That, to me, is the key figure from all of these polls. I was assuming that there was no way a major-party candidate could ever poll below 15 percent, but obviously, we were all wrong.

I am skeptical that Schlesinger's ballot position alone can bring his vote up to the 15 percent range.

Lamont better find a way to turn this thing around, because if Lieberman wins, he will be far worse than the Lieberman who inspired Lamont's challenge. He will be vengeful toward progressives and he will be campaigning to be McCain's running mate in 2008. That means not just undermining the Democrats on national tv, which he's been doing for years, but also voting like Zell Miller instead of like a checklist liberal.

Look, I continue to support Lamont, and I hope he will win, but this is starting to get on my nerves. Everytime you guys post on Lamont, there is some reason why he is going to start leading in the polls, and everytime it fails. The new ads don't seem to be having any affect, and now this crap comes out. I hope Schlesinger will get more Republican votes, but I am becoming disconcerted with all this "Silver Lining" stuff that never pans out.

At the same time, I don't believe we should give up. If you really believe in this and are able to, go to Conneticut and help Ned. If you can't physically go, use Moveon.org to call for him. Don't suddenly give up and start calling for resources to be transfered to other Senate Candidates, but work harder. Just a question, where were we 3 and 1/2 weeks before the primary in the polls? Can anyone find some?

Who gives a rat's ass what the NY Times says about the Lamont-Lieberman race?   That newspaper is wrong more often than not, and is not in the same ideological camp with progressives.  It's a neocon rag, and we don't hear A.O. Sulzberger's name often enough.  The rot starts with him.

Wow, if this is true,then Lamont has a million eggs on his face right now.

Also, one thing you would have to ask yourself is: did the democratic party purposely ask lamont to go dark after his primary victory because they knew lieberman was on the ropes and the only chance lieberman would have is to tell lamont to go easy which would allow lieberman to get up on his feet and rebuilt his campaign.

Whatever you want to believe, im very pissed, not only at the establishment, but at lamont...We all know that lamont had lieberman dead after he won the primary and all that had to be done is go on TV and announce to the people that you are the winner and lieberman refuses to accept it and instead, lamont went dark...

What i dont understand is, if you're lamont and the establishment asks you to stop attacking lieberman by promising you they will get him to drop out, why in the world would you take their word for it unless you have basic proof that lieberman would indeed drop out..this is umbelievable and lamont deserve to loose for believing those fucking snakes and i hate harry reid, i hate harry to death, and he's the one who umbolden liebrman by promising him seniorship.

How can you promise liebrman seniority and tell lamont to go drak at the same time?  this is umbelievable and we need to put harry reid and those rhinos on the hot seat..im sick and tired of them and im pissed at lamont for being such an idiot..those guys didnt eject money into your campaign and they all were rooting for lieberman to win so why in the world would you take their words???  jesus christ.

I think a significant part of Lamont's problem now is that it almost seems like he's trying to "buy" his Senate seat.  He just put another $2M into his race, making his total contributions so far what, almost $9M?

That said, the race is bound to tighten up.  A smart move would be to make advertisements supporting the Republican ticket.  "Republicans DO have a choice in Novmeber.  Vote the Republican Party ticket."

Two things

1.  Forget what the Senators think.  They aren't voting in the Conn general election.

(Besides, with the real possibility of a 49-49-2 Senate, do you REALLY want them to piss in Joe's face?  REALLY?)

2.  There is a large block of voters who admire anyone who is "his own man," and not some wimpy equivocator.

Lamont went wimpy and too cute by half.  So he's not so popular.

Go strong, like Webb, and don't dance.  Then there's a chance.

It's one thing for Republicans to say they support JoeMo when polled over the phone. But will they actually turn out to vote for him when their own party is in such a crisis of depression? That could be missing ingredient in all of these polls.

There certainly were some moments of euphoria after Lamont won the primary and some people made remarks that were more a product of that good feeling rather than sober analysis.  But the consensus has always been that, with a weak Republican candidate, one who is shunned and openly derided by the Republican Establishment, Lieberman had a pretty good chance of holding onto his seat.

I don't think that Lamont's campaign is going badly, it's just not going as well as we would like.  The lack of vocal and emphatic support from the Democratic Establishment, Bill Clinton's ambiguity is a good example, is certainly a factor for a fair portion of the Democratic electorate in CT.  Lamont is still the new guy and the new guy always has to make his case against a presumption that the incumbent is acceptable.  It usually takes a pretty big scandal to bring down an incumbent.

