"Depending on what Lieberman does...."  That would virtually guaranty Liebreman's nomination as Defense Secretary.

hey chris,

why don't you update the house forecast...that new bucket of polls sure should have helped :)

You still have Reynolds as a Tier 3 race, I don't need to point out the other ridiculous positions

These races with the exception of Klobuchar, Cantwell and Casey are real close. Races also tighten on election day as the hard core base votes on partisan lines. Since most recent elections have been pretty close, I suspect the winner will the candidate that was most successful in getting their extended base to the booth and depressing their opponents wavering supporters.

Will the Dem base show up in numbers on election day?

Loserman if he wins and I sure hope he does not will caucus with the Repubs. That's my prediction.

Despite the polls I still feel Lamont will pull this  one out. He sure lost momentum after the primary expecting Loserman to pull out. But hindsight is 20/20.

Its all going to depend on who completes the absentee ballot and shows up at the booth on Nov 7th. If the Dem base show up to insure their Congressional reps make it, then Lamont will also squeak by.

The great part is, we shouldn't be in an offensive position in the Senate during this cycle. If I recall correctly, 19 Democrats (or their vacant seats, if any) are up for election compared to 15 Republicans (or their vacant seats, if any) since, as I'm sure most MyDDers know, the Senate is never up for full election precisely so that temporary electoral mood swings can't affect both houses simultaneously. In most even-numbered years, for a party that has more to lose, even winning two seats would be considered a great success.

I'm at work and I can't pull up the numbers, but I believe 2008 is supposed to be a scary year for Republicans. They have some real embarrassments up for re-election then. Perhaps 49-49-2 in 2006 and then an outright majority with sympathetic independents in 2008?

Go here.

The R's have 21 seats up to 12 for the Dems.  Remember these are the folks who were elected in 2002, like Saxby Chambliss.  James Inhofe and Pat Roberts are up as well.  Some are getting old and may retire, like John Warner, especially since he couldn't continue as chair of Armed Services even if the R's won, and Ted Stevens.  There could be some real culling here.

Man, i think it is fair to say that the money that howard dean is using for 50 states strategy, money that is spend in states that doesnt even have one democratic challeneger contending, could be used better for a strong GOTV.

If we fall short of taking over the senate by 1 seat, then i think you could easily blame dean because the MONEY will be the only reason it could happen since the GOP doesnt hold no other strong ace in their pocket.

I know people likes dean, but one must wonder whether all this money that he's throwing in states like Mississippi, could had been better use to dump into a strong GOTV nationwide??

I like the 50 states strategy, but i just dont like it this year because this year is unlike any other years..I dont think someone could say the reason why we might take over the house is because of the 50 states strategy and that'll be overstretching it...the reason why we're take back the house is because of the war in iraq, george bush, mark foley..If you take one of those stuff out, then there's no way we would have such a strong shot at both houses.

Therefore, this is the reason why i just hate the fact that dean is spending money where we dont need it..cant he halt his stupid 50 states strategy just for this year? and start it back up after the election?/  If we fall short by one, it would be because of GOTV money and althought i dont like emmanuel, i can understand his frustration that this could be a chance that they will never have again.

2006 US Senate Race
Safe Democratic
1)California- Fienstien
2)Delaware- Carper
3)Florida- Nelson
4)Hawaii- Akaka
5)Massachusetts- Kennedy
6)Michigan- Stabenow
7)Minnesota- Klobuchar
8)Nebraska- Nelson
9)New Mexico- Bingaman
10)New York- Clinton
11)North Dakota- Conrad
12)Washington- Cantwell
13)West Virginia- Byrd
14)Wisconsin- Kohl

Safe Republican
1)Indiana-Lugar
2)Maine-Snowe
3)Mississippi-Lott
4)Nevada-Ensign
5)Texas-Hutchison
6)Utah-Hatch
7)Wyoming-Thomas

Safe Independent
1)Connecticut-Lieberman
2)Vermont-Sanders

Leans Democratic
1)Maryland-Cardin
2)Montana-Tester
3)Ohio-Brown
4)Pennsylvania-Casey
5)Rhode Island-Whitehouse

Leans Republican
1)Arizona-Kyl
2)Virginia-Allen

Tossup/leans Democratic
1)Missouri-McCaskill
2)New Jersey-Menendez
3)Tennesee- Ford

The Senate make up is 49D 49R and 2 Independent

Sanders(VT)will caucus with Democrats. 50D 49R and Lieberman(CT)is a question mark.

