Turning Theory Into Practice: The MyDD Polling Project

(This post will stay bumped to the top for a few days, so look below for new posts.)

Ever since the 2003 primary season, the notion of political blogs conducting or commissioning their own telephone polls has flickered to the surface every now and then. A few months ago, Impeach PAC became the first blog to actually go through with it, raising enough money to commission Zogby to run a poll on impeachment.

That was really cool and impressive stuff by Impeach PAC, but now here at MyDD we are going to take things at least one step further. As our first move in what we hope will become a semi-annual series of netroots commissioned polls, MyDD is going to commission a comprehensive nationwide poll that will ask twenty questions that most polling firms, especially those attached to commercial news organizations, seem unable to ask themselves. This poll will include:
  • Several well worded questions on impeachment, all drawn from questions that were asked about the impeachment of President Clinton in 1998-1999.

  • Several properly phrased questions about Iraq and withdrawal that go beyond the false choices many polling outfits seem to ask at the behest of the Bush administration.

  • Several well-worded questions on Bush's unwarranted domestic spying.
In the extended entry, I have included a draft of some of the questions I wish to ask. The purpose of this post is to ask you to critique these drafts, and to offer your own questions for possible inclusion in our first poll. While I need particular help formulating the questions on domestic spying, you do not have to limit yourselves to the topics I listed above. I am still shopping around for the polling firm with which I feel it is best to work.

Fire away. We are turning theory into practice here. Let's make netroots history. We will start fundraisng for this poll shortly, as we aim to release the results at the tail end of the Alito hearings.

Here are some of the draft questions:

Iraq Questions (Four questions)

  • 1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"

  • 2. (If "DID NOT MAKE A MISTAKE"): Why do you think it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq? (can answer "yes" to multiple reasons). Because Saddam Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction; because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda; Because it will bring democracy to Iraq; Because it will bring democracy to the Middle East; Other reason or reasons

  • 3. (All): Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?

  • 4a. (If "BRING TROOPS HOME"): "Should the U.S. remove all troops from Iraq immediately, or should the withdrawal of troops be gradual over the next year or two?"
  • 4b. (If "KEEP TROOPS IN IRAQ"): "Should the US set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops, or not?
Although I have not blogged about it in a long time, I have been waiting for a polling outfit to ask a question like #2 for a long time. People are repeatedly asked if they support the war, but they are never asked why they support the war. Right now, I am only asking this question to people who support the war, but it might be useful to ask a variation of it to everyone in the poll.

As far as the withdrawal questioning goes, I think the best way to go is to ask the two questions Pew asked in their latest survey on troop withdrawal. I am asking these two questions because it shows how a simple follow-up question can turn a nearly useless question that accepts Bush administration spin on troop withdrawal into a responsible, accurate survey of public opinion on troop withdrawal without abandoning their current question on Iraq and thus losing their precious trendlines. Pew has thus shown other polling outfits the way out of distortion and false choices on troop withdrawal questions, and I would like to help them continue their work in our poll.

Investigation and Impeachment Questions (Five questions)

  • 1. (All): Next, we would like to ask you some questions on possible investigations of President Bush. First, do you think Congress should conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with domestic spying?

  • 2. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in domestic spying would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

  • 3. (All): Do you think Congress should conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

  • 4. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

  • 5. (All) "Do you think the Judiciary Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives should begin holding hearings to determine whether or not to impeach President Bush, or don't you think it's necessary?"
All of these questions are direct variations on questions that were asked about President Clinton in 1998-1999. I choose these questions because they were all asked in the summer of 1998, before any actual impeachment proceedings were brought against President Clinton. Thus, these are questions that were asked when impeaching President Clinton was still in the hypothetical stage, just as we are currently in the hypothetical stage of impeaching President Bush. Even though many news organizations keep moving the goalposts on when they will actually poll on impeachment and the entire concept of "justification" seems to have been thrown out the window, these questions are thus more "justifiable" than other quesitons.

Other questions
Obviously, we are going ot need some domestic spying questions in this poll, so help me out. Also, I am very strongly tempted to ask favorable / unfavorable questions on prominent Democrats and Democrats who are considering running for President. I leave these and other questions up to debate.


Display:


my 2 cents... (2.00 / 0)

I think that this question:

"In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"

Should be reworded to be:

"Do you think the United States should have invaded Iraq?"

I think the term "developments" could be miscontstrued to mean the fact that the war is not going well, i.e. casualties.  Instead of the fact that no WMD's were found.

I'd also like to know how many people think that what is going on in Iraq is a civil war that we are caught in and if the responders to the poll think our presence there is making things worse (as John Murtha says) or helping.

by dayspring on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 10:59:06 AM EST

This is Great (3.00 / 1)

Chris:

I think this is great stuff.  It will really help the blogosphere gain greater legitimacy (not that it needed it in any of the minds here) from sources outside the blogosphere, not suggesting that the periphery needs to justification from the center.  I will work on some possible polling questions for spying and post them in this section later.

Mark
by Mark J. Bowers on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:00:17 AM EST

questio revisions (2.00 / 0)

a few thoughts on these polls. i should preface this by saying that i have developed curriculum on qualitative research methods and done extensive coursework in statistical inference. I have edited several questions to make them less biasing. Several of them would be unlikely to produce accurate responses.

1) this is a push question if it only asks whether
 "the United States made a mistake". Asking it that way, i think, biases responednts towards a "yes" answer.
Better would be:
1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States was correct or mistaken in sending troops to Iraq?"

    * 2. (If "DID NOT MAKE A MISTAKE"): Why do you think it was a correct decesion to send troops to Iraq? (can answer "yes" to multiple reasons). Because Saddam Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction; because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda; Because it will bring democracy to Iraq; Because it will bring democracy to the Middle East; Other reason or reasons

    * 3. (All): Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq, or do you think the U.S. should begin to bring its troops home?
[as soon as possible, is again, biasing. one could also not want immediate withdrawl but withdrawl soon, and there wouldn't be a suitable choice. thus, the way the question was phrased, it is a false dichotomy].
    * 4a. (If "BRING TROOPS HOME"): "Should the U.S. remove all troops from Iraq immediately, or should the withdrawal of troops be gradual over the next year or two?"
[great question!]

    * 4b. (If "KEEP TROOPS IN IRAQ"): "Should the US set a timetable for the withdrawal of troops, or not?
[4b is a push poll-type question, strongly biasing the responder towards a "yes" response]

-----
Investigation and Impeachment Questions (Five questions)

    * 1. (All): Next, we would like to ask you some questions on possible investigations of President Bush. First, do you think Congress should conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with domestic spying?
[good question]

    * 2. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in domestic spying would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."
[again, good question]

    * 3. (All): Do you think Congress should conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?
[it may be preferable to add a qualifier here like  "involvewment with allegedly faulty..."

