Is Kansas Turning Blue?

Well, not quite. But things are moving in the right direction.

Kansas is a thoroughly Republican state, as it has been since it entered the union nearly 150 years ago. It has been more than 70 years since the state elected a Democratic Senator, something it has only done four times in its history. Yet today, the state appears on track to reelect its Democratic Governor as well as throw out its ultra-conservative Republican Attorney General; polling released Monday by SurveyUSA shows Gov. Kathleen Sebelius holding a 13-point lead over her Republican challenger and Democrat Paul Morrison maintaining a nearly identical lead over the incument Attorney General Phill Kline. Peter Slevin takes a look at the environment in the state and pens the following article for the front page of tomorrow's issue of The Washington Post.

Nor is Morrison alone [as a longtime Republican politician now running as a Democrat]. In a state that voted nearly 2 to 1 for President Bush in 2004, nine former Republicans will be on the November ballot as Democrats. Among them is Mark Parkinson, a former chairman of the Kansas Republican Party, who changed parties to run for lieutenant governor with the popular Democratic governor, Kathleen Sebelius.

[...]

The Kansas developments coincide with efforts by Democrats across the country to capture moderate Republican and independent voters dismayed with partisan bickering from both parties, particularly from the Republican right. The spirit of the attempted Democratic comeback in Kansas, set by Sebelius, is a search for the workable political center.

Though yet untested in the election booth, the Democratic developments in Kansas reflect polls in many parts of the country. As elsewhere, Democrats and moderate Republicans say they are frustrated with policies and practices they trace to Republican leadership, including the Iraq war, ballooning government spending, ethics violations and the influence of social conservatives.

A long-standing split among Kansas Republicans has deepened in recent years. One fresh sign came from the Johnson County Sun, which said it would endorse virtually the entire Democratic ticket, including Morrison and Parkinson, after endorsing fewer than a dozen Democrats in the past half-century.

It won't be easy to change the culture in Kansas. It won't be easy to overcome the state's political history. But these types of shifts can come quickly, building momentum that is not easily slowed. Oregon and Vermont, for instance, were long Republican bastions, virtual one-party states, yet today they are among the bluest states in the nation. States in the deep South have seen similar shifts, though in the opposite direction.

For this reason it is so important that the DNC under Howard Dean has invested in Kansas, as it has in other states. I do not mean to overstate the extent to which the DNC's actions have fostered this potentially changing environment; the hubris and extremeness of Republican politicians in Kansas, as well as the political deftness of Governor Sebelius, have been at the root of these movements. Nonetheless, by putting boots in the field, the DNC is enabling Democrats in Kansas to capitalize on the situation in the state and help woo voters who had not previously even considered voting the Democratic ticket. And, who knows? The investment made today in Kansas by the DNC could make Kansas slightly more purple and enable Democrats to compete in more elections in the state in the future and, more importantly, force the Republicans to play defense in what has historically been a safe state for their party.



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Senator Sebelius (3.00 / 1)

please please please.  And Senator Freudenthal too.  And Senator Napolitano.  And Senator Henry.  Senator Vilsack would be nice too.  

I LOVE Democratic governors of red states.

Senator Chandler, Senator Bredesen, Senator Manchin, Senator Lynch, Senator Kaine.

Really the only way to win Senate seats in red states is to elect governors, who are running for administrative positions that are less inherently polar, less about issue checklists, and less about the famous federal wedge issues.  In a governor race, you elect a sensible manager rather than a checklist of issues, and so Democrats can compete and win readily in red states.  Then, after two terms you can run that absurdly popular Democratic manager for Senate, even though the federal issues that Senators deal with generally lead the state to stick with republicans for that office.  That's how we got Evan Bayh and Ben Nelson and, to a lesser extent, Salazar.  They're not the left edge of the caucus, but if we could install Evan Bayhs in oklahoma, kansas, wyoming, arizona, kentucky, tennessee, and virginia, we'd have one hell of a majority going.

Mark Warner is the most recent example of this maneuver -- run as a nonideological, competent manager for governor, then become so popular your state will elect you to the issue-based Senate anyway.

Anyway, if she ain't a VP, I hope Sebelius is a Senator.


by texas dem on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 04:24:34 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (3.00 / 1)

It makes it a lot easier for working pols to consider switching to our side if there's an actual Democratic Party organization, where the lights are on, people are answering the phones, and are doing the work of establishing a party presence in that state.

It's a lot harder if the party is no more than a label.

The 50-state strategy, and the effort to run candidates in every Congressional race, didn't create the conditions of 2006.  But it made a big difference in being able to take advantage of those conditions.


by RT on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 05:52:37 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (3.00 / 1)

I live in a big Midwestern city.

Some of my friends are Dems, some are Republicans, but just about all of them are fiscally conservative and socially liberal.

