Likely Voters Favor Dems over GOPers on Every Issue

The latest Ipsos Public Affairs survey (.pdf) commissed by the AP and AOL, which is generally in line with other recent polling in showing a Democratic generic congressional ballot lead well into the double-digits, contains some interesting data on likely voters' impressions towards both parties. On all ten issues polled by Ipsos -- every one of them -- likely voters believed that Democrats would do a better job of dealing with the specific issue than the Republicans.

And who do you trust to do a better job of handling ...? (LV)

  • Terrorism: Democrats 43, Republicans 42
  • Iraq: Democrats 51, Republicans 36
  • Economy: Democrats 52, Republicans 39
  • Taxes: Democrats 47, Republicans 41
  • Healthcare: Democrats 58, Republicans 30
  • Social Security: Democrats 55, Republicans 32
  • Same-sex marriage: Democrats 46, Republicans 36
  • Immigration: Democrat 45, Republicans 37
  • Gas prices: Democrats 52, Republicans 29
  • Political Corruption: Democrats 43, Republicans 25

Now the fact that voters are generally more amenable to Democrats today and that likely voter screens are finding the Democratic base more enthusiastic to vote than the Republican base certainly play a large role in these numbers; surely they cannot be separated from voters' shifting overall ballot or party preferences.

Nonetheless, it's important to note today, well before election day, that voters are on board with the Democratic agenda. The post-election debate over what type of mandate voters have given the winning party is already being shaped today, and if Republicans are able to spin the results of the election (assuming, for the sake of argument, that the Democrats win at least one chamber of Congress) as a anything other than a) a rejection of failed Republican policies and b) a complete embrace of the Democratic agenda, they will make it significantly easier for the President to stymie Democratic bills without being upbraided by the political press.

So it is incumbent upon us to reiterate that voters are not only saying no to Republicans but also saying yes to Democrats. And it shouldn't be too difficult. The numbers are available to prove it. On every single major issue facing the country, voters trust the Democratic Party more than the Republican Party. The House Democrats' platform is wildly popular. Yet the task will not be easy, either, because Republicans and conservatives have much to lose with an empowered progressive Democratic majority in Congress that knows it has the support of the American people. The stakes are extremely high, and they know it. So we must not relent one bit before election day or in the hours and days after ballots are cast.



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Re: Likely Voters Favor Dems over GOPers on Every (none / 0)

They do not ask about abortion.

That issue is still the only "single issue" issue that motivates some voters.

Now we can guess that the people who have voted on that issue alone are disenchanted and will not vote or may just vote on balance. I'm not willing to guess that. Getting everybody else to vote is more important.

phat


by phatass on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 04:25:45 AM EST

Re: Likely Voters Favor Dems over GOPers (none / 0)

with all the talk of republican "mandate" starting in 2000, did they ever win the polling on every single issue across the board? i  don't think so. so if the republicans ever had a mandate (according to the media), the democrats have an even greater one than the repubs ever had.


by scottmaui on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 05:23:35 AM EST

Re: Likely Voters Favor Dems over GOPers on Every (none / 0)

This is a fascinating response for voters to trust Democrats more on:

Same-sex marriage: Democrats 46, Republicans 36

While race has been an unstated tool used by every reactionary from Joe Lieberman to Trent Lott, homophobia has been seemingly far more effectively utilized in recent years as well as being bluntly stated as such.

I would love to have seen this broken down regionally because it could put the lie to the proposition that Democrats in the South and elsewhere must use bigoted appeals in order to be elected.  Some folks would seemingly welcome David Duke into the "big tent" party if he would just proclaim himself a Democrat.

Best,  Terry


by terryhallinan on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 06:29:18 AM EST

Non sequitur, surely? (none / 0)

There is something screwy with the URL for the poll - neither right-click nor left-click gets it for me.

But when you say

voters are on board with the Democratic agenda.

that doesn't follow from the polling you quote (though it may well do from other stuff in the poll, of course!).