    * 4. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

    * 5. (All) "Do you think the Judiciary Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives should begin holding hearings to determine whether or not to impeach President Bush, or don't you think it's necessary?"
[nice question]

I hope this was helpful!

by MrT on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:02:25 AM EST

Re: questio revisions (2.00 / 0)

Hmmm... the allegedly isn't necessary.  It is undisputed now that the intel was bad and the claims faulty.
by teknofyl on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:08:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WMD question revisions (2.00 / 0)

Uh, no, it's not undisputed. There are still plenty of people (and I count myself one of them) that believe there is a very good chance the WMDs were there prior to the war, but were moved elsewhere (most likely Lebanon) in the run-up to invasion. I know that nothing much has been found in Iraq, but that doesn't mean they weren't there at the time the decision for war was made.

So, putting "allegedly" or something similar, is necessary to avoid it being a push question.

In fact, I would reword the entire question or add a new, previous question. It seems to me that a lot of Dems claim that Bush had additional intelligence that he did not share with Congress. Perhaps a question should first be asked about which side of that argument the person being polled believes. And then, if they think he withheld intel, then go on to ask if there should be an investigation.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:01:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WMD question revisions (none / 0)

Hmm... Bush himself has basically admitted in his Deember speeches that the intel was bad, even taking responsibility (at least verbally; it seems that for him the foul taste in his mouth of those words pays for the whole invasion-was-stupid-afterall thing entirely, and everyone should just shut up and move on) for said bad intel.

So... everyone who has anything to say about the situation.  Of course, you and '60% O'Reilly' and whoever else ignores all the facts available has 'an opinion.'  It's just a dumb one.  Based on nothing.  Whatsoever.  Like intelligent design.  So... no, the 'allegedly' doesn;t need to be there to placate a few dumbasses.

by teknofyl on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 02:39:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WMD question revisions (none / 0)

Well no, it's not based on nothing - if it were, then that would make me the dumbass you claim me to be. It's based on plenty of circumstantial evidence from sources I respect and trust. I have an open mind on the topic - the scenario I outlined is only one of the possibilities I think may have occurred. I don't think that makes me a dumbass, but hey, if it makes you feel better to lame-rate me and hurl insults, feel free.
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 01:04:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WMD question revisions (none / 0)

When did I lame-rate you?

I guess I just don't understand... what sources?  What eveidence?

I mean... how do you figure that since they aren't in Iraq, that means they must be somehwere else?  Really... I don't get it.

Even Bush admits that the info was bad... he just thinks that since 'everyone got it wrong' then no one did.  Yet here you are, acting like... no... as long as SOMEONE thinks that they were there and now they're somewhere else, we should act like thats a viable possibility.  Just like ID... well SOMEONE thinks that the human eye couldn;t come about from eveolution, so... we'd better throw that into textbooks.

Really?????  You REALLY think that?  That there were WMDs but they were secretly hidden and now EVERYONE official is fooled?  If that's the case, you must be ready to impeach Bush for forcing that situation, huh?  Because before we knew where they were and now we don't... maybe Al Quaeda has them now... we don't know, right?  Better impeach Bush just on principle alone, right?

by teknofyl on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 06:19:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: WMD question revisions (none / 0)

Well, I was lame-rated, and since you were the one that called me a "dumbass", I made the natural conclusion that it was you. If it wasn't, then I am sorry.

Anyway, while I would love to debate this issue further, this is not the topic in which to do it. You have your opinion, I have mine (even it is a "dumb" one). If you can't respect that, fine; I will lose no sleep over it.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Tue Jan 10, 2006 at 11:26:00 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I've Got To Run, But (3.00 / 0)

before I do, I just have to say, re this:
1) this is a push question if it only asks whether  "the United States made a mistake". Asking it that way, i think, biases responednts towards a "yes" answer.
Better would be:
1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States was correct or mistaken in sending troops to Iraq?"
"do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"

is no more of a push poll than

"do you think the United States was correct or mistaken in sending troops to Iraq?"

it's just a matter of which alternative you present first.  Since there's an ingrained bias to always support national leaders in matters of war, the second alternative tends to reinforce that bias, so it's actually more likely to produce bias.  However, even that doesn't qualify as a push poll.  

A push poll is, "Since Bush lied about everything, and over 2,000 soldiers have died, and bin Laden is still at large, and Iran may end up running Iraq when this is all over, do think it was really stupid to invage Iraq, just a little bit stupid, or an understandable mistake?"

If you want to tinker here, a better fix would be:

"do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or was it the right decision?"

More later, but for now it's off to work.

by Paul Rosenberg on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:05:55 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I've Got To Run, But (none / 0)

Nonsense.  Although it's not overt, it is leading.  You're not presenting a positive frame for people who support the decision.

"do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq [negative], or not [neutral]?"

versus

"do you think the United States was correct [positive] or mistaken [negative] in sending troops to Iraq?"

You can have them rotate whether correct or mistaken comes first, but you do have to present it that way.  If the poll questions seem colored it will undermine the validity of the results.

I was actually going to write a post similar to MrT's because I saw the bias too.  I'm glad he did since he has at least some qualifications and I don't.  If the coloring of the questions was obvious to me it's going to be obvious to everyone on the right who's going to want to tear it down and everyone in the traditional media (happy Kos?) who has to decide whether or not the results are newsworthy.

Think very hard about the wording of the questions or you'll throw the results down the drain before you even get started.

by Gg on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:10:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clarification (none / 0)

I think you've misread me in at least two ways.

First off, I was objecting to the misuse of the term "push poll," which properly refers to campaigning in the guise of polling. By misusing this term to refer to question bias, we actually legitimize push polling, and lose a much-needed term of delegitimation.

Second, not only was I not opposed to rephrasing the question, I offered my own suggestion of how to do so:

    "do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or was it the right decision?"
There is virtually no difference between this and your preferred alternative:
    "do you think the United States was correct [positive] or mistaken [negative] in sending troops to Iraq?"
Beyond the question of misreading my post, there's the question of whether the original question was "leading." Actually, I don't think we know.  You claim that it's biased because it doesn't present a clear, positive alternative.  But this could actually raise the response rate for the allegedly "neutral" alternative, since people who are truly undecided might choose it as well.  Thus, it might well produce the opposite bias of the one you suggest.

Two observations are in order here.  The first is that, while there are some questions that are clearly poorly designed, there are also a diverse range of questions with slight variations in possible bias that are all nonetheless legitimate to ask.  By now, public opinion experts are pretty well agreed that there is no one "perfect" question to ask on any issue to get people's "true" opinion.  Opinions just don't work like that.

So the question is not, in a case like this, "Is this question clearly biased?"  Rather, it's "Is this question unnecessarily biased?"  I think the answer to this can't be known, precisely because of the reasons I've given.  But that's not the end of the matter, because of observation #2:

Our purpose should be to break new ground. Part of doing this is to exhibit the best possible standard polling practices (not in the media-poll sense, but in terms of public opinion research scholarship), and to do so in a way that minimizes opportunities for distracting and irrelevant attacks.  This is the proper reason for objecting to the proposed wording.  I honestly don't know which way (if either) the bias effect would work in this question.  But the mere fact that it gives a foothold for attacks is good enough to look for better wording--which I have already proposed.

