Sometimes it's necessary to beat a dead horse. This is one of those times. Lately, I've been reading over and over again that the public polling is in favor of Sam Alito's confirmation. As Armando noted earlier, this morning's New York Times article on the hearings is the latest example.

Now, that is one seriously shaky statement. And yet, in the traditional media, it's somehow become conventional wisdom. It seems to be based on the latest Washington Post polling of December 15-18 that indicated 54% in favor of confirmation and 28% opposed, with 19% having no opinion. Fair enough. That's why I call it a shaky statement and not an outright falsity.

But as I mentioned earlier this week, the Post poll is not the only recent source of numbers on Alito. The Wall Street Journal poll had 34% in favor, 34% unsure, and 31% opposed. Again, I would hardly characterize those results as working in Alito's favor, when just as many are on the fence as are in favor and nearly as many are flat-out opposed.

Reviewing other recent polls at Polling Report confirms that this supposed groundswell of public support for Sam Alito just doesn't exist. I'm not saying the polling won't necessarily shift in Alito's favor, but to say that it already has is inaccurate. For example, in early-mid December, both Fox and NBC found that Alito isn't yet on most people's radar. Fox's polling indicated that 38% had never heard of Alito. And NBC found 48% saying that they didn't know enough about Alito to support or oppose his confirmation.

It seems to me that most people, to their credit, seem to be withholding their judgement of Alito until the hearings. The Republicans are already playing the expectations management game, saying that Alito won't perform as well in the hearings as John Roberts. Judiciary Committee Chairman Arlen Specter characterized the situation well, saying that Alito has "more targets" in his background than Roberts did.

The polling on Alito's confirmation is likely to move with the start of the hearings. And though I can't claim to know which way, I'm guessing downward as the connections between Alito's opinions and contentious issues like privacy and governmental power will become more clear to the casual observer.