We have a much better chance of helping James Webb unseat George "Macaca" Allen. then Lamont unseating Lieberman.

Im starting to think that all those democrats coming here begging the netroot to re direct their money to webb instead of ned, are all democratic aides that wants lieberman backs in the senate and wants ned to loose...dont take those rhinos seriosuly..

I do not understand why you are classifying Lieberman as an independent.  If he calls himself a Democrat and votes for Reid as majority leader, then I believe the Senate rules would classify him as a Democrat.  The official count would be 50 D, 49 R & 1 I.  

I understand that some of you guys hate Lieberman, but you do not have the power to throw him out of the Democratic Party.

Francis Vecellio
Kinderhook, NY

We don't have to throw him out - he withdrew from the Democratic party to run as a party of one.

Based on recent elections, when we get two weeks away, a margin of 8% or more has usually been safe. At 7%, only very, very few will reverse.

But that means only two pickups look solid at this point, so we cannot back off for a second.

As Hesiod noted in the House post, momo is critical now. In the final two weeks, undecideds generally start moving to the perceived winner.

The polls clearly show that Iraq is the gorilla issue. We can expect Rove/Bush to make noises about new directions there, since it's now certain that their meaningless 'stay the course' is inspiring electoral defection. Every Dem running better have solid answers so voters can understand that they'll be pushing hard for better results fast, or forcing Bush to bring our troops out, the better to go after Bin Laden.

Gingrich was forced out for failing to deliver in midterms, but it provides nothing if Hastert stays to Election Day, because he'll be forced out of the top spot by voters then. Stepping down in advance might limit the damage on Election Day, so you can bet on Hastert stepping down no later than 10/20.

I've kept a running list on our American Street website of mostly competive Dems for House, Senate and Governor. But being pro-human/equal rights, I've dropped all those who limit women's rights, who are inflexible in denying existing immigrants paths to citizenship, who supported Bush's right to torture, or who back Bush still in Iraq. I'm no liberal purist but I still believe in voting for those with principles and the courage to avoid compromising them.

I recall how Cuomo repeatedly got elected despite remaining anti-capital punishment, when 60% of NYers were pro. Thus, I've dubbed it my Cuomo Courage List, and Chris' numbers today show most of them remain in good shape.

Keep up the good works, mates, and let's finish this even stronger than these numbers!

Francis, I think the fear is that if we control the Senate 51-49 counting Sanders, that Joe will sell out and defect, thus handing all power to Cheney.

So supporting Lamont still makes good sense because Joe's still a risk unless we win 52.

The really good shots for the Dems are MT, PA, OH, and PA.  They need another 2, and if national trends continue, they could find another 2 to tip that way.  Senate races can't be gerryamandered, so they are relatively more competitive than House races.  Remember in 04, the Rep won 5 seats vacated by Dem incumbents.

If the scenario of 49-49-2 holds out, the Dems will have a majority as Sanders and Leiberman will definitely go with the Dems.

Perhaps the most interesting race is MO, as this state is considered the most representive of the country of the whole.  McCaskill was on Meet the Press and looked very good debating Talent, who reminded somehow like the misguided-David Brooks.

I pray for NJ, as the more I know about Menendez, the more I feel he is a solid progressive.

I saw Tester debating Burns on C Span tonight, and he is a GREAT candidate.  He has the right persona, the right delivery, and the right platform.

Minnesota: Klobuchar (D) 51%--40% Kennedy (R)

But Mark Kennedy is such a great candidate...  for me to poop on!

a new poll posted on pubdef shows talent 10 points behind.