Polling Project, Fifth Release

Like the fourth release, the fifth release of the polling project focuses on Iraq. It covers two questions, #14 and #15, which describe two different troop deployment proposals:

Q14. Given events since the invasion, do you support the decision to maintain a U.S. combat force of over 100,000 troops in Iraq for the next few years?


                                    All       Dem      Rep      Ind
Strongly Support        15.6        5.2      29.2     13.7
Support                       38.2      28.2      49.3     38.0
Oppose                       24.0      30.7      16.0     24.6
Strongly Oppose        22.2      35.9        5.6     23.7

Q15. A new troop deployment plan was proposed recently. The plan is to withdraw US troops from Iraq but to keep them close by in neighboring countries like Kuwait to be sent back in if they are needed to maintain civil order. Do you, strongly support, support, oppose or strongly oppose this new troop deployment plan for Iraq?


                                    All       Dem      Rep      Ind
Strongly Support        11.8        8.8      17.9       9.5
Support                       51.5      50.5      46.8     56.4
Oppose                       22.3      25.1      23.6     18.7
Strongly Oppose        14.4      15.6       11.8     15.4

The second proposal might look familiar to many on the blogosphere. This is because, as I understand it, it is the proposal made by Congressman John Murtha back in November. As you can see from the numbers, it polls higher than the "stay the course indefinitely" proposal that many commentators, especially those who are supportive of the Bush administration, have argued we must follow. Overall, 63% of the country support Murtha's proposal, while 55% of the country supports the "stay the course" proposal.

What is perhaps most stunning about the Murtha proposal is how it is supported almost exactly the same by Democrats (59.3%), Republicans (63.7%) and Independents (65.9%). Considering the size of these sub-samples, those differences are within the margin for error. The non-partisan nature of support for Murtha's plan stands in sharp contrast to the "say the course" plan, which features only 33% support from Democrats, and 79% support from Republicans. The broad support for Murtha's plan also stands in sharp contrast to the November vote on his plan in the House of Representatives, when only 3 members of Congress actually cast a vote in favor.

Looking a little more closely at these numbers, I also notice something else. Murth'a proposal does not have a lot of strong support or strong opposition. I think this indicates both that people are not familiar with his proposal, and that people are very, very interested in hearing new ideas about how to deploy our troops in relation to Iraq. Relating to the latter, the country is divided along partisan lines over Bush's plan, but wants to hear alternatives. Relating to the former, it is particularly interesting that in all the media fury over Murtha suggesting troop withdrawal, that the nation is still so unfamiliar with his plan, yet still very willing to listen to it and support it.

If only this was a debate that the media and the Republican Noise Machine actually waned to have. Instead, they have focused on attacking Murtha's personally, and even on attempts to slander his service record in order to keep a real debate on troop deployment off the table. People want to hear alternatives on Iraq, and they like what Murtha has proposed. Republicans would rather slander a veteran. If only we had an administration in charge of this country that was willing to listen to strong, pragmatic, and popular approaches to policy, rather than one that is hellbent on theory, ideology, and national division. If only we had a Democratic opposition that was willing to support strong, pragmatic, and popular ideas on troop deployment in Iraq when those ideas arise from within their own ranks. Right now, I don't think we have either.

Murth'a troop deployment plan is incredibly popular. That really should be big news.



Display:


Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

People aren't familiar with Murtha's plan because they can't identify it as Murtha's plan.  As far as they know, Murtha's plan is the insane junk version that left committee and called for immediate withdrawl.


"You say the world has lost it's love I say embrace what it's made of" -Dar Williams
by Valatan on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:17:49 PM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

Exactly. The plan was attacked not for its substance, but instead as some wacko plan not worthy of consideration. Poeple do like it though.


by Chris Bowers on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:20:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

MyDD isn't too familiar with Murtha's plan either. (none / 0)

In the MyDD version our withdrawn troops are all kept in the region in case they are needed.

In Murtha's version all we leave in the region is a quick reaction force, not the entire current deployment.


by grytpype on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 03:00:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't Muddle The Message With Mis-Information! (3.00 / 2)

This is indeed a very interesting and significant finding.  But please don't muddle it by repeating this piece of misinformation:

The broad support for Murtha's plan also stands in sharp contrast to the November vote on his plan in the House of Representatives, when only 3 members of Congress actually cast a vote in favor.

The vote in the House was for immediate withdrawl.  It was offered in Murtha's name, but that was just SOP GOP lying.

As Media Matters For America noted at the time critiizing how the GOP spin was repeated in the media:

Hannity falsely referred to Republican resolution as the "Murtha amendment"

On both his television and radio show, Fox News host Sean Hannity referred to a congressional resolution calling for the immediate termination of U.S. troop deployment in Iraq as the "Murtha amendment." But the resolution in question was not sponsored by Rep. John P. Murtha (D-PA). While Murtha had introduced a detailed measure that called for the withdrawal of American forces from Iraq "at the earliest practicable date," his resolution bore little resemblance to the Republican-sponsored measure Hannity was discussing. This one-sentence resolution -- described in news reports as a "political trap" and "aimed at embarrassing war critics" -- simply ordered "that the deployment of United States forces in Iraq be terminated immediately."