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 11:11:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Kudos! (none / 0)

I have to tell you a bit about my background here. In the late 90's I became a researcher in linguistics, with a specialization on Accent. I started doing speech recognition in the early zero's
and now at mid 00's I am under review for a grant award that will pole-ax the problem of accent Identification once and for all and we'll have the mathematics of accent worked forward 20 years and really be able to use accent ID. My first application will be to help people regain speech, it will be for dysarthria.

Alright. So I'm not really a political animal, I vote, and I'm kind of independent, I really like it when A country moves forward in the right direction, but all in all I'm not some paid political consultant or evangelist for any real cause other than to try to bring back the America I loved when I was a kid, so that my kids can grow up strong and true.

Now, having said this - a big component of my history was online communities, electric community research. I found time and again that as communities evolved (and by the way, this is what Joe Trippi still misses today in his work, despite all his good work on WAVE SYSTEMS at RAGING BULL) - is that democracy always arises from these online systems.

Guys like Chris push the envelope forward. Google "Electric Communities" or my alter-handle "Oracle Layza" sometime and you can read more. Its really fascinating.

Three cheers for MyDD ! Three cheers for Chris!
And Jerome, you're a mud sucking donkey.

I get to say that because he's not here.
:-)

by turnerbroadcasting on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:04:22 AM EST

Re: Kudos! (none / 0)

PS Count me in for the cash, when I have some you've go the moola. I want to see a business plan tho. Something clear. No lies, damned lies or statistics until we know this is not just the left version of Fox news.
by turnerbroadcasting on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:06:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

GREAT start! But don't forget the Triangle (none / 0)

(Cross-posted on my blog, Planting Liberally):

As Peter Daou pointed out in his "triangle" post last September, blogs will not be able to push a story into the traditional news media unless they have the support of Democratic officials and candidates.

Luckily, this poll dovetails with a lot of great yeoman's work being done by other parts of the blogosphere, on highlighting and supporting Iraq vets who are coming home to run for Congress.  See, for example, Air America Radio, the ActBlue Fighting Dems fundraising page, and kos's weekly Fighting Dems series.

Before the poll gets underway, it's important to get the support of these Democratic candidates, as well as key elected Democrats, like John Murtha, Nancy Pelosi, and Russ Feingold.  A commitment from even a handful of these to talk about the poll in the days following its release is as necessary to the poll's ultimate success as any fundraising or poll-drafting efforts.

Moreover, it wouldn't hurt to bring the progressive magazine circuit, including the Nation, Mother Jones, and The American Prospect, online in this effort.

by myddaholic on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:18:57 AM EST

Variations (none / 0)

Iraq:  I don't know how to word the question, but it seems like you're asking about two fairly defined "exit strategies".  Murtha's call for redeployment (staging out of theater), with a gradual, though specific timeline; and Bush's nebulous "when the Iraqis are ready".  To get to the answers I think you need to reverse the order, and put #s 3 & 4 first (current), followed by 1 & 2 (past).

Bush:  

#1 might be more direct:  do you believe the President has the authority to order wiretaps on Americans?  (Follow-on w/2a & b)

#3 add new #3:  do you believe the American people were told the truth about our reasons for going to war in Iraq?  (Follow-on by renumbering #s 3 - 5).

I agree with you about trying to get a read on how people view the Democrats (and/or Congress in general).  Open-ended questions are better than boxed-in.  

by rba on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:22:29 AM EST

poll questions (none / 0)

Chris, I'm thrilled that you're taking the initiative to get questions framed more appropriately out there. I can't wait to see the results.

Here are my comments:

Iraq questions:

  1. add "Because Saddam Hussein brutalized his people" to the list of reasons. Also, in this question I'd be inclined (so as not to antagonize respondents) to say "Why do you think it was right to send troops to Iraq?"

  2. Questions like this have burned us before because the median position in America seems to be "bring the troops home, but not precipitately." If one of your options is "bring the troops home as soon as possible" you will find people who want to bring the troops home choosing the "keep troops" option.

I would rephrase the question as "Do you think the U.S. military should keep troops in Iraq indefinitely, or bring them home as soon as the security situation in Iraq allows it?" or some such thing.

Impeachment/investigation questions:

These are terrific. I would just change #1 and #2 to read "warrantless domestic spying." That makes it clearer to those respondents who may be coming up with answers on the spot exactly why the spying might be impeachable.

Other questions:

Domestic spying questions will be hard to ask because (as Bush is demonstrating) the subject is slippery. Somehow you have to work the fact that Bush is bypassing the FISA court into the question -- otherwise people will think like Bush: "We may need to spy to catch terrorists." But if you find a way to put the FISA court point in there, the question will be long and/or sound like push polling.

I would also love to see favorable/unfavorable ratings for Democrats, but we have to be aware what the results will be. The only clear candidates with major national name recognition are Hillary Clinton and John Kerry. Their numbers will be better than candidates like Feingold/Clark/Warner who are more popular among those familiar with them.

Thanks again for your efforts.

by dal20402 on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:29:00 AM EST

Re: poll questions (none / 0)

I would just change #1 and #2 to read "warrantless domestic spying."

Change that to "domestic spying without a warrant" or something similar. Otherwise, I guarantee someone will think you are asking about unwarranted (i.e. unneccesary) spying. There will be plenty of people who think that while it may be a necessary thing to do from a national security standpoint, that it is still not ethical or legal if a warrant is not first obtained.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:10:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

excellent questions (none / 0)

Very well phrased. The one thing I'd worry about is the word "spying". Can you find something more neutral (and, indeed, descriptive) there?

Secondly, you will have to find as neutral and 'mainstream' a polling organization as possible so that the mainstream media will trust the results.

by sdedeo on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:33:49 AM EST

Domestic spying questions (none / 0)

  1.  (All) Next, we would like to ask you some questions about your feelings regarding eveasdropping and civil liberties.  Do you believe that the President is justified in ordering electronic eavesdropping within the United States without obtaining a court order?

  2.  (If "NO") Would you support legislation that would allow the President to order electronic eavesdropping within the US without a court order?

  3.  (All) Please rate your perception of the vulnerability of the United States to terrorist attacks out of a scale of ten, one being not very vulnerable and ten being very vulnerable

  4.  (All) Do you believe it is more important that the federal government gaurantee your protection from unreasonable searches, including electronic eavesdropping or that the government do everything in its power to investigate potential terrorists?

I think it is really important to look for a potential correlation between question three and question four.
by Robot Economist on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:40:50 AM EST

Re: Domestic spying questions (none / 0)

I was thinking maybe something more like this:

(All) Do you believe that it is within the executive power of the President of the United States to order phone wiretaps without obtaining a legal warrant?

