MyDD :: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Down the GOP List

Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Down the GOP List

by Jonathan Singer, Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:29:33 PM EST

I have updated the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 and things look to me a little something like this...

DEMOCRATIC TARGETS

In Massachusetts, Deval Patrick appears to be cooling off a tad, though he is still a clear favorite to win election this year. Minnesota is looking increasingly good for the Democrats, though they have been fooled one too many times in the past in the state to feel comfortable with their chances in this year's gubernatorial contest. Alaska appears to be becoming slightly more competitive, though Republican Sarah Palin still has a bit of an edge in the race.

Safe Democratic: 1. New York (Democrat: Eliot Spitzer).

Likely Democratic: 2. Ohio (Democrat: Ted Strickland). 3. Massachusetts (Democrat: Deval Patrick). 4. Colorado (Democrat: Bill Ritter). 5. Arkansas (Democrat: Mike Beebe).

Leans Democratic: 6. Maryland (Democrat: Martin O'Malley).

Toss-Up: 7. Minnesota (Democrat: Mike Hatch). 8. Rhode Island (Democrat: Charlie Fogarty).

Leans Republican: 9. Nevada (Democrat: Dina Titus).

Likely Republican: 10. Alaska (Democrat: Tony Knowles). 11. California (Democrat: Phil Angelides). 12. Florida (Democrat: Jim Davis). 13. South Carolina (Democrat: Tommy Moore).

Safe Republican: (In alphabetical order, by state) Alabama, Connecticut, Georgia, Hawaii, Idaho, Nebraska, South Dakota, Texas, and Vermont.

REPUBLICAN TARGETS

Iowa and Michigan move down the list for the Republicans, with Michigan nearing the "leans Democratic" category. I am also beginning to take a look at Kansas to see if Kathleen Sebelius should be put on the map (even if she is still greatly favored to win reelection).

Toss-Up: 1. Maine (Democrat: John Baldacci). 2. Oregon (Democrat: Ted Kulongoski). 3. Iowa (Democrat: Chet Culver). 4. Wisconsin (Democrat: Jim Doyle). 5. Michigan (Democrat: Jennifer Granholm).

Leans Democratic: 6. Illinois (Democrat: Rod Blagojevich).

Likely Democratic: 7. Pennsylvania (Democrat: Ed Rendell).

Safe Democrat: (In alphabetical order, by state) Arizona, Kansas (though I am beginning to keep an eye on this race), New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, and Wyoming.

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.

Tags: Governor 2005-6, Election Forecasts (all tags)

Permalink :: 20 Comments :: Post a Comment

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (3.00 / 1)

Pennsylvania should be safe Democratic. There are many professional political watchers here who think Lynn Swann will have a hard time breaking 40%.

by phillydem on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 05:55:29 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (3.00 / 1)

Ditto. Take PA off the board.

by kilb on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Iowa (none / 0)

I find it interesting that you moved Iowa down. By everything I can tell it is still tied, although the candidates are starting to act like Culver is ahead, at least according to Yepsen in the Des Moines Register today. At the debate last night, Nussle went into full attack mode and Culver just tried to stay above it all.

All I can tell from the ground in Iowa is that this is still very very close.

by bawbie on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:19:58 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (3.00 / 1)

still can't figure out why OR is rated "tossup." Which respected poll has Kulo with less than a 5 point lead? Rasmussen's polling has been pretty stable: Ted runs 47 or 48% in a two-way race, which understates the 4-6% Saxton will lose to the Constitution and Libertarian candidates.

This is a Dem leaner. A weak lean perhaps, but I've seen no sign this is anyone's contest, yet.

by torridjoe on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:33:33 PM EST

Rhode Island (none / 0)

Rhode Island is safe Republican now. Fogarty is nowhere to be seen. Even though Whitehouse is going to win, Carciari will win.

Sorry to report...

If all politics is local- then it's time to support your local Democratic Town Committee.

by JJonMyDD on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 06:48:35 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (none / 0)

Nevada

See my diary of yesterday about Dina Titus' great new ad. Tonight's live tv debate will be the most widely watched (televised live statewide) and most free-form.

by desmoulins on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:02:38 PM EST

I had bad info on the TV listings (none / 0)

A Las Vegas radio station gave out wrong info yesterday, that the debate was on local channel 5 and delayed broadcast at midnight due to a baseball game. I posted it in your diary but it was wrong.

The debate will be live on local KLAS Channel 8 at 7 PM Pacific time, and also shown live nationally on CSPAN. In fact, several of the gov races have debates on CSPAN tonight. I think Iowa is one of them.

by Gary Kilbride on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:34:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I had bad info on the TV listings (none / 0)

And channel 4 in REno.

by desmoulins on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:59:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (none / 0)

Michigan

Granholm has a 8 and 9% leads in the latest polls to be released and contrary to what DeVos and the MI Republican chairman claim, Governor Granholm won all three debates soundly. Granholm presented a poised, confident and reassuring presence while the DeVos couldn't convince anyone to join his pyramid scheme. DeVos even anered his base in the second debate when he couldn't even clearly articulate his position on abortion. For those who couldn't guess he's way out to the right on abortion and stem cell issues, giving millions to fund groups that oppose both. It's looking promising to me following from out-of-state.

by Pat Healy on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:15:27 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (none / 0)

Seems to me that DeVos seriously injured his chances in that debate. The polling seems to show a clear bump for Granholm following it.

by Sandwich Repairman on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 10:42:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move (none / 0)

Does Ken Blackwell's manuevering to get Strickland thrown off the ballot change the Ohio forecast? It's hard to win if your opponent decides you're not allowed to run (and has the singular lack of integrity and proper political office to make it so).

