I have updated the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 and things look to me a little something like this...

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

First, a few moves. South Carolina, which I had been watching since a close SurveyUSA poll, is now off the board with the Mark Sanford at over 55 percent support. Rhode Island, which had been a toss-up, should not be considered "leans Republican" given the fairly solid lead by Don Carcieri (though the race is not yet over, naturally). And Colorado now moves ahead of Massachusetts on the list of potential Democratic pickups, partially because Bill Ritter is polling better and better and partially because some of Kerry Healey's hits on Deval Patrick are taking some toll. Ohio and and Maryland appear to be solidifying for the Dems, the former in particular because the baseless attacks on Ted Strickland's sexuality appear to be backfiring on Ken Blackwell. Finally, Florida stays in the "likely Republican" category, but is now a race to keep an eye on given recent polling.

Safe Democratic 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

Likely Democratic 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 4. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Leans Democratic 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley).

Toss-Up 7. Minnesota (Mike Hatch).

Leans Republican 8. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty). 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus).

Likely Republican 10. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 11. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). 12. California (Democrat: Phil Angelides).

Safe Republican (In alphabetical order, by state): Bob Riley in Alabama, Jodi Rell in Connecticut, Sonny Perdue in Georgia, Linda Lingle in Hawaii, Butch Otter in Idaho (filling an open seat), Dave Heineman in Nebraska, Mark Sanford in South Carolina, Mike Rounds in South Dakota, Rick Perry in Texas (though the race should be interesting with two strong independent candidates), and Jim Douglas in Vermont.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

First, the moves. Pennsylvania is now off the board; Ed Rendell is just too strong, Lynn Swann too weak. I have also moved Wisconsin and Michigan from the "toss-up" category to "leans Democrat". These two races are still tight and could go for the Republicans, but Jim Doyle and Jennifer Granholm both have clear edges. Iowa might additionally show Democratic leanings, but it remains in a "toss-up" at this point. Illinois might be showing some early signs of trouble, with a large share of support going to a Green candidate, but for now Rod Blagojevich's negatives appear to be trumped by those of his Republican challenger Judy Baar Topinka. Finally, Maine continues to be a trouble spot for the Democrats as John Baldacci stands barely over 40 percent; however, Chandler Woodcock's conservatism and the presence of a third party candidate with strong support are keeping this race up in the air.

Toss-Up 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 2. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski). 3. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver).

Leans Democratic 4. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle). 5. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm). 6. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich).

Safe Democrat (In alphabetical order, by state): Janet Napolitano in Arizona, Kathleen Sebelius in Kansas, John Lynch in New Hampshire, Bill Richardson in New Mexico, Brad Henry in Oklahoma, Ed Rendell in Pennsylvania, Phil Bredesen in Tennessee, and Dave Freudenthal in Wyoming.

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

Update [2006-10-24 17:5:17 by Jonathan Singer]: Thanks for everyone passing on new polling from Massachusetts out today. I'll factor that in and have an update later this afternoon or evening.