---Bush keeps pushing this idea of executive power, so why not use it in a question?

Mark
by Mark J. Bowers on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:48:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Domestic spying questions (none / 0)

Your question 4 is a bit push-ish, as it makes it sound too much like the wiretapping is being done on the Average Joe down the street instead of only on people with ties to terrorist organizations, as the Bush admin claims (I am referring to the "your protection from unreasonable searches" part). You would have to reword "your" to be something more neutral.

Perhaps a question is needed about whether or not the person being polled things that their civil liberties are at risk due to this type of wiretapping.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:19:51 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Domestic spying questions (none / 0)

How about a question that asks whether or not the respondent beleives Bush's assertion that he didn't spy on Americans but only terrorists? Not sure how it could be worded. This would help in gauging Bush's honesty rating.
by Erik on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:13:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls (2.00 / 0)

Great idea. I get so frustrated by the way so many pollsters phrase their questions, and believe that the results are skewed. Especially because of the difference between what a person might perceive the questioner to be asking versus the carefully worded to be confusing question.

In any case kudos. I don't have the qualifications of previous posters to come up with the best wording.

However, I do think that a lot of people who respond to questions about the Iraq War are wording their answers so that they do not seem to be unsupportive of our troops. The Viet Nam wound about that still runs deep.

So I would like to see any questions along that line worded so that they can respond to whether we should be there and when we should leave in a way that removes their fear of harming troop morale.

I also think that there should be something asked to determine if: 1) They or any immediate family member has served in the military. 2) And if anyone they know is serving there or not. I think that can make a difference in how they answer.

Regarding impeachment there is a similar problem. Too many people seem to fear impeaching Bush would result in a President Cheney. Question should be asked in a manner that either: 1)Determines if that is a factor in the answer; 2)Allows them to set aside that issue.

In order to best evaluate the person's responses I would also suggest there is some sort of questioning that would determine their levels of:
News knowledge: Perhaps a specific question or two that would determine if they even pay attention to current events. (Few people are going to out and out admit that they don't.)

And information as to where they obtain their news. Not just tv vs newspaper vs internet. But Bill O'Reilly and Drudge or Brian Williams and Time or Keith Olbermann and Air America type of breakdown.

Civics knowledge: Questions to determine their comprehension of the Constitution, Bill of Rights, FISA etc. I think of it as a way to see if they are just responding based on what their favorite 'talking head' has told them, or if they have done any thinking on the issues themselves.

Thanks for the opportunity to weigh in!


Old hippies never die, they just learn to blog.
by zesty grapher on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:44:32 AM EST

On the war (3.00 / 0)

I'm way out of my depth in terms of actually phrasing the questions properly, but if you can work it in, I'd be interested in something that I've often wondered about.

Find out whether the person originally supported the war but has since changed their mind and if so, why? There are obviously three main camps on the war- opponents from the start, supporters from the start, and those that switched. Knowing why people are switching might help to refine the message.

by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:58:38 AM EST

Re: On the war (none / 0)

Agreed.  This question should of course come after the question of whether the respondent currently believes the war was a mistake.
by ZamboniGuy on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 12:25:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (none / 0)

Of course to be fair, then you also need to ask if they originally did not support the war, but do now.
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:24:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (3.00 / 2)

True (though I haven't met any of those folks, that doesn't mean they aren't out there). Perhaps you do something like:

  1. did you originally support the war?
  2. do you currently support the war?
  3. (if mind changed) did you change your mind because of x, y, z, or something else?

this way there isn't a push in either direction and there also isn't a push in BOTH directions in the interest of fairness.
by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:43:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (none / 0)

That sounds good to me!
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 03:02:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (3.00 / 1)

I'd ask this question or series of questions last, though. The first objective is to find out what people think now. Asking about earlier views would prejudice what they answered to the rest.

Also, I'd guess that people wouldn't really be totally honest with this. If they think it's a mistake now, they'll probably say they always thought it was a mistake. People don't like to admit error.

by BriVT on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 09:29:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (none / 0)

You could be right, but at the same time, if they think it's because Bush hoodwinked them or because they think Bush f'ed things up, they might relish the opportunity to tell people that it could have worked if wasn't for Bush or blah blah.

I don't know whether this is a legit question/set of questions to include in this poll, but it's certainly something that I've wondered about for a long time.

by Lucas O'Connor on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:43:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: On the war (none / 0)

Me too.

And the other thing I've wondered about is the military vote in the 2004 election. I know that my county's, Broward County's, military vote went to Kerry. I've looked everywhere for the results of other counties and states.

I even emailed John Zogby. He actually wrote me back and said he didn't think the results could be found.

Dare to be free.
by misscee on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 07:43:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

warrantless Eavesdropping sans spying (none / 0)

Eavesdropping is a more accurate word...the only worry is that some people we call don't know what it means. sad statement on America.  But not as sad as the 30% you will find that say Saddam was involved in 9/11...gee, I wonder where they got that idea.
by DaveB on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 12:00:09 PM EST

Some Will Want to Wait and See (3.00 / 1)

I would take issue with the choices on impeachment questions 2 and 4.  It is presuming the respondent has pre-judged the issue, and has a most-desired outcome already.  I can easily see someone saying, "Well my most-desired outcome depends on what it is Congress finds out."

I believe either a choice should be added, "Depends on investigation's findings", or "I do not have a pre-desired outcome".

OR, the questions could just cut to the chase: "If the investigation reveals the President knowingly broke the law/knowingly manipulated intelligience data, what do you believe should be the consequence?"

by howlless on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 12:09:42 PM EST

Re: Some Will Want to Wait and See (none / 0)

I agree.  We need to not pre-judge with our questions, even though many of us have already made up our mind.

Along the line of the eavesdropping, I'd like to see something that questions Bush's underlying proposition that when in a war, a President does not have to abide by any laws.  (Of course the claim is actually that the Constitution gives the President the right to override laws without outside input.)

A question along those lines could go along ways to undermining some of the torture questions, eavesdropping and other shenanigans going on these days.

BTW: I also like the "strongly agree, agree, disagree, strongly disagree, not sure" format better than a yes/no.  It gives a lot more depth to the results.

Thanks for looking into this.

-N

by Natural on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 05:40:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Some Will Want to Wait and See (none / 0)

Agree that the questions are leading.  They assume the results of the investigation.  The questions should be of the "If the investigation reveals that President Bush approved spying that is contrary to the constitution, or spying without a warrant on conversations of large numbers of Americans then what do you believe should be the result?" variety and give a range of options such as censure, impeachment, removal from office, mroe Dems in congress, more copngressional oversight--like that.  
by Mimikatz on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 05:52:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Reworded (none / 0)

I suggest rewording a couple of the questions.