by libdevil on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 07:36:34 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006 (none / 0)

Unfortunately the margin of the gubernatorial race in SC has widened since the numbers cited in the forecast. A SurveyUSA poll (the only independent poll regularly charting this race) released today has Republican Gov. Mark Sanford at 56 and Dem Challenger Tommy Moore at 41. (A Sept. 28 SurveyUSA poll had Sanford ahead by only a margin of 4.) I'm sure no one really expected SC to be in play anyway, but I just wanted to note that a more recent poll had been released. Here's the link, via the local station that works in cooperation with SurveyUSA.

by Laurin from SC on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:02:21 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast (none / 0)

I am wondering why Jerome put that ominous phrase next to the "safe Democratic" governor's race in Kansas. Sebelius' opponent has no money (Cheney slithered in to Topeka last week for a fundraiser, but it was for Jim Ryun, truly one of the dumbest individuals in Congress).

Although we are a very R state (sigh), Sebelius won handily over a right-wing extremist last time, and she has been over 50 percent (though not in all polls), something Barnett has never been able to do.

by alicel on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:05:08 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast (none / 0)

Honestly, I've been wondering why he hasn't dropped it to "likely Democratic" before now. I might be wrong, but don't think I've seen Gov. Sebelius over 50% in a non-Survey USA poll. I still think she'll win, but I don't think it will be the walk some people are convinced it will be.

There are still three weeks until the election and that leaves plenty of time for more attack ads. The one thing you can be certain of is that there will be more, probably lots more. They'll find the money for the ads one way or another.

One difference this time is that Jim Barnett is no Tim Shallenburger. If you didn't know he was lying, you'd have a hard time seeing Barnett as a snake-oil salesman. Someone who doesn't know any better might actually believe him. Had Shallenburger been on TV saying the same types of things, he'd just have come off as mean.

People also forget that four years ago, then-Insurance Commissioner Kathleen Sebelius had just turfed the Anthem/BCBS deal. She hasn't done anything quite that popular this year that she can honestly point to as her own achievement.

What could really drive this race into the "safe Democratic" area to stay?

One potential knockout blow would be for a 527 to come in with ads that tie Susan Wagle around Barnett's neck. Remind people of the things she's pulled (like trying to micromanage college courses) and get people thinking "is this the person we want as Lt. Governor?" I think the moderates would leave Barnett in droves.

Yes, Kansas is a very R state, so much so that we essentially have two R parties because the cons and the moderates don't play well with one another. Playing one off the other is a stategy that can work very well for Democrats.

The Kansas GOP under Kris Kobach

by Shocker Jim on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 07:22:08 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Michigan, Iowa Move Do (none / 0)

Maryland:I would agree not to be overly confidant. Leans Dem sounds just about right. On the other hand, O'Malley has been leading the entire time by 5-6 points.

by aiko on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 08:47:31 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: (none / 0)

Oregon is likely Dem. In fact, Iowa and Michigan are the only ones really on the table for the GOP.

by admiralnaismith on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 09:29:47 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: (none / 0)

Couldn't disagree more. Oregon is at best a weak leaner, and more likely a tossup. Saxton has been closing the gap significantly over the past month and Ted just last night blew off a chance to play to a partisan crowd of several hundred and rally the base. Ted has been a mediocre governor (at best), is stunningly unpopluar (his 36% approval is actually two points lower than Bush's), and running the worst campaign I've seen in my dozen or so years of following Oregon politics.

Until last night, I never believed Saxton could actually close the gap, but Ted's incredible incompetence has left the door wide open. I still believe that Oregon Dems have the better organization, can run a better GOTV operation, and will narrowly prevail, but with the RGA throwing a ton of money into the state, who know?

by nate pdx on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 12:05:32 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: (none / 0)

according to whom has Saxton been closing the gap? His pollster Bob Moore? The notoriously unreliable Riley? Feh.

by torridjoe on Wed Oct 18, 2006 at 04:08:23 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Georgia on my Mind....and hopefully yours! (none / 0)

Sonny Perdue (R-GA) slipped below 50% in the latest poll. Although Mark Taylor (D) registered only 28%, and Garrett Hayes (Lib) is at 9%, Georgia has a general election runoff rule, as well as a primary runoff. Hayes at 9% IS credible. Perdue lied to the flaggers (the name we give to those who support the 1956 state flag, adopted to show solidarity with the segregationist cause) and as they are no longer welcome in the Democratic party, that element has embraced the Libertarians in protest.

Taylor is still low because many of the Cathy Cox people have not come around after the unneccessarily nasty Democratic primary. Also, polls show Perdue seemingly picking up sizable African-American support; will it be there on Election Day? NO!

A Perdue/Taylor runoff is still a very credible scenario. If Democrats can score a blowout nationwide, Perdue goes in with a demoralized party structure, while Mark goes in totally psyched up. Fundraising would start from scratch, evening the now lopsided GOP money advantage during the three week runoff period.

Do not give up on the Big Guy!

Take out the trash. Down with Saxby Chambliss!

by CLLGADEM on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 10:32:16 PM EST

FL GOV (none / 0)

I've been told that Jim Davis has husbanded a lot of his resources for a big end of the campaign push. I can't verify the accuracy that, nor do I know if it would be enough for him to win. I remember McBride was supposed to win in 02, but ended up losing to Jeb. And after Clinton won the state in 96, 2000 was beyond words. Then we thought Kerry would do better than Gore there, but he did worse. FL is a frustrating state!

by Sandwich Repairman on Tue Oct 17, 2006 at 10:45:11 PM EST

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