Some new internal polls from the DCCC:
- CT-04: Farrell (D) 44%--41% Shays (R)
- CT-05: C. Murphy (D) 45%--40% Johnson (R)
- NY-20: Sweeney (R) 42%--41% Gillibrand
- PA-08: P. Murphy (D) 44%--40% Fitzpatrick (R)
It is important to take partisan polls with a grain of salt, since campaigns and parties only seem to release polls when the polls look good for the campaign or party that conducted the poll. However, these numbers do not look at that strange, considering some other polls that have come out today. For example, look at these two independent polls:
- IN-08: Ellsworth (D) 55%--32% Hostettler (R) (Indiana St.)
- MN-02: Kline (R) 50%--42% Rowley (D) (Survey USA)
Both polls are nearly double-digit improvements for the Democrat in the campaign compared polls from last month. Heck, if we are within eight points in M-02, I am starting to wonder if any Republican seats, apart from the ten where we did not field challengers, are safe. There will be three more Survey USA polls later today,
all showing similar movement for Democrats:
Later today, SurveyUSA will release polls in four congressional districts which found "significant movement away from the Republican incumbent and towards the Democratic challenger, with the Republican's lead decreasing by between 9 and 13 points. Furthermore, all four districts show a shift in the party distribution of likely voters, with the Republican-Democrat difference changing towards Democrats by between 4 and 11 points."
Democrats in individual districts are starting to see the kind of boost that Democrats have received nationally over the last three weeks. A wave certainly seems to be building, but twenty-two days can be an eternity and we can't let up anywhere.
Update:
New Survey USA polls:
- NM-01: Madrid (D) 53%--45% Wilson (R)
- CA-50: Bilbray (R) 49%--46% Busby (D)
- AZ-05: Hayworth (R) 48%--45% Mitchell (D)
NM-01 is clearly moving Madrid's way. And how great would it be to win CA-50 after all? Busby actually has more money than Bilbray right now, too.
