MyDD :: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Pickups

Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Pickups

by Chris Bowers, Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:20:14 PM EST

Majority Watch has six new polls. Check these out:

NY-20: Gillibrand (D) 54%--41% Sweeney (R-i)
NY-29: Massa (D) 52%--40% Kuhl (R-i)
NY-19: Hall (D) 49%--40% Kelly (R-i)
NY-25: Maffei (D) 51%--43% Walsh (R-i)
IL-08: Bean (D-i) 47%--44% McSweeney (R)
IL-10: Kirk (R-i) 46%--44% Seals (D)

Holy freaking crap. New York could turn very, very blue this year.

For the IL-10, NY-19, NY-25 and NY-29, these are the first independent polls in the district. The IL-08 poll is in line with other polls on the district. Only the NY-20 is out of whack with other independent polls, but those polls are several weeks old and pre-Foley. These polls show 100% evidence of a looming Democratic landslide. The question is, are these polls accurate? All have likely voters, sample sizes of 1,000, and precise district demographic data. So, I'll leave that conclusion up to you.

Also, forget what I wrote in the previous post. Take out the loans. Dump it all now, and dump it everywhere. We will pick up the mess after November 7th. With numbers like this, we need to throw everything we have into these elections, and then some.

Get active. Call for Change.

Tags: polls, House 2006 (all tags)

Permalink :: 36 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

"we need to throw everything we have into these elections, and then some"

Agreed. Forget 10 million. Take 20 million. Take 30. Take until the bank stops giving. We need to capatilize on this, pronto.

by beeswax49 on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:24:10 PM EST

Re: Six New House Polls Show (none / 0)

I agree with taking 10 million...BTW is this the last batch of the MW polls...we have to wait like another 2 weeks or never for the next 2006 polls?

by thorgrim on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:30:13 PM EST

Donating... (none / 0)

Push them hard! Do it NOW and we can break them!

by MNPundit on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:46:06 PM EST

Let's see. (none / 0)

Bean is up by only three, but is an incumbent. Hall, Maffei, Massa, and Gillibrand are up big, but are challengers. Message to Bean: you should have run left, not right. You might have at least run against Bush.

Jim Oberweis

by cilerder86 on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 05:56:08 PM EST

"Bowers Effect" Noted In Upstate Races (3.00 / 2)

Note: these came out right after Chris swept through upstate, so this may just be a bump due to his influence in the area.

Rochester Turning - turning the tide upstate

by bythepeople on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:00:40 PM EST

"Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

lol--maybe I should have come home sooner!

by Chris Bowers on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:22:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

suspect theory as he didn't come to the 20th.

by democracyinalbany on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:32:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

PS - rochesterturning rocks!

by democracyinalbany on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:35:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

Hey thanks, and thanks for holding it down in the capital region (assuming it's democracy in albany, ny).

by bythepeople on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:11:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

I disagree. Coming home so near to the election gives the GOP less time to close. Making you, upstate's october surprise. Well played!

by bythepeople on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:08:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: "Bowers Effect" (none / 0)

Polls seems skewed, but is a good indicator of a looming landslide. Next time you are at Monty's, I will get you a pint!

by optimusprime on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:42:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

Not to be a jackass so much as devil's advocate, but isn't the whole "throw everything we have into this year, consequences be damned" mentality exactly what Schumer and Emanuel have been saying and Dean resisting?

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:17:11 PM EST

Maybe (none / 0)

But, but I just wrote a post where I wasn't even sure the DNC taking out $10M in loans was a good diea--something Dean had already done. Information like this, however, suggests a very different electoral dynamic where winning now is the same thing as winning in the future, because we could win by so much.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Maybe (none / 0)

Along the same (semi-painful) lines then, does this make Rahm a visionary as to the shape this election cycle would take? Seems to me that his argument all along was that success breeds infrastructure, and while we can always build infrastructure, we can't always win three-dozen house races.

I'm not advocating for a "We Love Rahm" kegger or anything, just throwing it out there for consideration.

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:24:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Maybe (none / 0)

I don't think so. This is fifty-state straetgy stuff. These are districts the DCCC did not even put on their "emerging races" list until a couple weeks ago.

Anyway, I agree with BriVT.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:35:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

Not really. It's a whole new ballgame now. Schumer and Emanuel wanted to dump lots more money into targeted races, while Dean wanted to grow the party geographically. Now, though, it seems everyone's on the same page: throw tons of money all over the country and expand the playing field.

