I am not of the philosophy that when it looks like we are ahead, we have to pretend that we are ten points down. I don't believe that thinking you are going to lose motivates people to work harder. Instead, I think it motivates people into thinking that they are supporting losers. Further, my personal experience on the ground has taught me that thinking we are going lose has caused a lot of voter and activist retrenchment on our side (which becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy on Election Day). I also think that pretending you are losing, when you are not, is a denial of reality, and I am a proud member of the reality-based community. Finally, I believe that thinking we are going to lose when we are ahead helps to fuel the media narrative that Democrats are pessimistic losers.
While I see no value in pretending that we are behind when we are actually ahead, I also believe that we cannot have a wave election unless we run a more energetic campaign than Republicans. If Republicans and the conservative movement outwork us on the ground, then there simply will not be a wave election. The difference between a wave election and just a good election is very small, and is decided in the results of several close districts.
Dave Kowalski recently pointed out that in 1994, Republicans won 25 House districts by less than 10,000 votes. Margins that small are determined by ground games, voter targeting, and local activist excitement. If Republicans did not have an edge in those categories that year, Democrats would have never lost the House of Representatives. In fact, Republicans would never have come within ten seats.
The largest tier in my
House forecast is currently "toss-up / lean Republican," with 19 seats. Dozens of Republican-held districts that were not supposed to be competitive are pushing hard against Republican firewalls, and threaten to turn a good Democratic election into a generational realignment. In short, those are the districts that separate Democrats from an election that will determine narrow control of the House, and a wave election that will transform national politics for the next decade or more. If we can out work Republicans on the ground, we can win quite a few, perhaps even most, of these seats. If Republicans outwork us, they will win virtually all of these seats, and the battle for control will be excruciatingly close. Unfortunately, right now,
there are clear indications that we are being outworked:
If you're ever read a profile of Ken Mehlman, you know he is obsessed with metrics. For him, one of the most important sources of data is a weekly e-mail his political team prepares called the "Weekly Grassroots Report." It meticulously records the work of tens of thousands of volunteers in targeted states, counties and congressional districts across the country. The data summary allows the RNC to determine which states are meeting goals and which states are falling behind.
The RNC declined to share the most recent report, which was issued Monday. But two independent sources who saw last week's report professed to be surprised: not only was their no drop off last week, 12 states broke new voter contact records.
In a month, the party completed more than a million phone calls and door contacts conbined. Bigger states are putting up big numbers -- even Ohio, which lagged behind its targets all summer, has caught up. The RNC is particularly pleased with their progress in New Jersey, where they've rapidly set up a more aggressive version of their 72 Hour Program in light of the state's more competitive Senate race.
Fortunately, progressives have an answer to this:
MoveOn.org's Call for Change. In the most sophisticated phone banking program ever produced in American politics, MoveOn.org has created a program to call ten million key voters in 50 key House districts and more than half a dozen Senate campaigns. I have seen some good information on how this program works, and it is amazing stuff.
If you take part in this program, you can reach key voters around the country no matter where you live, and you can do so in a way that will make a difference.
We can't be outworked in this election. This is the biggest and best chance we have had to transform American politics in decades. It might be a couple of decades before we have another chance like this. Sign up to take part in
MoveOn.org's Call for Change now. We cannot be outworked in these elections, and your effort in these elections is the only ay we can keep from being outworked. Don't squander this chance--
sign up now.
