Governor Forecast 2006: Rhode Island Still in Play, Oregon Becomes More Competitive



Just four weeks from election day, Democrats are still on track to make big gains on the governor front, with enough seats now realistically in play that if the party holds its own competitive seats like Maine and Oregon it could end up with as many as 30 governorships -- up from 22 currently.

Among Democratic pick-up opportunities, I have moved Alabama and Georia into the "safe Republican" column and may soon do the same to South Carolina, unless additional polling confirms SurveyUSA's finding that Democrat Tommy Moore is within 4 points of GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. The overall outlook for Democrats is essentially the same as it was last week, though perhaps slightly better as questions about whether or not Rhode Island is still competitive have been answered as Charlie Fogarty remains tied in the polls.

Among Republican pick-up opportunities, I'm moving Oregon up the ladder two slots based on polling I'm not entirely comfortable with (the likely voter model shows significantly higher Republican turnout relative to the entire electorate than has been the case in 60 or 70 years). Though I still see Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski pulling out a victory, Oregon is now the Republicans' third best pick-up opportunity (partially because Jennifer Granholm appears to be pulling away in Michigan).

For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.



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Typos - pls fix (none / 0)

pls. fix the error "democrat pick up opportunities" are not the "Safe republican" s


.. and when I win the lottery, gonna donate half my money to the city so they have to name a school or a park after me - camper van beethoven
by heyAnita on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 04:48:03 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006: Rhode Island Still in (none / 0)

I'm not getting a good feeling about the Kulongoski-Saxton race. Here in Portland, I'm seeing next to no visible Kulongoski support (signs, bumperstickers, etc.) I see lots of Saxton crap when I drive into Beaverton.

Saxton has more money than Kulongoski.

Governor K. has been a tepid disappointment. I truly don't want Saxton to break the long losing streak of Republican governor wannabes in Oregon, though.


by Oregonian on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 04:55:20 PM EST

Re: CT looking better. (none / 0)

While DeStefano (the Democratic) still has a huge up hill battle, I think he's in much better shape after a successful debate last night. It's still a safe Republican, but it's possible it might change.
by Bobby McGee on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 05:28:33 PM EST

Don't write off Georgia yet. (none / 0)

Don't sell Georgia too short.  Taylor won a hard fought primary and still has some depressed numbers thanks to the attacks of his Democratic opponent.  But Perdue has a lot of ethical troubles.  Here are two of Taylor's most recent ads.  To win in Georgia, we just need to hold Perdue below 50%, which will force a runoff.

Ad about Perdue's land deal with billionaire Georgia developer
http://youtube.com/watch?v=6PfW-5KbbJM

Ad about special tax bill Perdue passed that saved him $100,000 in taxes on land deal.
http://youtube.com/watch?v=GlsGNIynu20


by chrisishardcore on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 05:32:36 PM EST

Re: Governor Forecast 2006 (none / 0)

You're still being really, really cautious.  If you think Saxton has a chance in Oregon, well, you're setting yourself up for plenty of happy surprises.  

Seems to me Iowa is the only Dem-held Governorship still on the table.  I see us holding that and all the others, and picking up NY, MA, MD, OH, AR, CO, MN and either RI, NV or FL, for a total of eight.


by admiralnaismith on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 05:45:36 PM EST

Nevada gov debate replayed tonight at 10 PM (none / 0)

That's eastern time, about an hour from now on CSPAN. I don't think many people nationwide are familiar with these candidates so this can be the first look. I believe it will be shown later tonight also.

The debate was last night at Bally's in Las Vegas. It was the most lopsided crowd I've ever seen for a debate, chants of "Dina, Dina..." at beginning and end. I hope CSPAN includes the bizarre opening segment, in which a third party candidate dressed in red, white and blue stormed the stage and demanded to be included in the debate. I guess that's apropos for Las Vegas, like the parachutist dropping in to the Holyfield/Bowe fight in the early '90s.

Titus dominated the debate but unfortunately the questions were provided to the candidates beforehand which enabled bumbling Gibbons to prepare stock answers and come across less baffled than typical. But he did provide some classic Gibbons moments, like when he said, "I know water..." Also, he repeatedly criticized California, for no appparent reason.

Titus is much more liberal than this state generally prefers in a statewide race, but shame on the Democratic governors committee for not fully funding this race. We're probably looking at a 4-6 point loss and plenty of what-ifs. Titus has been overwhelmed in commercial buys for the past month.


by Gary Kilbride on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 09:12:19 PM EST

DeVos clearly desperate (none / 0)

I watched the second debate tonight. DeVos apparently took plenty of grief for his meak performance in the previous debate. His entire opening statement tonight was devoted to saying he was furious at Granholm's campaign and saying she lied in the opening debate.

DeVos was considerably more aggressive tonight but that can't overcome how stiff and awkward he is. I was impressed that Granholm maintained her composure and smile and allowed the debate to play its course instead of feeling immediately compelled to attack DeVos' opening statement.

That debate was held simultaneous to the Tigers playoff game at Oakland so no doubt the audience was very low. Granholm was wise to mention the Tigers in her opening and closing statements while DeVos did not.


by Gary Kilbride on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 09:34:34 PM EST

SD - Gov: Jack Billion has the momentum (none / 0)

Jack Billion just got a huge endorsement from the Argus Leader (the biggest paper in SD) and is getting great press across the state.  Governor Rounds is widely criticized for being a poor leader who has let the radical right wing of the party over take Pierre.

Here are some choice bits from the endorsement along with the link.

On Mike Rounds:

"Gov. Mike Rounds' engaging smile and personal wealth hide arrogance and secrecy and a lack of understanding, or a lack of willingness to accept, that South Dakotans have an inherent right to open government.  There's simply a basic disregard for public accountability.  Most troubling during the past four years, though, is the lack of leadership."

On Jack Billion:

"Billion gets it.  A physician and veteran.  Former state legislator, Dakota Wesleyan University board member.  Deep Roots.  Outspoken.  Open.  Willing to try new things.  Willing to admit he doesn't have all the answers.  Willing to admit when he's wrong.  Yes, Rounds is incredibly popular in South Dakota.  His popularity, though, is based on his smile - not on his leadership or successes.  It is time to change.  Jack Billion should be our next governor."

http://www.argusleader.com/apps/pbcs.dll /article?AID=/20061008/VOICES01/61008031 6/1161

Contribute to Jack here:

http://actblue.com/page/billionforgovern or


by SoDak Dem on Tue Oct 10, 2006 at 10:50:42 PM EST


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