I think the debates will be the whole thing and that it was a mistake to schedule three.  There just isn't that much to talk about.  Either you are satisfied with Holy Joe or you want some one new.  Either you think Holy Joe has been an enabler of the Worst President Ever or you think it doesn't matter.  It's more of a gut thing than a head thing.  Three debates is three chances for Lamont to do something that the corporate press/media will turn into his very won Dean Scream.

I am no fan of the NYT. BUt that article is right on the mark. Using common sense, and just noticing what was going on, I am not surprised by the attitude of many democratic leaders towards the CT race. I have posted many comments warning that this scenario could very well happen and not to put much weight into the nominal switch of support that happened after the primary. People can tell what enthusiastic support is versus obligatory support. This is why I support the new wave of dem leaders but have a lot of contempt for the old guard.

1) Hold democratic leaders publicly accountable. Have surrogates tail leaders like Clinton and other leaders who are giving him lukewarm support and ask them why they are tolerating Lieberman who has taken plenty of potshots against fellow dems. Make them feel the wrath. Lamont does not have the personal leverage to hold leaders accountable. But he has made some friends. Use those friends to turn up the heat on the establishment to do more. Lieberman pretty much hustled Hilary Clinton into gettting Bill to campaign for him. Lamont should be getting people to do the same. I expected Wes and Edwards. I was surprised by Mark Warner's enthusiastic endorsement.

2. What is the trickle down factor in favor of Lamont from the other local Dems running? My impression from reading the blogs was that a lot of the CT dems running were in favor of Lamont. Am I wrong on this? Has there been efforts to create some brand synergy with the local dems running creating more of an impression among local voters that Lamont is indeed the only dem that counts?
   
3. Lamont need to make a point in the debates that if Lieberman is going to act so contemptuous and arrogant even after he lost the primaries, just imagine how much contempt he will have for a lot of the party when he wins.
   
4. Diminish the "respectability" factor Lieberman cultivates. Expose his hypocrisy to the mainstream. Find the mainstream ad equivalent of what we get to read in firedoglake and Sirota's blog. A lot of people are unaware of the plenty of dirty stuff Lieberman indulges in like praising Bush at a crucial time during the Kerry campaign in FL. Show how unpleasant this guy is.
   
5. Use Rovian tactics against Lieberman. Show that he is a flip flopper.

THE DEBATE IS THE KEY.

Lanny J. Davis, a close friend of Mr. Lieberman's who is advising the campaign.

Can Lanny Davis just fuck off already? If Reid, Schumer and Senate Dems had any spine, they'd make it very clear that working with Lieberman on anything more than a 'friendly chat' level was off any party payroll from here till eternity.

Man, who says the "establishment" promised to knock Lieberman off?  I don't remember that.  What I do remember is a lot of speculation about that happening, a lot of people saying that Chris Dodd was going to step in and give Lieberman the bad news.  However, I don't recall Dodd himself (or anyone else) ever promising that.

Look, Lamont let Lieberman run the papers for two weeks after the primary when he should have been out in front setting the terms of the debate.  He made the same mistake John Kerry did in August 2004.  And, as we all know, the last thing any Dem can do is sit back and take attack after attack without responding.  The game just can't be played that way anymore.  

I've donated to Lamont several times and was truly excited when he won the primary.  But it's getting hard to stay a true believer.  His only real hope is the debates.  He needs to knock a couple homers or he's in trouble, even with his much espoused ground game.  After all, I'm willing to bet, come election day, Lieberman will have a surprisingly good ground game too.  

After the primary, DC Democrats dissuaded Lamont from attacking Lieberman, essentially promising him that they would talk Joe out of running.

Has this been reported in the media?

I find this discussion really disturbing. It seems like you guys are all determined to set your selves up to say "I told you so" if Lamont loses. Geesh If Lamont wins will you bring up this discussion? talking about pissing matches.

We're all in the test tube, and it's sink or swim time. The time for analysis comes later.

NOBODY, not here, not in the DC smoke-filled rooms, knows what's going to happen.

The DC Dems have taken a hike, but so has the online community. People think they smell loser, and they run screaming from the stink.

But you can't just help candidates who don't need help. The Lamont Campaign is less of a long shot than the Ciro Rodriguez race. And didn't somebody say Lamont just tossed in another $2 million? Like that's a bad thing?

If, like a DC Dem, all you care about is control of the Senate, then screw Lamont. Odds are, Lieb will stay put, and it makes more sense to look for the sixth seat elsewhere. That's if you're strictly a percentage player. The DC Dems have a lock on CT, so they think, and it's no big surprise you don't see them around CT much. If Holy Joe wins, we have to look at him on TV; they have to sit next to the guy. From a practical perspective, Lieberman's just one more conservative Dem who pads our numbers. To say the truth, he'd be a better vote than either Ford or Webb.

