We already knew things were looking down for Tom Reynolds, the GOP Congressman from New York's 26th district who currently serves as chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.

Following reports that Reynolds knew of allegations that Mark Foley had made inappropriate advances on pages and former pages yet neglected to do anything about it, Reynolds released a disastrous television ad that likely only added fuel to the fire. Two recent polls, one from Zogby the other from RT Strategies, show Reynolds trailing his Democratic challenger, Jack Davis, by margins fo 15 points and 16 points, respectively. And just last week, Reynolds no-showed on ABC's "This Week", a move that hardly instilled confidence. Now, Bob Novak (note the source and grab the appropriate grain of salt) is reporting that key Republicans are now effectively writing off Reynolds' chances at reelection.

A Republican campaign operative with a reputation for accuracy has put Rep. Tom Reynolds, chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee, on the list of incumbent Republicans who are ''gone'' -- that is, sure to lose their seats on Nov. 7.

Reynolds' prominence as a Republican leader who was responsible for handling Rep. Mark Foley of Florida has dropped him 15 points below his Democratic opponent in his supposedly safe upstate New York district, according to a poll taken by John Zogby after the scandal broke.

Reynolds was slumping even before the Foley affair made news. Republicans and Democrats alike try to pick their campaign chairmen from House members who do not have to defend their own seats in Congress. However, industrialist Jack Davis, a self-financed former Republican, is running a vigorous campaign against Reynolds in his second try at defeating him.

It's a real indictment of Republican stewardship of the House for the man in charge of the party's campaign committee to be on the brink of defeat -- according to his own party members. Not since 1980, when 35 seats changed hands from the Democrats to the Republicans, has the chairman of the NRCC or his Democratic counterpart lost in a general election.

If you want to help make a difference in New York 26 by supporting Jack Davis, head on over to Chris' new ActBlue page, In My Backyard, and throw in a few dollars to help ensure that the unnamed GOP operative cited by Novak is proven true and Reynolds is indeed defeated.