Just four weeks from election day, Democrats are still on track to make big gains on the governor front, with enough seats now realistically in play that if the party holds its own competitive seats like Maine and Oregon it could end up with as many as 30 governorships -- up from 22 currently.
Among Democratic pick-up opportunities, I have moved Alabama and Georia into the "safe Republican" column and may soon do the same to South Carolina, unless additional polling confirms SurveyUSA's finding that Democrat Tommy Moore is within 4 points of GOP Gov. Mark Sanford. The overall outlook for Democrats is essentially the same as it was last week, though perhaps slightly better as questions about whether or not Rhode Island is still competitive have been answered as Charlie Fogarty remains tied in the polls.
Among Republican pick-up opportunities, I'm moving Oregon up the ladder two slots based on polling I'm not entirely comfortable with (the likely voter model shows significantly higher Republican turnout relative to the entire electorate than has been the case in 60 or 70 years). Though I still see Democratic Governor Ted Kulongoski pulling out a victory, Oregon is now the Republicans' third best pick-up opportunity (partially because Jennifer Granholm appears to be pulling away in Michigan).
For updated polling and analysis of all of this year's most important gubernatorial races, head on over to the MyDD Governor Forecast 2006 sponsored by Bill Richardson.
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