It's not so much that folks are coming around to Schumer/Emanuel's plan; it's more like events are speeding up Dean's plan.

Those are really, really stunning numbers in NY, btw, but it sort of bears out what I'm seeing on the ground. The NYGOP is in total meltdown. There are no signs, no volunteers, nothing. It's stunning, breathtaking to see.

by BriVT on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:27:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

I'm not saying you're wrong, but I don't recall Rahm saying he wanted the money for a narrow run of races (I don't recall him saying anything either way), but either way, aren't ALL these races targeted?

(ps. targetting on the Senate side seems less of an issue since there are ten or fewer races that matter).

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:29:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic (none / 0)

actually I do remember his list, and I remember what he said in interviews back during the summer and yes, he did want to narrowly focus on a small number of races. This was as I remember from an article in the NY Times, and around the time he was promoting his book early on.

by bruh21 on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:52:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic (none / 0)

That might well be true, I'll defer to you on it if you remember it. However, what I remember is that most of the criticism at the time wasn't centered on Rahm not wanting to spend on enough races, but on Rahm wanting extra attention for House races period. Whether that's what people meant, that's largely what people wrote.

by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 01:17:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

but either way, aren't ALL these races targeted?

They are now!

Seriously, though, Rahm did want to go the traditional route of deciding on the target races and states, pour resources into those areas, and make the marginal improvement that way, taking a narrow Congressional majority through winning swing districts.

Dean, otoh, thought that that strategy was responsible for the decline of the Democrats in many areas around the country, and wanted to spend money all over the place in a long-term party-building effort. He thought that spreading the DNC money around the country hiring organizers would benefit the party long-term and create a permanent majority some time down the road.

In all fairness, what's happening now is neither of their plans. It's just that events have conspired to make the entire country a battleground, so that Rahm can spend in battleground races and Howard can spend all over the country, and they both mean the same thing.

"This chocolate tastes great in my peanut butter!" "This peanut butter tastes great on my chocolate!"

by BriVT on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:02:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

Like I said, I just don't remember either way, you're probably right. But targeting races isn't inherently bad, we just wanted to target more of them which seems like what they're after now. So at the very least, perhaps we've made some converts and we're all coming together to a common purpose.

by Lucas O'Connor on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:49:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

Actually yes, Rahm was arguing loudly six months ago that this was a "historic opportunity" to permanently change the balance of power in the house. Dean blew him off.

Imagine if Dean had had the foresight to take Rahm's advice and invest in a solid ground operation six months or a year ago. Instead of a hail-mary last ditch borrowing for TV ads we could have made serious progress at cementing a Democratic majority on the ground.

Now even Chris Bowers supports Rahm's strategy, spend what you have to for a win now in 2006 and that will win the long term. To bad he doesn't have the grace to admit it, or the faith in the American People and the Democratic message to have taken the risk.

by souvarine on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 09:44:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

I remember Rahm making those statements. But I also remember diaries from Jerome probably last year emphasizing that every seat needed to be contested but the DCCC just didn't get it, and failed to grasp the natural beneficial residue.

Seems to me this is where the netroots has it's greatest potential impact. While I disagree the progressive netroots is responsible for energizing Democrats as a whole this year, no doubt the ability to fund and boost lower tier races is massive and cannot be understated. Frankly, I've been somewhat disappointed this year that many of those obscure races and candidates haven't been highlighted on the progressive blogs. Some have, but you would think there could have been a high profile "Race of the Day" or similar on Kos and here and elsewhere, intoducing the Democratic candidate and emphasizing the failures of the opponent. That could have made some of the emerging races more viable months ago.

by Gary Kilbride on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 11:06:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

As mentioned earlier, this seems like the quite accidental cross-pollenation bred of mistrust, animosity and good intentions. The postmortem of how it came about really should have less to do with pointing fingers and more to do with determining the best way to cast a wide net and effectively cull as you get closer to election day. It certainly wasn't my intention to spark such fingerpointing, but rather to point out that perhaps we can be a bit conciliatory in success.

by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Oct 19, 2006 at 01:15:58 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

I'm literally dancing at my laptop over the idea that Kelly (NY-19) may soon be a-gone! There's a core group of us who have been working on this race since Feb. 2005 and it's nice to see some of that work start to pay off.

by Take19 on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:26:26 PM EST

Re: Six New House Polls Show More Democratic Picku (none / 0)

take19 rocks!

by democracyinalbany on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:35:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

link to take19 (3.00 / 1)

Here:
http://take19.blogspot.com/

Been covering Sue Kelly and the NY-19 for a long long time now.

