MI-07: Poll - Democrat Renier Competitive

by Fitzy, Thu Oct 12, 2006 at 10:10:11 PM EST

Many will remember that on August 8th, faux-GOP moderate Congressman Joe Schwarz was defeated in the Republican primary by Tim Walberg. Walberg is a fundamentalist preacher, funded and endorsed by the Club for Growth, the Minuteman PAC, Right to Life, James Dobson, and a host of other far-right organizations.

The Democratic nominee is Sharon Marie Renier. She's kind of quirky and ran an unimpressive campaign in 2004 against Joe Schwarz, losing by 22 percent in a district that went 45 percent to Kerry. To be fair, Schwarz was a popular moderate and well-funded. The fact that Renier got what she did-- with a budget of just a few thousand dollars-- is almost impressive.

This year, some speculation followed Walberg's victory on whether or not Renier could make the race competitive, but without polling data, no one could be sure. That all changed, with the release of the first public poll on the race:

MI-07 - M.o.E. +/-4.0% - Conducted Oct. 6-7 by Glengariff Group, Inc.

Tim Walberg (R) - 43%
Sharon Renier (D) - 35%
Undecided - 22%

More in the Extended Entry...

Yep, Walberg only leads by 8 percent. Considering Schwarz won by 22, that's an incredible erosion of the Republican base in a district gerrymandered in their favor. But as one looks deeper, it starts to look even better.

The poll was conducted by the Glengariff Group, a company whose previous clients include Congressman Joe Schwarz (R), ex-Sen. Spencer Abraham (R), and ex-Gov. John Engler (R), to name a few. It's not a Democratic poll by any means, so we can set aside those fears of bias for now.

The press release and cross-tabs are available here (thanks to Michigan Liberal). Below, some of the data:


I am going to read you a list of names.  For each name, tell me if you recognize that person.  If you do recognize that name, tell me whether you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion.  [IF FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE, ASK:  WOULD THAT BE VERY OR JUST SOMEWHAT FAVORABLE/UNFAVORABLE?]

3.    George Bush            (51% Favorable/ 49% Unfavorable)

1.    Very Favorable                    32%
2.    Somewhat Favorable                    19%
3.    Somewhat Unfavorable                13%
4.    Very Unfavorable                    36%
5.    Never Heard of                   

4.    Tim Walberg            (33% Favorable/ 24% Unfavorable)

1.    Very Favorable                    16%
2.    Somewhat Favorable                    17%
3.    Somewhat Unfavorable                10%
4.    Very Unfavorable                    14%
5.    Never Heard of                    43%

5.    Sharon Renier              (14% Favorable/ 9% Unfavorable)

1.    Very Favorable                    4%
2.    Somewhat Favorable                    10%
3.    Somewhat Unfavorable                5%
4.    Very Unfavorable                    4%
5.    Never Heard of                    77%

6.    If the election for Congress were held today and [ROTATE] Tim Walberg was the Republican Party candidate and Sharon Renier was the Democrat Party candidate, would be voting for Sharon Renier or Tim Walberg for Congress?  IF DON'T KNOW, ASK:  WHICH WAY DOYOU LEAN AS OF TODAY?  ASK:  WOULD THAT BE PROBABLY VOTING FOR WALBERG/RENIER OR DEFINITELY VOTING FOR WALBERG/RENIER?

1.    Definitely Walberg                    30%
2.    Probably Walberg                    12%
3.    Lean Walberg                        1%
4.    Definitely Renier                    19%
5.    Probably Renier                    12%
6.    Lean Renier                        4%
7.    Don't Know....DO NOT OFFER            19%
8.    Refused...DO NOT OFFER                3%

7.    Do you believe that control of the United State House of Representatives should stay in Republican hands?  Or do you believe it would be better off controlled by the Democrats?

1.    Republican                        37%
2.    Democrat                        39%
3.    Don't Know...DO NOT OFFER            12%
4.    Neither...DO NOT OFFER                9%
5.    Refused...DO NOT OFFER                3%

8.    In the past, would you say you have tended to vote mostly Republican, mostly Democrat, or would you say you tend to be someone that votes equally for both parties?

1.    Republican                        39%
2.    Democrat                        25%
3.    Independent                        32%
4.    Other...DO NOT OFFER                2%
5.    Refused...DO NOT OFFER                2%

There are a few important items to note.


  • Sharon Renier only has a 23% name recognition. That's right, 77% of respondents don't know who she is. But even though she's only got 23% recognition, 35% are saying they'll vote for her. Obviously, this is an area her campaign needs to work on. Hopefully, as name recognition goes up, so will her support (especially among the 18% undecided Democrats).

  • Renier is polling statistically even with Walberg in Calhoun county, is leading Walberg in Washtenaw county, and Walberg only has a majority of votes in very conservative Hillsdale county (though Lenawee county, his home and mine, is close at 49% for Walberg). Washtenaw and Calhoun are the two biggest population centers, along with Jackson, containing Ann Arbor's suburbs and the city of Battle Creek, respectively.

  • Walberg is leading among women in this poll, 40-38. I'm not one to make broad generalizations, but the conventional wisdom is that a female candidate picks up more votes from women on Election Day, and I'd be surprised if Walberg actually led among women when voting comes, especially considering some of his hard-line positions on abortion.

  • A pluarality-- 39% to 37%-- say Democrats should win the House rather than Republicans. Remember, this is a district that went to President Bush with 54 percent of the vote. As Renier's name recognition goes up, hopefully the party label alone will help her.

  • Perhaps most importantly: Renier leads among the all-important independent voters, 36-33.

    • Although Walberg is still leading and is still the favorite to win in November, this poll is promising. It shows that in a Republican district (where President Bush, somehow, still has a 51 percent favorable rating), a far-right GOP nominee can't manage to get a majority. Sharon Renier should be losing badly right now, according to conventional wisdom.

    Or, here's another way of looking at it: Last week, Vice President Cheney came out for a fundraiser with Tim Walberg. What was Sharon Renier's response?


     "Why are they bringing in Cheney against some little chicken farmer?" asked Renier, referring to herself. "Are they worried?"

    Sharon Renier
    Volunteer
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    For more information, check out Walberg Watch and Michigan Liberal.




    Tags: MI-07, Sharon Renier, Tim Walberg, Joe Schwarz, House 2006 (all tags)


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