Whoops. I forgot that I am the only gentile regularly writing on the front page today. Should have remembered that one earlier. Sorry about the delay in new content. Anyway, Mason-Dixon just polled ten Senate races,
and here are the results:
- WA: Cantwell (D) 50%--40% McGavcik (R)
- PA: Casey (D) 49%--40% Santorum (R)
- MT: Tester (D) 47%--40% Burns (R)
- MD: Cardin (D) 47%--41% Steele (R)
- NJ: Menendez (D) 44%--41% Kean (R)
- OH: Brown (D) 45%--43% DeWine (R)
- TN: Ford (D) 43%--42% Corker (R)
- RI: Whitehouse (D) 42%--41% Chafee (R)
- MO: McCaskill (D) 43%--43% Talent (R)
- VA: Webb (D) 43%--43% Allen (R)
It is pretty amazing that Democrat are not behind in a single seat. There are several close races, but every single time Republicans are either tied or behind. After these polls are added to
the new five-poll averages at Pollster.com, they will produce the following numbers:
That is not bad at all. These numbers give us four pickups--Pennsylvania, Montana, Ohio and Rhode Isalnd. They put one Democratic held seat in a toss-up position--New Jersey. Two Republican held seats are in a toss-up position--Missouri and Tennessee. While taking the Senate is still a long-shot right now, these polls would give Democrats roughly a 12.5% to take control (winning all three toss-ups). The best case scenario for Republicans would be to only lose three seats, and they would only have a 12.5% chance at that one. There would be a 37.5% chance for Democrats to win five seats, and a 37.5% chance for Democrats to win four seats. If the current range is a 3-6 seat gain for Democrats, then I have to like our chance to hit the higher end of that range, as the wind blows in our direction and tips most of the close races in our favor.
As Chuck Todd wrote last year, at a time when the seat-by-seat analysis was not nearly as favorable for Democrats as it is now (emphasis mine):
But as Charlie Cook has pointed out, Senate races never break evenly for both parties. The key for the party that's got that little breeze at the end is putting enough races in play to win all those toss-ups. In a neutral climate, the 0-2 Democratic pickup prediction would make sense. But it's hard to foresee a neutral 2006 environment. The makings for a Democratic advantage are brewing. There's no difference between netting three Senate seats and netting six or seven. Once the Democrats are in a position to net a third, it probably means all those slightly-leaning GOP seats are going their way and the gain will be closer to six than to two.
As Republicans unravel in almost every way you can imagine, Democrats clearly have the breeze blowing in their direction. While polling indicates that the odds of picking up three seats are the same as picking up six seats, you have to think right now that the actual odds are more in favor of a six seat pickup. I guess right now that is why
I forecast a five seat pickup.
Now, I am to ready to forecast a Democratic Senate takeover based on the "breeze" theory. In 2004, I forecasted a narrow Kerry win based on the Incumbent Rule theory, even though the final pre-election polls showed a very narrow Bush victory. I don't want to get burned like that again, and I don't want you guys to get burned like that again. Still, it is very clear that the Senate is in play right now, even if the odds still favor Republican control. That is a very happy thought to keep in the back of your mind.
Update: Tennessee and Virginia numbers changed based on latest Rasmussen polls.
