There's a week to trim that to 5. Given ballot positioning and GOTV, with 5 there's serious ground for hope.

Oops: delete that mispost. I like the decision of Lamont and Schlesinger to debate on Thursday, without Joe in tow: because it suggests a healthier kind of politics that's stripped of phony 'bipartisanship'. I can disagree vehemently with Alan's positions, but they're honestly held and I respect him for that (especially given his shabby treatment by the GOP establishment).

What's important for Lamont is to avoid turning Thursday into partisan mudflinging. 'I respectfully disagree' should be a big part of his vocabulary. 'I think there's room to discuss these issues with the opposite side, because politics is about reaching consensus but begins with strongly-held positions.'

That's to say, he should help Alan claim the role of true GOP candidate, and emphasise his position as the endorsed Democrat.

I've always thought that the 'X' factor in this race is the fierce commitment of the Lamont supporters.  They will vote, every last one of them.   I'm not so sure Lieberman can count on his constituency to show up at the polls.

In any other race an 8 point lead would mean the end but CT is so weird that Joe probably needs that sort of lead just to feel comfortable. Election day is going to be chaotic and Alan is bound to gain significantly due to ballot position.

you guys should go recommend that diary :)

its excellent

Let me pour on a heap of optmism in here, folks. There are somethings about polls that I've never liked. I thnk that they have a lot of trouble reaching poor, disabled and senior citizens, many of whom don't have telephones. They also can't reach the many people who only have cell phones.

I may be talking out of my hat here, and I didn't research it today, but I seem to remember that Lamont was around 5 points out going into the primary and came in 3 points up.

I'm sorry, but the way I read it, any support out there for Lieberman is very soft and half hearted. But all of blogdom is absolutely right on the essential question. It's the ground game, but the ground game is about more than stuffing bodies into the booth. Perhaps there is something more that can put us solidly over the top, in CT and across the nation.

Let this particular GOTV effort be a joyous reflection of the community we've become since Howard Dean asked "What I wanna know...!"

When the other side does its GOTV they have nothing positive to motivate them. Every vote is an against. Against investigations, against oversight, against, well let's face it, SUNLIGHT.

So let our voter turnout look like the "John Doe Clubs" from that movie Gary Cooper and Barbara Stanwick. Let it look and feel like genuine outreach. Let it look like this is something that won't go away after the ballots are cast.

I remember the day at The New School in NYC, whenDean announced the formation of Democracy For America. As I looked around the packed auditorium, my only thought was that Dean lost but we're still here, and we're not going away until we take our country back.

This is OUR moment. The first of many to come as we reverse the course of the nation. Let our GOTV look like we're all in this together and we're going to make it right again.

Lamont by 3.

http://teocawki.blogspot.com

I've never seen Lamont get much past the 40 percent mark.   And I've not seen anything to suggest that he has ever understood that he's running in a general election and not the Democratic primary, thus accounting for point #1.   The ads & message I've seen reinforce the reasons to vote for him but they haven't done a good job of addressing Independents who didn't vote for him in the Primary or those who voted for Lieberman in the primary to change.

Too bad.  I bet 100 ITY's on Lamont after the primary and the person I bet is going to be a real prick about winning.

Just as Reps are coming home to Schlesinger, so, I believe, will Democrats come home to Lamont when they actually look at their ballot. This will move Lamont above 40% and pull Holy Joe down point for point.

Strong performance from the Democrats in down-ballot races will also help Lamont.

This race will continue to narrow, which is why the netroots should go all in. We'll want to shoot ourselves if Lamont loses, not by a nose, but by a sliver of dried snot.

Beat Holy Joe
Beat him bad

The mistake that lamont made was going completly dark after the primary..

What he should have done was, immidiately call schlesinger and arrange a dozen debates...People should have known that for lieberman to not stand a chance, schlesinger would have to get at least 20% of the GOP votes and they put all their hopes on lieberman die hard supporter to flip to lamont..Experience is really lacking in the lamont's camp...Now, lets hope its not to late for schlesinger to gain major exposure and with one last debate, we can still hope for the best.

I read unbridled optimism here. It will take hard work to erase this 8%. Difficult but doable in an unusual year, and if any year is unusual this one is.

But I have to insert a dose of realism to some comments: Young people have terrible turnout.  I am delighted that they are enthused, but in past years when that was true, they still had low turnout. When you look at the data, there is a straight line increase of turnout by age, all the way to 80 years old. So younger people could increase their turnout a bit but the bulk of the votes are coming from older voters.

Second, poor and disadvantaged people also have low turnout.  Frankly it's hard to find time to vote when you have two jobs or inflexible employers and are juggling childcare and odd work hours.  The middle class have it much easier finding time to vote. So to get higher turnout from disadvantaged voters means lots of field effort to know when each voter is available to vote and if they need help getting to the polls or with kids etc. That's a big operation.

So let's not rest our hopes on enthused younger voters or the disadvantaged turning out without a lot of work on our part.  The polls are encouraging in many races across the country but we need to keep pushing with everything we've got and close the deal.  One more week.

I remain worried about this race.  Despite all the optimistic factors people have pointed out, 8 points is hard to make up this late in the game.  I will be thrilled--but surprised--if Lamont pulls this out.

Meanwhile, in Alaska, Diane Benson has closed on Don Young.  From 30 points down 4 weeks ago to 9 points down last Thursday, even though she's been outspent by over 20 to one!

Yet the courageous race by this Tlingit military mom whose son lost both legs on his THIERD deployment (after his enlistment was over, for Crisakes!) has sparked NO national Dem funding, nor much Alaska Dem interest.  Contributors at firedoglake have brought in almost 7% of Benson's campaign funds at this ActBlue site:

http://www.actblue.com/page/egregious

Frankly, I think a lot of the soft Democrats who are voting for Rell and Lieberman will vote for the Democratic congressional candidates so they can "split" their ticket.  Normally they'd vote for the Republican congressional candidates and Democratic statewide candidates, but I almost bet you there'll be a reversal.

Icky as it feels citing any of Kaus' theories, I think the robot poll effect may be borne out here.  I saw some douchey panel on C-Span this morning with Cillizza where they all repeated the same bogus stuff "Oh, he was a one issue candidate and that doesn't work in the general," "Even though I will completely contradict my own argument by pointing out that turn out was really high, somehow a tiny cabal of bloggers were the only people who cared about Lamont and no one voted b/c it was August."  "The Dems have done nothing to support Lamont b/c their so scared of big, strong, powerful Joe who's up 17 points and definitely going to win in a walk and then we can finally do what we really want--pretend this never happened."  It sucks that Lamont still has to fight the perception that he's somehow abnormal or an anomaly.  This, to me, was the biggest cost of his radio silence after the primary.  People got used to thinking of him in the terms he was cast in the primary.  He needed to start spending earlier.  But the good news is that it looks like people want a change, even if they're only willing to admit it to a robot over the phone.  Me personally, I'd be more afraid to tell a robot I liked Lamont.  I mean, how hard would it be for some yahoo at DOD or NSA to do robocalls to find Lamont voters and then make arrangements to get them cavity-searched whenever they fly.

Schlesinger's numbers won't hold on election day. People tend to get real conservative with backing losing candidates once they're in the voting booth. Remember how Nader always polled better than he actually did? That effect will more than make up for ballot positioning. Alan needs to be polling about 15% for him to draw enough votes from Lieberman on the 7th.