Maybe my judgment is skewed because I don't live in a Red State, but I really think that's the Dem formula for a permanent majority.


by Bush Bites on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 06:48:46 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (3.00 / 1)

It's worth mentioning that the Kansas Republican party has morphed two or three times; once from the abolitionist party into basically the center of the populist movement; then into the party of moderates like Bob Dole and Nancy Kassebaum, then into its current form.


by niq on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 08:56:13 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (none / 0)

You know Kansas has had Democratic governors in the past.   The majority of the last forty years we've had Dems:

Robert Docking
John Carlin (ousted from the National Archives by GW Bush)
Joan Finney
Kathleen Sebelius

Every now and then the Rebulicans nominate a bad candidate or vote in an incompetent and the voters correct it.


by drtalc on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 10:37:33 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (none / 0)

It's great that the DNC has invested in Kansas, but that is only part of the reason that the Dems are looking better there.  Sebelius is a large part of it.  She is a very appealing candidate (if a bit cold) who had been Insurance Commissioner at the end of an unpopular Republican governor's term.  She was a popular D in the right place at the right time.  Add to that GOP overreaching and that the state was a laughingstock because of the whole creationism situation and the environment was right for us.  The 50-state strategy (which I support wholeheartedly) was also at the right place at the right time.  The GOP had peaked and the Dems were poised to take advantage of that.

What good news!


by MDMan on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 11:08:31 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (3.00 / 1)

"Nothing's Wrong with Kansas."


by Crablaw on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 11:11:37 AM EST

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (none / 0)

A couple of notes about Kansas from a native Kansas Citian:

*In the 1850s, Kansas was settled by abolitionist Republicans, mainly from New England and mainly what we would now call evangelical Christians, who moved to the state to block the westward expansion of slavery.  The Kansas-Nebraska Act had mandated that Kansans would vote on whether to allow slavery or not, and the "Free State" abolitionist contingent won out, though not without a violent and bloody struggle with pro-slavery Missourians who were also moving into the territory and terrorizing the abolitionists.

*The Populist movement of the late 19th century swept through Kansas, upending the pro-business Republican elites.  The Republicans (including William Allen White, the Emporia newspaperman who penned the original "What's Wrong with Kansas" to oppose what he felt were Populist excesses) eventually fought the Populists back, but the Populists expressed their disdain for the elites in other ways, including support for prohibition, suffrage, and the KKK.

We see all these threads still playing out in Kansas today, which if you've read Tom Frank's excellent "What's Wrong with Kansas" you know all about, but if you haven't, briefly stated, working-class white Kansans remain fiery populists, and continue to express that anti-elitism in awfully puzzling ways, like militant opposition to abortion, teaching creationism in the schools, lowering taxes, etc.  

What Sebelius and other Democrats in Kansas seem to be doing is gathering together all the non-populists -- the Dems, moderate Republicans, and moderate independents -- in order to beat back the right-wing populist rabble who have taken over the Kansas GOP.  This isn't necessarily a criticism of Kansas Dems, but Sebelius, the JoCo Sun, etc. are playing that William Allen White role.

But I can't remember another time when Kansas moderates abandoned the GOP.  This might be a long-term realignment for Kansas politics, effectively turning it a very peculiarly Kansas shade of blue.  Which brings me back to the first point above: eventually the abolitionist evangelicals who stayed in New England turned into the liberal Democrats who we see today throughout New England.  It might very well be that some Kansans are retracing their steps back to that fork in the road where New Englanders went left and Kansans went right.  


by mattwdc on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 12:40:05 PM EST

No Credit Goes to the DNC. (none / 0)

You wrote: "Nonetheless, by putting boots in the field, the DNC is enabling Democrats in Kansas to capitalize on the situation in the state and help woo voters who had not previously even considered voting the Democratic ticket. And, who knows?"

However, as a boot on the ground, I can tell you that neither my boots nor the boots of anybody I know have discovered any DNC boot tracks out here in Kansas.

I wish it weren't so, but it is. Let's not give DNC credit where no credit is due.

The changes in Kansas don't come from the beltway. The changes in Kansas come from Kansas.

John Doll
John Doll for Congress, Kansas First District


EverydayCitizen.com
by John Doll on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 12:44:26 PM EST

Re: No Credit Goes to the DNC. (none / 0)

Corrected website address!

DOLL FOR CONGRESS, KS-01

Come see OUR boot tracks! COME JOIN US! We need your help!

Thanks.
John


EverydayCitizen.com
by John Doll on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 12:48:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Is Kansas Turning Blue? (none / 0)

In the past two days, there have been two big stories about "Phisherman Phill" Kline.  Both involved former Republican AGs.

The first involves former AG Bob Stephan quitting Kline's campaign over certain church-related campaign activities, particularly involving churches donating money to a for-profit company that's run by Kline's wife.

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/news/15 794275.htm

The other involves the most recent former AG, Carla Stovall Steckline, endorsing Paul Morrison.

http://www.kansas.com/mld/kansas/1580804 1.htm


The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach
by Shocker Jim on Fri Oct 20, 2006 at 11:14:29 PM EST


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