MyDD :: The DCCC's system

The DCCC's system

by Jerome Armstrong, Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 05:35:06 PM EST

The DCCC has got a great website, Jesse Lee and his web crew have done a fantastic job. It will be an exercise, but worth the effort, to see how the DCCC's rhetoric matches up to their actual level of support for Democratic candidates in 2006. So far, it hasn't. [on the IE front but hopefully it is on the ground]

But looking through their website, and the three waves, it's been laid out to happen:

First Wave: 21 candidates
Second Wave: 14 candidates
Third Wave: 9 candidates

I guess it's sorta problematic, given the analogy, that each wave is smaller than the previous, but that's 44 candidates. Then there's this:

Emerging Races: 27 candidates

Together, that number reachs equals 71 candidates. That's impressive compared with the last few cycles, we'll have to see how that works out...

Then you have "Veteran Candidates" and "Women Candidates" on web pages. And with 54 and 51 candidates respectively, you are only left to wonder for how many of those veteran and women Democratic candidates, the extent of the DCCC's financial contribution is $0.00 this cycle.

...I guess at this point, what we can hope for is that the 71 get the support on the ground that's needed, and work to broaden the field and early support next time.

Tags: DCCC (all tags)

Permalink :: 8 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: The DCCC's Paper Support System (none / 0)

Check your math... 21 + 14 + 9 = 44. That means 44 races are in the three waves, with a total of 71 races.

by Tom on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 05:40:55 PM EST

Re: The DCCC's Paper Support System (none / 0)

Updated, that's great to hear that there's 71 being supported instead of 61!

by Jerome Armstrong on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 05:43:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The DCCC's Paper Support System (none / 0)

BTW, I just wrote a new House analysis on DKos. I tried to cover 34 races and I worked my butt off. Please give it a read. PLEASE?! PLEEEEEAAAAASE?

by raginillinoian on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 05:42:52 PM EST

Re: The DCCC's Paper Support System (none / 0)

i'll read it. is it under the same name as here?

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 08:11:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Looking at the "waves"... (none / 0)

The "first wave" isn't necessarily the most likely to flip; these are just the races that need the most support. Five of the races in the third wave are likely to go Democratic. Giffords and Mahoney would represent likely Dem pickups, while Hare, Hirono, and Sutton are likely holds. In the second wave, Arcuri, Braley, Carney, Donnelly, Perlmutter, Sestak, Space, and Wilson look like Democratic pickups or holds as well. I think the "first wave" is meant to represent the races that the DCCC really thinks could go either way.

by Tom on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 05:53:18 PM EST

Why does the DCCC hate IA - 2? (none / 0)

For those of you who may not know, IA-2 is one of the two most Democratic districts in the country held by a Republican, Jim Leach. It has a Democratic performance of 56, Gore won it by 10 (w/ Nader still getting around 4%), Kerry won it by 11. The Constituent Dynamics Poll conducted 2 weeks ago had the Democrat, Dave Loebsack, tied w/ Jim Leach, 48-48. Bush has an approval rating of only 35% in this district.
http://www.constituentdynamics.com/mw/20 06/index2.php

Furthermore, the most recent FEC report shows that Leach has $42K Cash-on-Hand while Loebsack had $40K Cash-on-Hand. This means that in a cheap TV market, a modest investment would go a long way to picking up this seat.

Also, of the 51 seats listed as Tier 2 or better on mydd.com, this is the ONLY race not listed amongst the DCCC's 71 takeover prospects. http://www.mydd.com/images/user/217/Hous e_Forecast_2006.htm

All of this begs the question, What the Heck is the DCCC thinking?

When there is a tidal wave of anti-Bush, anti-Republican Congress, wouldn't it make sense to invest resources in a district that is overwhelmingly Democratic, but just happens to have a so-called "moderate" Republican for a Congressman?

When looking at the DCCC's Emerging Races Candidates list, there are some very interesting districts that the DCCC apparently think it has a better chance of winning than IA-2.

For example, Nebraska-3, given a R+24 rating by Charlie Cook and 75% of the vote to Bush in 2004 is supposed to be more competitive than IA-2.

Or Idaho-1, which gave Bush 69% in 2004 and where the Democratic candidate had 72K Cash-on-Hand at the end of the 3rd Quarter is supposed to be more competitive than IA-2.

Or how about Texas-32? A district gerrymandered so that even Martin Frost couldn't win it, and in which Pete Sessions is sitting on a ton of money, is supposedly more in play than IA-2?

Look, I hope that we win all of these races. But when resources are scarce, and their seems to be an anti-Republican tidal wave, I can't understand why the DCCC appears to be turning its back on a very Democratic seat with a very vulnerable Republican incumbent.

by Nate Willems on Sun Oct 22, 2006 at 11:22:03 PM EST

Re: Why does the DCCC hate IA - 2? (3.00 / 1)

Funny how you mention Jim Leach. He's something of an enigma. He gets a free ride every election cycle. He is loved by free-trade pact types and internationalists and is considered a statesman by many.

Couple that with him never saying or voting in a way that really pisses off the Democrats, and maybe that's why he's handled with kid gloves. It's like the man is above reproach. Indeed, it's also surprising that the Republicans treat him the way they do, considering his not so conservative voting record on many issues.

Basically, Jim Leach is good for international corporations and international business. That's why the corporatists on BOTH sides of the aisle see to it that he get a free pass.

McCain is defining Obama, and Obama is neither defining himself, nor McCain. This is awful.

by jgarcia on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 12:03:55 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Kerry and the DCCC (none / 0)

I know people are zeroing in and hitting Kerry for not giving enough to the DCCC but maybe he's giving in other ways because he doesn't see the DCCC giving the money where he thinks it should be going...like to second or third wave and emerging races.

by carsick on Mon Oct 23, 2006 at 10:05:48 AM EST

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