Investigation and Impeachment Questions

  1. (All): Next, we would like to ask you some questions on possible investigations of President Bush. First, should Congress conduct an investigation into President Bush's policy of allegedly illegal domestic spying on American citizens without a warrant?
  2. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's policy of allegedly illegal domestic spying would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

by Alvord on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 12:13:31 PM EST

Are we? (none / 0)

Do you think the US is in a legal state of war?
by AlphaHydroxy on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:20:34 PM EST

Contribute (none / 0)

I don't earn much but Chris if you need us to contribute just put the info out and I'll contribute in my own small way.
by ayoosilver on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:42:44 PM EST

Waste of Money (none / 0)

I think this is a waste.  No matter how "well-worded" your questions are, and I'm sure they will be... the "opposition" will fund their own "well-worded" questions, and this poll (and the few thousand dollars it took to fund it) will be nothing but a blip on the radar screen... pissing in the wind. Instead, send your money to Texas Democratic candidates, since MyDD is apparently not going to fundraise for them. One of the Republican seats is going uncontested, after all.
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 02:59:18 PM EST

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

Because long ago that's what the Republicans did. They claimed that the best way to power was to take your advice and look how it turned out. Oh that's right they didn't take your advice.
by Erik on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:05:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

I don't understand anything of what you just wrote.

Are you saying that we should NOT fund Texas Democrats? (because that's what I suggested, and I obviously disagree with you if that's the case... I don't feel we should punish "Texas Democrats" who stepped up to the table because one seat isn't contested).

Or are you saying that the way Republicans gained "power" was through funding their own polls... because that's really not true, now, is it?

So, while I appreciate knee-jerk vitriol (see half of my comments... O.K. Boatwright, 75%)... it would be somewhat helpful if you outlined what the hell, exactly, you're talking about.  

Again, I'll spell it out for you in 2 short simple sentences what I said above.

  1. Don't fund polling with a limited budget.
  2. Fund candidates.

From what I can tell... Republicans do (and did) both, yet they have essentially unlimited funds to work with.

Now, it's a perfectly legitimate statement to express an OPINION, that funding independent polling is not as important as funding Democratic candidates... so please refrain from being an --- ----...

Invest in nature
by NCDem on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:29:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (3.00 / 1)

Obviously the way the tv news laps up polls shows this is not a "waste" - you can argue the money is better spent given to candidates but I don't see your cynicism of the possible effect of this poll as being justified.

It's not like the progressive blogs have been polling for years and not seen it have any effect, isn't this worth a shot?  After all, the blogs have done plenty of fundraising for Democrats up to 2004 and that didn't exactly win back the government.

by scientician on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:13:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

point taken...
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 08:17:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

I'll be... a milestone has been reached.  That was my 1000th, comment.  You should be honored.
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 08:18:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

I felt the same way. But when I saw the publicity that this is getting, I changed my mind. Chris Rocks!
Dare to be free.
by misscee on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 08:26:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

What publicity?

Invest in nature
by NCDem on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 09:50:18 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Waste of Money (none / 0)

Oops. Blog publicity not msm publicity. There was a piece on ImpeachPAC on Scoop ... does that count? ;)

I changed my mind because at the very least I think I am doing something . My empty bank account didn't do a whole lot to change things during the last election.

Dare to be free.
by misscee on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 02:18:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Some Rewording/Additions (none / 0)

Iraq questions:

#2: reword "because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda" to "because Saddam Hussein had connections with terrorist organizations" - why? 'Cause Bush said we were waging war on terrorism, not just on Al-Qaeda.

Also add options for:

"because Saddam Hussein violated the human rights of his citizens"

"because we need the oil" (so many people still claim that's the real reason, so might as well put it in there)

"because it is a matter of national security" (if I were to "push-word" it, I would say, "because it is better to confront and defeat terrorists 'over there' instead of fight them 'over here'" - this plays to Bush's doctrine of pre-emption, and since it would be at the top of my personal list, I think it needs to be there :-)

Add something to 4b or add a 4c something about whether we should maintain an indefinate military presence in Iraq. Or maybe add that to the list of reasons back in #2.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 03:01:04 PM EST

Long term tracking important (3.00 / 2)

This issue has been covered a little bit, but I think it should be emphasized: re-using questions from survey to survey is really important to do.

I'm happy that you've drafted questions based on ones that were asked previously.  This should allow you to compare results on these questions with results when they were asked last.  To the extent possible, you should use the exact language - that way there's no question about whether the wording is what's giving the differnce in results rather than change in opinion.

Likewise, in planning for the future of the poll, I would recommend reserving a portion of the survey for questions that can be used repeatedly over time.  So, for those questions that no one's asked, this initial survey can start the series.  This is clearly less sexy than impeachment and Iraq, etc., but I would say that in 5-10 years, if you've got your permanent questions in the survey, the series of results that's been built up on the repeated questions will be most valuable.  

Don't get me wrong - a slice of a survey each year should be given to the more topical issues of the day.  It's just that only a portion of the survey should be devoted to new or revolving questions, and a fair share of them should be repeated each time in order to make this a useful tool for gauging public opinions on the topics we care about.  

by PeterB on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 03:38:53 PM EST

The Elephant in the Room (none / 0)

Please find a way to introduce the following:

Do you think that the US should establish permanent military bases in Iraq?

This is the elephant in the room that nobody is talking about, and it is most timely.

by camilow on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 03:51:05 PM EST

Re: The Elephant in the Room (none / 0)

Maybe something more along the lines of: Do you beleive that the United states should occupy Iraq by establishing military bases their permanently, temporarily, or not at all?
by Erik on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:01:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Elephant in the Room (none / 0)

Yeah, 'cause that's not a biased question, or anything, is it? That "occupy Iraq" part is pretty neutral, huh? It makes it sound like we would set up bases in Iraq regardless of whether or not the Iraqi government wants us to. The reality is that they will most likely invite us to set up bases, and we will do so. I agree this question needs to be in there (that's why I mentioned it in a previous post), but certainly, not worded in that manner, if you want this thing to be taken seriously.
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 11:58:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

After question one (none / 0)

you should ask do you strongly favor, favor, oppose, or stongly oppose President Bush? It would show there is bipartisan oppostion to the war and only ardent Bush followers support their Republican Party  war.
by Erik on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 03:59:03 PM EST

Re: After question one (none / 0)

I'm assuming there will be a few boilerplate questions about things like party affiliation and who they voted for in 2004, yes?
by scientician on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:15:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Very cool (none / 0)

Polling is a great idea.

Remember all the arguments about polls in 2004? Granted, the GOP types will denigrate your polling, but they will denigrate anything that shows them in a bad light.

Others have alluded to this, but IMHO the two keys are:

  1. That the polling is as scientific and objective as possible. (To which you will rightly respond, "duh." :-) But some will have concerns about it.

  2. That the left blogsphere pitches in and publicizes the results so that they leak into the SCLM. Easier said than done, but count me in for that effort.

by jondevore on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:07:07 PM EST

Re: Very cool (3.00 / 1)

Remember all the arguments about polls in 2004? Granted, the GOP types will denigrate your polling, but they will denigrate anything that shows them in a bad light.

