Ah, Connecticut.  The land of steady habits.  It's fall, with leaves changing color and four vicious competitive elections flooding mailboxes, TV, radio, and conversation with invective and negativity. I've spent some time documenting Lieberman's campaign and pscychology, and dropped some of the focus on the state of Connecticut.  That's something I'd like to correct with this post. The most important point to realize about this state is how sullen voters are at being bombarded by television ads. They aren't used to it, they don't like it, and they are talking about it constantly.

This is an important point. I've been trying to figure out why this race is as confusing as it is, and how Connecticut fits in and differs from the national political scene. Why is a pro-war extremist leading against an antiwar Democrat? What happened to the voter pool? Is there a national wave here? I think, yes. So why isn't it showing up in the polls? Well, it did, on August 8. Voters here went for change, and they are now tired. Connecticut is a state that's not used to rough campaigning, and all of a sudden four nationally important elections are here using New Jersey style bare knuckles tactics.  The voters here are confused and upset by it all, and are rejecting these political tactics by sulking their way to change.

The environment has been intense for months. Back in April, Movon started running its caught red-handed ads here, and that sparked mudslinging from Republicans.  And then, through July and August, Lamont hit Connecticut, a revulsion towards the war and the Bush administration, and this geared up the rest of the nation for an antiwar election.  Ironically, the high intensity here early set the state up for a lull in energy, as voters have tired of the relentless robocalls, mailers, phone banks, commercials, radio ads, and media focus on elections.  The Lamont-Lieberman primary sparked bitter and personal hatred within the party, and that split has gotten worse.  Republicans face their own problem, as Schlesinger has split the GOP voting base with his refusal to back down.  Republican base voters don't trust Joe any more than we do, and they aren't happy with their candidates backing a guy who votes with Ted Kennedy 90% of the time by his own admission. It's an emotional season, and everyone's tired of the contests.

Furthermore, Connecticut is a small rural and commuter state that is not used to the spotlight.  It's not a swing state.  It has a tradition of moderate Republicans, from Lowell Weicker to Chris Shays to Jodi Rell.  The legislature often operates via consensus.  Voters are somewhat traumatized by their experience with Governor Rowland, who went to jail for corruption, and love the placid grandmotherly Jodi Rell as his replacement even though she was his Lieutenient Governor for years.  They love her because as far as I can tell she's a calming influence.  Voters here arn't really used to partisan aggressive competitive campaigns, and they are certainly not used to primaries and Senate races that are bellweathers for the nation.  So the combination of the national environment, the primary in August, the general disgust towards incumbents, and the negative vibe has a peculiar effect here.  I spent some time at a Stop N' Shop talking to voters, and the most frequent commentary was on how much they hated the advertising.  Several said, 'I want my TV back'.  Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson, and Rob Simmons are all endangered Republicans, and they are all on the attack in aggressive and sometimes cartoonish ways, and Jodi Rell is a popular Republican Governor who is nonetheless getting a barrage of attack ads.  It's safe to say that the clutter is pretty high, and pretty nasty.  

The Lieberman ads, which often look ridiculous on their, make sense in the context of this environment.  The sunset ad, and the lightbulb ad, give people a break from the relentless barrage.  It's so bad that it's hard to believe that voters are taking in much new information, since the press mostly reports on process stories about negative ads.  Even the politicians (like Lieberman) are whining about the environment, so getting voters to learn something means pounding it in there.

Another thing about Connecticut is that Republicans here are perceived as 'nice'.  Rell and Johnson are both grandmotherly types, and Simmons and Shays are well-liked and considered 'good guys'.  And Lieberman, well, he's just a mensch.  These right-wing incumbents are running very negative against their opponents, which makes an argument for change difficult.  It's hard to make the argument that these wonderfully nice people are corrupt, but the macro GOP trends are being connected and put up explicitly against the pork these people bring home.  Voters want change, but they are now finding ugly scenes everywhere they turn, and don't know who to trust.  The Democratic base is energized to come out and vote, the Republicans are mostly depressed, and if I had to guess, so are the unaffiliated voters.  There's so much information pushed at voters that those without strong party affiliations just want to turn if off.

So that's my sense of the state.  I spent some time with Chris Murphy, who's running in the fifth district.  The other two competitive races are actually rematches, which means that Murphy's race is the only Congressional race that has a new candidate in the fray.  Johnson hasn't had to run a competitive race in her newly drawn district, and she is incredibly angry that someone is challenging her.  She's been in Congress for 24 years, with her soul consumed by the DC.  She likes being in Congress, she likes her life, and in her core she doesn't see why being a Republican and supporting Bush should be a problem for voters.  It's very similar to Shays and Lieberman - her campaign slogan should be 'how DARE they!'

Her opponent is quite a contrast.  Chris Murphy is 33, a grassroots-y style politician who has served in the state legislature for eight years, with a focus on health care.  He's also funny, and I value that in a politician.  A major problem for a lot of Democrats in DC is that they don't sound particularly human.  They are human, of course, they are just people who have designed their personalities around the needs of local news, which is both tacky and uninteresting. If you live in Connecticut's 5th district, you should help out his campaign. It's hard to get through the mass media sludge, and volunteering is the best cudgel we have.

All in all, despite the disgust, voters realize this election is important. In the final two weeks, the war is coming front and center back to Connecticut. Yes, there's a negative political environment, and yes there's pointless bickering and corruption, and yes, the Democratic Party has not unified behind Lamont, but at the end of the day the war looms as a large reality that cannot be denied. I think there's going to be a shift in the next few weeks as voters begin to focus on the election, yet again, and the war. This is the one state in the country that has already had their election, and now they are having their do-over. In other words, the national wave crashed here already, and voters are now sulking their way to change.