But if you're a progressive--and not just a player--you've got to fight for Ned.  You don't walk away from a friend. I agree with Holy Joe about one thing: those who want to take a powder now should have thought about it more before the primary.

Control of the Senate is a coin flip, which is the best news of 2006, but it's still a coin flip. I don't think the coin is likely to land on edge, letting Holy Joe and Dick Cheney decide who's majority leader.

It could happen, though, and then all bets are off. You can't trust Lieberman (or goddamn near anyone) not to revisit his options under those circumstance. Committee chairman? Secretary of Defense? Victory party aboard the U.S.S. Hannah Lieberman?  Once you're in the Republican majority, you don't really give much of a rat's ass what Harry Reid or some other lowlife ranking member says.

If the Dems don't win a majority, having Lamont in the Senate will be a helluva consolation prize and a stepping stone to tomorrow. If the Dems do win a majority, having Lamont in the Senate will be even better.

I don't know who will win in CT, or who will control the senate. Neither does anyone else. I do know this: You can't win if you don't try.

Beat Holy Joe, my friends. Beat him bad.

Do you think this would be a good strategy Matt?

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2006/10/11 /11400/389

The diary explains that Lamont should just focus on negative ads aaginst Schlesinger. Seems to be a very good strategy.

Even if Lamont didnt win,  Lieberman was officially fired from the Democratic Party.

Dem Party can't be trusted

We have to remind ourselves of that fact as we go forward no matter what happens.

A Lamont win will be seen as a progressive win.  This is very threatening to the DC dems.  They want to be able to say we did it despite Lamont, Dean, Hackett, Edwards, Mfume, Cegalis, etc.

This is a long term fight.  If we win the House, especially if we win the House and Senate, the DC dem insiders are going to become very powerful overnight.  

Call it the "Hedgerow" effect. Back in WWII, the allies spent years preparing to storm Normandy beaches, but they didn't plan at all for the hedgerows that lay beyond. So they got ashore, and then got stuck fighting in those murderous confines for months. They had to to figure out new tactics on the spot.

No one on my DTC here in Connecticut predicted this race would shape up this way. Very difficult to guess that (1) Republicans would betray their own candidate, and (2) that the Democratic leadership would remain so friendly with Lieberman despite his defection, promising him that they would preserve his seniority and placement on the committees.

Clearly, the Democratic leadership is extremely weak, statewide and nationally. It wasn't strong enough to withstand Lamont's primary challenge (and they tried), and it wasn't strong enough to  finish off Joe after the primary (and it appears they didn't try at all). Now a lot of Democrats are too spineless to stick by their own party's candidate. And the signal we send to Connecticut, a "blue" state that should be bluer, is that Democrats don't have to vote for Democrats (and breaking the rules, ignoring the voters, is acceptable).

DeStefano, the Democratic gubernatorial candidate, is languishing in the polls because all the oxygen (and some of the money) has been sucked out of his race. When state politicians give limp or no support to Lamont, they also signal to Democrats that it's okay to vote for the Republican Rell. Lieberman's ads play nicely with the Republican ads running for the Congressional candidates. What a headwind there would have been if Joe had dropped out, a united front that could have swept the table.

But let's stop talking about this race like it's over already. This is a fluid election. Lamont has been behind nearly the whole race. He was behind the day before the primary - his ground game pulled him over the finish line.

It's far too early to give up the fight. I'm phonebanking, canvassing, and most of the contacts I make are undecided, leaning or strongly Ned. My sample may be biased (I think Lieberman supporters are simply shutting up at this point, refusing to talk), but when you get right to the people and talk to them, there aren't a lot of Lieberman supporters.

Please don't turn this into a "where have they gone wrong" narrative that will dog Lamont for the rest of the race. Just talking about this saps energy from the campaign. Do something positive - turn the criticism into action that will help Democrats somewhere, anywhere. Helping here in Connecticut would be nice.

This race is so skewed by Lieberman's Republican support and a gushing press that it has virtually no national meaning at all.

It is a one-off, like Menendez in Jersey.

It seems to this amateur observer that Joe's "secret weapon" is what were once called "Reagan Democrats."  A lot of working class ethnics seem to feel comfortable with Joe.  

Ned's task down to the wire is to show those folks how Joe's collaboration with Bushism has been destructive of their economic well-being (and their children's).

On the other hand, having the loser Schlesinger at the top of the Republican ticket is going to further suppress Republican turnout that was already going to suffer from the national disillusionment.

Is blue CT going to return to the Senate one of the most energetic, unapologetic supporters of a war that has killed 650,000 innocent people for no good reason at all?