Then feel free to point out to them that you had at least one Republican offering his $.02 (or maybe even a nickle's worth) on how to make the questions as unbiased as possible (at least I hope everyone here feels that's what I have been doing).

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 12:29:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just Venting (none / 0)

I am sure the poll will be appropriate and professional, but I would like to imagine some push questions.  How 'bout this one:

As a fundamentalist Christian, Bush believes all Muslims go to Hell when they die.  Do you think this was a factor when he ordered intelligence to be manipulated to justify the illegal invasion of Iraq?

by Winston Smith on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:29:52 PM EST

Re: Just Venting (none / 0)

Hey, he was just helping them get their 72 virgins a bit quicker. What's wrong with that?
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 12:15:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

A suggestion about this post... (none / 0)

Since this post will be up for a "few days", I suggest that only 1 paragraph be visible on the front page of MyDD, so that it takes up less space and visitors don't have to scroll down to see the newest front-page posts...
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:35:07 PM EST

Copy that (none / 0)

I am working a congressional race, and agree entirely with Robot Economist's comments above.  His (her?) questions would yeild information that would be very useful in crafting the message for our race, particularly 3 and 4.  That being said, I would edit them as follows, and add a question 5, which is shown below:

   3.  Rate your concern about the United States being attacked by terrorists on a scale of one to ten, with ten being very concerned and one being not at all concerned

   4.  I am going to read you two statements.  Plese tell me which statement more closely reflects your views:  

(these would be rotated in the actual poll)

The government should do everything in its power to protect America from terrorist attacks, even things infringe on American's civil liberties.

Terrorists are not enough of a threat to America to justify the government forfieting our privacy and freedom.

5.   I am going to read you two statements.  Plese tell me which statement more closely reflects your views:  

(these would be rotated in the actual poll)

President Bush's program of evesdropping on the telephone conversations and emails of US citizens without a warrant shows he is a strong leader who is serious about protecting American's safety.

President Bush's program of evesdropping on the telephone conversations and emails of US citizens without a warrant is excessively intrusive response and shows he is overly fearful of terrorists.

by brew on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 04:58:39 PM EST

Re: Copy that (none / 0)

As I have said elsewhere, wording it this way makes it sound like every Tom, Dick, and Harry is being spied upon all the time, and that everyone's civil liberties have been violated, and that no phone conversation or email is safe from prying ears and eyes. Since this is far from what the administration claims is happening, using wording like this is overly biased.
"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 12:21:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This is great. (none / 0)

My two cents would be to keep the poll focused on the president and not complicate it by introducing questions on Democratic presidential nominees.

Great work Chris.

Witty comment goes here...
by michael in chicago on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 05:53:13 PM EST

My .02 (none / 0)

  1. Agree with the above comments about the media, have to be ready to push it from mydd, lets get you guys on TV!  Also through other interest groups and electeds.

  2. I'd leave it to these questions and forget Pres candidates for now.

This is a relevant policy issue where we can drive the debate.  Pres polling will add to the cost of the poll and is so far out that it does not mean much.

Additionally, Pres polling is being done by many firms and news outlets, I see our role as filling in gaps they are missing.

http://www.johnedwards.com/nh
by epv72 on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 06:04:24 PM EST

On the domestic spying question: (none / 0)

GW's notion that we must fight them over there so we don't have to fight them over here seems to be in direct conflict with his statements about the scope of his domestic spying efforts.  In other words, if we are fighting to keep them over there, and going to great lengths to spy on them over here, doesn't that indicate that Bushco has failed to keep them over there??

Don't know how to get that into a survery question, but I hope you get my point.

by keepinon on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 06:33:43 PM EST

my thoughts (3.00 / 1)

1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq, or not?"

suggested replacement:
1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you about your feelings on Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you feel the United States made a mistake in keeping our troops in Iraq, or not?"

2. (If "DID NOT MAKE A MISTAKE"): Why do you think it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq? (can answer "yes" to multiple reasons). Because Saddam Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction; because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda; Because it will bring democracy to Iraq; Because it will bring democracy to the Middle East; Other reason or reasons

suggested replacement:
2. (If "DID NOT MAKE A MISTAKE"): Why do you feel it was not a mistake to send troops to Iraq? (can answer "yes" to multiple reasons). Because Saddam Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction; because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda; Because it will bring democracy to Iraq; Because it will bring democracy to the Middle East; Other reason or reasons.

3. (All): Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq, or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?

suggested replacement:
3. (All): Do you feel the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq, or do you feel the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?

4. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following possible outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

suggested replacement:
4. (If "conduct an investigation"): "Which of the following outcomes of an investigation into President Bush's involvement in faulty claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

On # 4 I would also ask pretty much the same thing about Cheney.  And I nixed possible from possible outcomes.  It seemed a little too wordy.

5. (All) "Do you think the Judiciary Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives should begin holding hearings to determine whether or not to impeach President Bush, or don't you think it's necessary?"

suggested replacement:
5. (All) "Do you feel the Judiciary Committee of the U.S. House of Representatives should begin holding hearings to determine whether or not to impeach President Bush?"

On # 5 I removed the "Or do you think it's necessary.  Let them just deal with the question.  And the answer should be yes or no.

On all of them I replaced think with feel.  I'm sure you hvae your reasons for using "think".  But more people would be comfortable sharing their fellings than their thoughts.  And I believe you'd get a higher percentage of honest answers.

Thanks for taking the initiatice on this.

DAGGER
by goplies on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 06:53:37 PM EST

sending vs. keeping (none / 0)

I'd really like a poll to determine whether people think it was a mistake to invade Iraq - that is, to send our troops there.  The change you made, from "sending" to "keeping", makes it a completely different question.

Many people who were strongly opposed to invading Iraq felt, once we did invade, that we needed to keep our troops there.  "We broke it, we fix it".  Over the past couple of years, that sentiment has been reversing, and many people who felt that way have changed their minds - but not all.  And in the meantime, many people who did support the original invasion, either never wanted us to stay and occupy, or have similarly changed their mind since.

In other words, whether or not someone thought "keeping our troops" in Iraq was a good idea, is:

  • ... fuzzy, because their opinion may have shifted over time, and when you ask in the past tense without hooking the question to a specific memorable event, different people will pick different times
  • ... separate from whatever their opinion is about the initial invasion.  They may think the invasion was a mistake but keeping the troops in was not, or they may think the invasion was the right thing to do, but keeping the troops in for so long was a mistake.

by cos on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 12:29:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: sending vs. keeping (none / 0)

fair enough :)
DAGGER
by goplies on Tue Jan 10, 2006 at 09:18:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polling (none / 0)

Good idea to pursue this.  I agree with the comments by sdedeo and Robot Economist with how to improve this poll with regard to replacement of the word "spying", as many with another view would claim this is necessary for our national security from suspected terroists.

