In 2004 some of the greatest signs of life in the Democratic Party came out of the Mountain West. This year, it appears this trend is spreading, with Democrats having a potential to pick up as many as twelve U.S. House seats (AZ-01, AZ-05, AZ-08, CO-04, CO-05, CO-07, ID-01, MT-AL, NM-01, NV-02, NV-03, and WY-AL), three Senate seats (AZ, MT and NV), and two governorships (CO and ID). Among these states, Idaho, which George W. Bush carried with over 68 percent of the vote in 2004, stands out in particular, especially given the latest Mason-Dixon polling out of the state.

In the governor's race, Republican U.S. Rep. Butch Otter leads Democratic newspaper owner Jerry Brady by a single percentage point. Republican state Rep. Bill Sali has a 2 percentage point lead over Democratic businessman Larry Grant for the congressional seat that runs from West Boise north to Canada. In the race to oversee public schools, Democrat Jana Jones leads Republican Tom Luna by 3 percentage points.

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Twenty-seven percent of voters say they have an unfavorable opinion of Otter; Brady's negative figure is 14 percent. Luna is viewed unfavorably by 22 percent, while only 6 percent see Jones that way. Twenty-six percent say they have an unfavorable opinion of Risch; LaRocco's figure is 16 percent.

Worst of all is Sali, who famously has been called an "absolute idiot" by Idaho House Speaker Bruce Newcomb, whose words star in Grant TV spots. Sali's unfavorable rating is 33 percent, the same proportion who see him favorably. Grant's ratio is very positive, with 34 percent viewing him favorably and 13 percent unfavorably. With voters hungry for change, those perceptions of the standard-bearers of the party in power are damaging.

Democrats also appear to have momentum. A Brady poll in July showed him trailing Otter by 19 points. Now, they're even. Jones trailed Luna 41-28 in July, and Grant has reversed early numbers showing him well behind.

I'm not going to pretend that I was prescient and saw these races, and specifically the governor's race, as being this competitive at this stage in the game. I'm also not going to get my hopes up too high in the assumption that this polling indicates that the Democrats are within a couple points of winning rather than within a couple points of catching their Republican adversaries with a significant portion of the electorate still undecided. In 2004, for example, I truly believed that Democrat Brad Carson had a great chance in the Oklahoma Senate race, with polling showing him either up by a couple points or down by a couple points but in the low 40s, only to see Republican Tom Coburn virtually walk to a 53 percent to 41 percent victory.

Nonetheless, the political climate in the country -- and even in Idaho -- is decidedly different than it was in 2004, and the late-breaking trends are not moving towards the GOP like they were just two years ago. That could change, particularly as a result of the politically-motivated decision to announce the verdict in the Saddam Hussein trial a week from today. But even keeping that in account, I'm significantly less pessimistic about Democrats' chances in states like Idaho than I was just weeks ago. And if this movement keeps up, folks inside the beltway will be shocked to see races  break towards the Democrats that they never even thought possible.