Stop by and check it out, great news and updated regularly.

-- MrMacMan

by MrMacMan on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

ny progressive blogs (none / 0)

once we make it to Nov 8th i'd like to write up a summary on all the progressive ny blogs that have focused on congressional races (and the complete lack of republican blogs as far as i know). Add any i've missed but they all deserve credit for getting on these "longshot" races a long time ago.

http://www.kingwatch.blogspot.com/

http://take19.blogspot.com/

http://20trueblue.blogspot.com/

http://takeback24.blogspot.com/

http://thewalshwatch.blogspot.com//

http://rochesterturning.com/

http://buffalopundit.wnymedia.net/ (currently blogging even though his home has been without power for 6 days...2 feet of October Surprise)

http://wfpjournal.blogspot.com/ (working families party blog)

I know there are more out there doing great work as well. Overall its been pretty impressive. There isn't a race in the state where a local blogger (or several) aren't working very hard to get a Democrat elected to replace a republican incumbent.

by democracyinalbany on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:24:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

all positive trends in NY (none / 0)

I've been watching all the polls in NY. While these seem a bit too positive they do show a continued trend in NY. I don't think i've seen one poll in 3 months that hasn't supported a strong trend for the democratic candidates. Not one has shown a gain anywhere for a republican.

its encouraging to say the least. . Now, let's hope we don't have any freak snow storms on the 7th.

by democracyinalbany on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:35:08 PM EST

Re: all positive trends in NY (none / 0)

I wouldn't be surprised one bit to see a complete Democratic sweep in NY. At the top of the ticket is a Senator leading by 27 points in the last indy poll and a governor leading by a completely rediculous 49 points. There's simply not that many people in NYC. Upstate is definitely blue this year.

Reynolds - already a goner (haha, seeing the RNCC chaired by Reynolds pull out was priceless...)
Meier - barely hanging on
Kelley - going down on the SS Reynolds
Kuhl - crazy and stupid
Sweeney & Walsh - caught in the tidal wave
Peter King - sweating bullets and running as far away from Bush & GOP as possible.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:43:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: all positive trends in NY (none / 0)

democracyinalbany -- thanks for the heads up about the great exose of Sweeney in the times union. This story shoud be pushed into other local media -- WAMC may be sympathetic and effective. Maybe Gillibrand isn't ahead as much as this poll says, but we only need to be above 50%.

Sweeney's adds have become completely negative, feverish and 'scattershot' -- really indicative of desperation.

by SaratogaProf on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:59:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Internal Polls (none / 0)

LOL at the GOP spin machine. Contrast these independent polls with the GOP internal polls that were released today:

NC-08: Hayes 49 - Kissel 33 (GOP +16 vs -7 in last independent - Public Op Str)
CO-05: Lanborn 49 - Fawcett 32 (GOP +17 vs tie in last independent - Basswood Res.)
NJ-07: Ferguson 48 - Stender 33 (GOP +15 vs +2 in latest independent - Tarrance Gp.)

I don't doubt that the GOP leads in at least some or possibly all of these districts (these are all districts where GOP incumbents were heavily favored at the start), but these polls are just stupid. Are these the results of their push polls?

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:35:21 PM EST

Re: GOP Internal Polls (none / 0)

I stopped looking at internal polls a while ago--both for us and them. It does make me laugh though that they feel the need to relese internal polls from those three districts. Strange we haven't seen much form the first or second tier.

by Chris Bowers on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:41:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: GOP Internal Polls (none / 0)

I find RCP is very good at keeping track of the latest polls. Of course, the internal GOP polls are going to be prominently featured there.

NJ Hussein Independent

by NJIndependent on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 06:47:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

emocratic Pickups (none / 0)

Great news! I've been waiting for some news on NY-29.

I suspect we'll all be singing Elvis' "Blue Chrismas" soon!

by lutton on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:57:59 PM EST

More Democratic Pickups (none / 0)

I wonder about these polls. Yesterday another poll had Sweeney slightly ahead of Gillibrand in NY 20, and today she is stomping his ass 54-41?

I'd like to believe it, but I'm more inclined to wait for the actual results on the morning of Nov. 8.

by global yokel on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 08:23:42 PM EST

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