I would also add the following to #3.

Do you think the U.S. should keep military troops in Iraq "without a timetable for withdrawal", or do you think the U.S. should bring its troops home as soon as possible?

I also agree with the comments that added granularity in the responses, such as use of "strongly agree, agree, neutral, disagree, and strongly disagree" should assist with the analysis of the results.

by stuw on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 07:04:59 PM EST

Changes... (none / 0)

I agree with above posters who want "warrantless" thrown in to the wording on eavesdropping/spying/wiretapping.

I disagree with the "neutral" language that RepTroll is proposing, or at least most of it.

And I also agree with a couple of comments that the  "what outcome would you like to see" questions are a bit leading.  There needs to be a phrase "assuming investigations find wrongdoing" in there...

by Phoenix Rising on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 07:45:21 PM EST

Sending troops home when is vague (none / 0)

I think it would be better if you give them a choice ie., immediately, w/in 1 year, w/in 2 years or as long as it takes.
by jasmine on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 09:23:53 PM EST

Treasonous behavior (none / 0)

Something like:

Should the people that leaked the existance of the secret NSA domestic spying program to the press be tried for treason?

Should the people that leak the identity of undercover CIA agents to the press be tried for treason?

See what I'm getting at?  W is calling this dom. spying leak treasonous, but it seems no different that telling Novak that Valerie Plame was an undercover CIA agent.

Others could probably fix the wording or unite the questions better than I.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?
by The lurking ecologist on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:00:32 PM EST

Government spending priorities (none / 0)

This could be part of the series that is repeated over time:

Do you believe that it is currently acceptable for the federal government to be running budget deficits?

If no: Would you prefer to see the government reduce deficit spending by cutting social and environmental programs or by raising taxes?

For future use, if the annual budget is in surplus:

The federal budget for last year was in surplus.  Do you favor using this surplus money to:
   Increase government programs
   Pay down interest charges on previous govt debts
   Fund tax cuts

As with my previous suggestions above, others can/should improve wording.  Maybe this is too push-y.

How is John McCain different than John Edwards?
by The lurking ecologist on Thu Jan 05, 2006 at 11:10:22 PM EST

Time to be a killjoy (3.00 / 2)

I mentioned in another post that the wording is critical, or you'll throw your money away before you even spend it.  If the questions look leading the results will be undermined and it won't make a dent in the media.  There's a reason most poll questions sound dry and clinical.  So lets rework them.

* 1. (All): "Next, we'd like to ask you some questions about Iraq. First: In view of the developments since we first sent our troops to Iraq, do you think the United States was correct or made a mistake in sending troops to Iraq?"

In the original question you have "made a mistake", negative, "or not", neutral.  This doesn't give a positive frame to the people who support the war, which colors it a bit.  The rewording gives you "correct", positive, and "made a mistake", negative.  You can rotate the two if desired.

* 2. (If "WAS CORRECT"): Why do you think it was correct to send troops to Iraq? (can answer "yes" to multiple reasons). Because Saddam Hussein had Weapons of Mass Destruction; because Saddam Hussein had connections with Al-Qaeda; Because it will bring democracy to Iraq; Because it will bring democracy to the Middle East; Other reason or reasons.

I agree that this is an excellent question that's been needed to be asked for quite some time.  No changes.

I don't know what you're trying to accomplish with #3.  Keep troops there or bring them home as soon as possible?  Unless someone's against any sort of withdrawal at all, no one's going to say keep them there.  It's all in the definition of "as soon as possible."  I think you really just wanted it to set up #4.  They would be better asked as follows:

* 3. What should be done with regards to our troop situation in Iraq?  Should we bring them home immediately, gradually withdraw them over one or two years, or not withdraw them for at least two years?

I struggled with the third choice but that's the best I can come up with for now.  It may need more work.

* 4. Do you think the United States should or should not set a timetable for withdrawal of our troops in Iraq?

Just ask it outright, no need to preface it.  "Should or should not" is a little more neutral than tacking "or not" on at the end, but it's a more minor point than in #1.  I suppose you can filter out those who said "withdraw immediately".

Investigation and Impeachment Questions (Five questions)

* 1. (All): Next, we would like to ask you some questions on possible investigations of President Bush. First, do you think Congress should or should not conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with obtaining wiretaps without a warrant?

The phrase "domestic spying" will color the results, though this is hard to avoid.  "Wiretaps without a warrant" is slightly too benign, but is the closest to neutral you're going to get.  Anything that mentions "illegal" or "possibly illegal" will really skew it, even though that's exactly what it is.

* 2. (If "conduct an investigation"): "If it is determined that President Bush broke the law when obtaining the wiretaps without warrants, which of the following outcomes would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

Preface this with if it's found to be illegal, since otherwise you're asking about punitive actions out of nowhere and will just get the people who think he's guilty now.  This is still a bit of a push since you have three negative outcomes and one neutral.  This would have to be done at the end so as to not color the rest of the poll.

* 3. (All): Do you think Congress should or should not conduct an investigation into President Bush's involvement with claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq?

Even though we know it's definitively true, not everyone accepts "faulty" sadly, so that's a push.  "Allegedly faulty" concedes too much, it just makes me bristle.  So cut it out altogether and let it be colored by people's own conception of how the claims are.  That's how the real public opinion would work out anyway.

* 4. (If "conduct an investigation"): "If it is determined that President Bush exaggerated the claims concerning weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which of the following possible outcomes would you most like to see happen? Bush is impeached and removed from office. Bush resigns from office. Bush is censured by Congress, and remains in office. Bush remains in office and Congress takes no action against him."

I don't know if this one is salvageable.  Did the same thing as in #2, but you need to choose what the findings are.  Lied?  Exaggerated?  Misled?  Either way I don't think the results would be useful because it's asking people to concede things some of them never will in real life.  Some will say "yeah, he should be impeached if he misled us" but never accept that he misled us.  The legality of the wiretaps can be found more definitively.

#5 is again asking about punishment sans any pretense.  You can ask it if you want, but you'll only get a yes out of people who already think he's guilty, not people who could be persuaded he is with the results of an investigation.

by Gg on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 12:09:18 AM EST

Two questions (none / 0)

First, who are you commissioning to conduct the poll?

What's the objective of the poll?

by upstatenydem on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 12:50:02 AM EST

A question about Iran (none / 0)

How about a forward-looking question?

