.C. won't be able to adopt much progressive legislation as long as bush is President. It is also in the states where voters maintain their core partisan identification, and where GOTV operations preside. It is also in the states where the control over much election machinery and congressional maps is held. Controlling the states is the backbone to any national governing coalition. In 2006, Democrats look set to take clear control of the states for the first time since 1994. As much as anything else, that will stop the conservative movement in its tracks, and help change the direction of this country.
The fifty-state strategy is a beautiful thing. This is why we support Democrats everywhere, and why only targeting a handful of states with money form the party committees was such a poor idea.
