Currently, like pretty much everyone who isn't named Karl Rove,
I forecast Democrats to take control of the House. This is based on a huge amount of data, including district-by district polls showing Democrats ahead by around 20-25 districts right now (see
Pollster.com and
Electoral-Vote.com). However, what keeps me up and night, what still fuels my desire for continued and unrelenting activism, and what still gives credence to the worries in the back of my head are the polls from over fifty House races are currently showing campaigns within the single digits. Here they are (and yes, it really is this many):
Republican held seats
AZ-01, AZ-05, CA-04, CA-11, CA-50, CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, CT-02, CT-04, CT-05, FL-13, FL-16, FL-22, ID-01, IN-02, IN-09, IL-06, IL-10, IA-01, IA-02, KS-02, KY-03, KY-04, MN-01, MN-02, MN-06, NV-02, NV-03, NH-02, NJ-07, NM-01, NY-03, NY-19, NY-20, NY-24, NY-25, NY-26, NY-29, NC-08, NC-11, OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, OH-18, PA-04, PA-06, PA-07, PA-08, VA-02, VA-10, WA-08, WI-08, WY-AL
Democratic Held Seats
GA-12, IN-07, IA-03, IL-08, VT-AL, WV-01
So, what pickups do we have in the bag? Maybe AZ-08, IN-08, PA-10 and TX-22. Maybe not even those. Maybe there are even more seats in the single digits than the sixty I listed. This is just what polls, my gut and my personal targeting chart tells me right now. This might be the most fluid election situation we have seen in America in decades. As many as sixty House races will be decided by a very slim margin. In other words, these races could all very well come down to things like GOTV operations, election infrastructure, or even what the weather is like on Election Day.
In 1994,
Republicans won a majority on the back of twenty-five narrow victories decided by less than 10,000 votes. With 60 House seats in play, the size of any new majority we have will be determined by just as many narrow victories. At the same time, if Republicans hang on to a narrow majority, it will be because of a huge string of narrow victories. This election is absolutely in flux, and can shift dramatically on the basis of only a few points either way. Those few points can be our people on the streets knocking on doors and making phone calls, or their people doing the same thing. After 103 long weeks of work, this is where the 2006 campaign will be decided.
Eighty percent of the country probably lives within a one-day trip of at least one of the sixty races I listed above. Half of the country probably lives within a two-hour trip of at least one of those races. It is time to hit the streets, and for me to finally complete the second leg of the trip to my backyard. I'll be blogging live about my trips to PA-06, PA-07 and PA-08 this week. Next weekend, I'll be blogging about canvassing my neighborhood in my role as precinct captain. Almost every single one of you can be doing what I am going to do this week. It is time to make it happen because this is where the election will be decided. Find a campaign near you, and get to work.
Immediately.
Here are some other good actions you can take:
Let's make these next nine days something we will never forget.