"The Bush Administration says that Iran's nuclear program is a potential threat to the United States. Should the United States launch a pre-emptive attack against Iran's nuclear facilities?"

by Quaoar on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 09:08:44 AM EST

on demographic questions (none / 0)

many of y'all have discussed adding demographic questions, like age, party affiliation, region, etc.

i am only tangentially familiar with polling methodology as my concentration has always been in experimental design, but i'll offer one perspective.

asking demographic questions has been demonstrated repeatedly to bias results [see claude steele's brilliant work on "stereotype threat"].

the gist of it, is that when asked about specific personal characteristics people consider those more significantly in answering questions than if they weren't asked any questions.

for instance, if you give a half black and half white group the GRE english exam (a difficult test for anyone), and you give the control group no personal questions, and the test group racial questions, the control group will do the same across gender lines and their will be a statically significant difference in the group where racial issues were discussed.
i suspect similarly that if you ask demographic data at the beginning it will increase the partisanship of results.

is it common practice to but that data at the end?  the problem there is a premature aborting of the interview where you wouldn't have party ID, etc.

also significant is the ordering of the questions.

for instance, if you conduct the experiment described above with asian women and the math GRE, you get even more fascinating results. when you ask gender first and race second, they begin the test thinking about their race "asian" rather than gender "woman". this leads to positive math stereotypes and better than average results. switch the order (race then gender) and they begin considering woman, and do worse than average. so if the personal characteristics go first, order is important, perhaps rotation is necessary. the problem is that increasing rotation increases variables and decreases the n for any particular  choice set, thus necessitating more responses.  

by MrT on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 11:17:20 AM EST

Continuity And Comparability (3.00 / 1)

As has already been noted, one thing that increases the value of a poll is comparability to other polls.  I wholeheartedly endorse the idea of asking some questions that can be asked repeatedly for years into the future. At the same time, I'd like to see us create some continuity with previously-asked questions that deserve to be asked again, and used for their value in cross-tabbing.

Here are a set of questions from Project on International Policy Alternatives survey of Oct 12-18, 2004.  They include a well-worded question about the decision to invade, a good question about the impact of troops there today, and four questions that illuminate people's belief in Bush Administration propaganda.

Q7. Do you think the US made the right decision or the wrong decision in going to war against Iraq?

Q7b: Do you think the US military presence in Iraq is currently:
(A) A stabilizing force
(B) Provoking more conflict than it is preventing

Q13. Is it your belief that, just before the war, Iraq:
(A) Had actual weapons of mass destruction
(B) Had no weapons of mass destruction but had a major program for developing them
(C) Had some limited activities that could be used to help develop weapons of mass destruction, but not an active program
(D) Did not have any activities related to weapons of mass destruction

Q14. Is it your impression that the US has or has not found clear evidence in Iraq that Saddam Hussein was working closely with the al-Qaeda terrorist organization?
(A) US has
(B) US has not

Q15. Thinking about how all the people in the world feel about the US having gone to war with Iraq, do you think:
(A) The majority of people favor the US having gone to war
(B) The majority of people oppose the US having gone to war
(C) Views are evenly balanced

Q16. Please select what you think is the best description of the relationship between the Iraqi government under Saddam Hussein and the terrorist group al-Qaeda.
(A) There was no connection at all
(B) A few al-Qaeda individuals visited Iraq or had contact with Iraqi officials but Iraq did not provide substantial support to al-Qaeda
(C) Iraq gave substantial support to al-Qaeda, but was not involved in the September 11th attacks
(D) Iraq was directly involved in carrying out the September 11th attacks

by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 01:07:07 PM EST

I love the idea. (none / 0)

I loved it when ImpeachPAC did it, and I love it now.

Participants in the IMPEACH project will be doing our best to skew your results!

by Kagro X on Fri Jan 06, 2006 at 06:15:47 PM EST

problem with iraq withdrawal questions (none / 0)

My first reaction to the pair of questions about withdrawing from Iraq is that I would have a hard time answering accurately, and might be drawn into the wrong sub-question.  Because I think my view is likely to be shared by a significant chunk of anti-Iraq-war people, I'd like to see questions that can capture and measure this view.

I believe:

  1. We should withdraw from Iraq mostly, but will need to leave some troops there for support for as long as Iraq wants them, which could be a long time.
  2. We need a timetable for withdrawal
  3. Withdrawal should be gradual but rapid

The problem here is, I do feel that some "troops should remain in Iraq", even though as you can see from the rest of what I said, I'm pro-withdrawal.  Think about how that relates to questions 3 & 4.
by cos on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 11:59:00 AM EST

Security v. Freedom (none / 0)

Re RepTroll's comments about Bush's claims that he only conducts domestic surveillance of folks connected with foreign terrorists. This is an open question. If the NSA used "data mining," as many have suggested, then they did surveil Tom, Dick, and Harriette. The question may have to adapt to the evolving story.

Re By Brew's comment. It seems likely that framing the story as a conflict of the values of security vs. freedom is fundamentally a mistake.

  1. For one, the terms are overly abstract and depend on how the respondent will project their imagination into the question. Some will imagine "security" as exigent (e.g. a man with a gun next to their head) and "freedom" as a luxury (e.g. the freedom to publish bestial images on library internets). Others will flip the equation in a way that reveals freedom as necessity (e.g. free press) and security as luxury (e.g. invading Iraq).

  2. Indeed, there are vigorous arguments that Bush's activities have little improved security, e.g. reasons having nothing to do with security for invading Iraq as well as the (in)security consquences; the merely symbolic nature of Guantanamo; the inefficiency and unintended consequences of torture; the inefficiency of data mining; cronyism; succumbing to political pressures re homeland security spending and government regulations, and so on.

  3. Framing the question as one of freedom or security only supports Bush's claim that his actions improve security. DD's poll questions about domestic eavesdropping or surveillance without a warrant ask the right question and demonstrate that there is a different way of talking entirely than to frame things as between freedom and security. Indeed, FISA protects both freedom and security. (Maybe there should be a question about executive power and checks and balances.)

In sum, there are three salient problems with the frame of security v. freedom.

*    Security v. Freedom is overly abstract
*    Bush's claims of security are bogus
*    Security and freedom need not be in conflict and is not necessarily the main issue with the NSA spying.

Thank you.

Christian

by Christian Herold on Sat Jan 07, 2006 at 02:54:19 PM EST

MyDD polling project (none / 0)

Chris,
A friend and colleague brought your blog to my attention this morning.
Two items:
1)Great blog! We need more action such as yours in order to eliminate the rash of Republican rhetoric from misguiding the American voters!
2) I work for a professional fundraising and polling firm (located in the once liberal-stronghold state Minnesota). We would be happy to help with both your fundraising and polling activities. From a questionnaire standpoint, we would help you craft the questions in a way to best get fair and legitimate responses.
Please feel free to contact me with any questions you may have.
Sincerely,
Scott
GoDemOrGoHome
by GoDemOrGoHome on Mon Jan 09, 2006 at 02:15:21 PM EST

you break it you own it (none / 0)

I would be interested to see how many people who do think the original decision to invade was a mistake, now think we should keep our troops there, even increase the number.
In other words the "you break it you own it" crowd.
Do you think we have a responsibility to stabilise Iraq now that we made such a mess of it? obviously not worded quite like that.
by mgason on Tue Jan 17, 2006 at 09:53:32 AM EST


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