Read MMFA's full and quite detailed account here.


by Paul Rosenberg on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:21:49 PM EST

Re: Don't Muddle The Message With Mis-Information! (none / 0)

Thanks for that. I'll update the post reflecting this info later today.


by Chris Bowers on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:34:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

Is your polling copywrited -- that is to say, can we send letters to our congresscritters, or all Democratic congresscritters citing your data?

They need to know that the public isn't aware of Murtha's plan, and that we want them to start talking about it.  Loud.


by sozzy on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:28:34 PM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

Send it out to whoever you like!


by Chris Bowers on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:34:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

Chris, Refer back to my post on why I don't post. (PS-it's only when I have something constructive, at least to me, to say.)

I suggested that bloggers team up more with liberal radio hosts. They would surely all want you on to explain the poll and the results. Let people know you did this poll.


by mpower1952 on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 12:31:44 PM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

While I actually don't think Tim Kaine is a bad choice, I think this poll finding lends some support to those who believe Murtha would have been a great choice to respond to the SOTU.  If we have any hope of mkiang major gains this fall, then we can't run away from the Iraq issue.  Murtha has the potential to completely reframe the debate.


by danielj on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 01:19:17 PM EST

Rounding error? (none / 0)

It looks like for your "55% support 'stay the course', 63% support 'Murtha's plan'" figures you just added together the "all" column's strongly support and support rows.

If this is indeed the case those numbers work out to exactly 53.8% for "stay the course" and 63.3% for "Murtha's plan".  While 63.3% would normally be rounded down to 63%, and 53.8% would be rounded up to 54%, that only gives you 54% for "stay the course" not 55%.

This may seem like minor nitpicking, but there's already enough other factors being fudged in favor of the republicans in little ways.  Normally any poll like this (if it even asked about Murtha's plan, would not describe it but would simply say "Murtha's plan" and trigger the knee jerk "must vote against" reflex among many.  As it stands, I suspect that Republican support for the war would be far lower if they didn't see it as a Republican thing.

Granted, democrats are afflicted by partisan blindness too.  It seems to me though that democrats more often vote against DEmocratic talking points then Republicans do against republican talking points, for whatever reason.


by tolkien on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 02:53:11 PM EST

most interesting (none / 0)

chris, this has been the most interesting polling project post so far.  i was extremely curious to see whether people were buying that "stay the course" crap.  thanks for posting - can't wait to read the rest.


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 02:56:00 PM EST

ONLY TERRORISM, NOT CIVIL DISORDER (none / 0)

you've unfortunately misrepresented Murtha's plan.

the plan is NOT to go back in to prevent "civil disorder"

Murtha does not want us involved in Iraq's civil war.

The plan calls for an "over-the-horizon" force in Kuwait
only to go in in the case that terrorists set up camp or a
similar base of operations


by oh snap on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 03:17:39 PM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

The strong bi-partisan support for Murtha's plan, as long as it doesn't have Murtha's name attached to it, tells us one thing: the public supports Democratic ideas, they just don't support Democrats.

The GOP and their lackeys in the media have managed to instill an instinctive negative reaction to any instance of a "Democratic" adjective attached to a policy discussion.


by Chris Andersen on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 06:41:41 PM EST

No One's Shown That Murtha's Name Is A Turnoff (none / 0)

Where the hell did you get that idea?

Sure, Republicans have been conditioned to hate Democrats. So it's only natural that Democratic ideas are more popular with Republicans than Democrats themselves are.  But Clinton still had significantly higher approval ratings than Bush has now, which means that a lot of Republicans approved of him as well.


by Paul Rosenberg on Wed Feb 01, 2006 at 02:09:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Okay, this is now annoying (2.00 / 1)

The SOTU Address is now two hours away.  There is no longer any reason to keep trickling this stuff out a little at a time.  Nobody outside of avid blog readers is going to go back and piece together the bits.  It's too annoying.

Please, just publish your release and get it out there.


by DFLer on Tue Jan 31, 2006 at 06:43:01 PM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

Why does anybody expect a Dictator and a Fascist to listen to anybody? I listened to Murtha, I like the plan. Nearly all sane, sensible, reasonable, intelligent and progressive people do agree with Murtha. It is unfortunate that President Bush is  a total moron. He only listens to Dick Cheney,
which is also unfortunate, because not only is Dick
Cheney a moron, he visits secret prisons way too
often. And we know what they like to do in there, don't we?
by Euroman on Wed Feb 01, 2006 at 03:06:57 AM EST

Re: Polling Project, Fifth Release (none / 0)

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