First question: how well do they know what the Dem agenda is?

I've tried to follow religiously the various editions of New Direction/Six for 06 and I'm far from clear what it is!

(The closest we've got to consistency is Nancy's current 100 hour plan, I think. But that hardly covers the entirety of the Dem agenda.

Plus: how many of those polled could identify the key elements of even the 100 hour plan? Was that polled?)

Second, the list doesn't take into account the strength of opinion. Folks have had recent evidence of what the GOP capabilities are (poor bastards!); they have no comparable evidence of the Dems'.

So their thoughts about how the Dems would handle these issues is based on - what? Hope, pretty much.

Bottom line: they are going to be much surer about their views on the GOP than the Dems.

(Or: any strong views they have on the Dems are more likely to change when actual evidence starts to appear from a Dem-controlled 110th.)

I believe, therefore, that the numbers in your piece do not support (or are only weak evidence of) your suggestion that voters are supporting Dems rather than merely opposing the GOP.


by skeptic06 on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 07:38:53 AM EST

Re: National Issues Polls (none / 0)

At the risk of being the wet blanket, let me point out a couple of cautionary notes:

If we win the House, it will probably be by a pretty small margin, and we will have a very ideologically diverse Dem caucus. While we're finally headed in the right direction, it'll be a couple more cycles before the House is "progressive".  Meanwhile, expect to hear constantly about the divisiveness and lack of coherence in the Democratic caucus.

On the other hand, if we handled this right, we could make a strong case for what a National Unity government, led by Democrats, could look like. In the process, we could pre-empt the phony "bipartisanship' pushed by Broder, Ignatius, Lieberman, McCain et al.

Next, it doesn't matter what issues polls prove. The GOP will spin what it wants to spin regardless, and the Beltway media will enable them. If you listened to NPR this morning with Bush spewing nonsense, interrupted only by the NPR reporter announcing uncritically what the next line of attack would be, followed by Ken Rudin and Mara Liasson pushing the Rove/Mehlman election talking points, followed by Steve Innskeep's aggressive questioning of Howard Dean, in a voice practically dripping with hostility, you'll have heard how it's going to be. Imagine, ABC, NBC, & Katie Cutesie. Then there's cable, and we haven't even gotten to talk radio or the print pundits.

The media (MSM?, Old Media?, Establishment Media?, Beltway Media? Corporate Media? Pick one) will be against us, no matter what. We need to push back aggressively. Work the refs, as Alterman would say. Angrily denounce this "liberal media" myth. Our people in Washington seem to cower and hope it just gets better. It won't. We have to fight it.

As for the elections, it's still "if". We are not having an election. We are having 435 separate House elections, and 33 separate Senate elections. While we are certainly going to be better off than two years ago, it's still way too soon to pop champagne. House polling is a bit iffy, and alot of the races are still in the persuadable phase. We still seem to be outgunned on GOTV. One interesting thing Mara Liasson said was that the Gallup(I think) poll of independents showed that 45% of the I's had been personally contacted by Republicans, but only 17% had been contacted by Democrats. That's simply terrible.  Whoever is the "coach" of that team needs to be fired after the season.

It's reassuring to see that the American population is way ahead of the Media. The disaster that has unfolded in our country these past few years is finally going to be addressed in the next few years. We shouldn't fool ourselves, though, that the nightmare is over if we take the House by a few seats. We need a much longer term focus. Where will we be in 2008 and 2010 and beyond? Markos had a good post on this topic a couple days ago. I apologize for not being able to link it, but it shouldn't be too hard to find.


by farrellsports on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 08:49:46 AM EST

Voters who like their OWN Republican? (none / 0)

What about voters who would "trust the Democrats" and "dont like what Republicans are doing" -- but exempt their OWN Republican.

In other words, they "trust the Dems" but vote for their OWN familiar Republican candidate.

Won't this skew this polls?


by MS on Fri Oct 27, 2006 at 10:36:14 AM EST


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