More On Values/Data Bamboozlement And More

Last week, I wrote a comment, "Naive Reporting" criticizing Garance Franke-Ruta's article, "Remapping the Culture Debate', and her breathless enthusing over questionable data from Ted Nordhaus and Michael Shellenberger--culled from a fine-grained marketing survey--which is touted as giving better insight into how Democrats can win, while undermining supposedly cruder ways of thinking.

Responding to a general message they convey--about social solidarity and economic equality, , I quickly found some contrary data.  And I followed up with a diary, "Voter-Mining vs. Framing--Subtext and Substance", where a laid out a broader critique of how such data--even when good--could be dangerously misused. Now, Ruy Teixeira has a piece that Chris referred to, which, among other things, takes a closer look at other data more closely tied to specific claims about gender roles, and finds more contradictory data out there.

With the Dems forever seeking to run away from their base and their traditional commitments to social, racial and economic justice,  this topic cries out for further analysis.Teixeira's diary is a good starting point for continuing this exploration.

First, to fill in the backstory a bit.  My earlier comment responded primarily to this passage:

Looking at the data from 1992 to 2004, Shellenberger and Nordhaus found a country whose citizens are increasingly authoritarian while at the same time feeling evermore adrift, isolated, and nihilistic. They found a society at once more libertine and more puritanical than in the past, a society where solidarity among citizens was deteriorating, and, most worrisomely to them, a progressive clock that seemed to be unwinding backward on broad questions of social equity.
I cited the GSS variable EQWLTH--SHOULD GOVT REDUCE INCOME DIFFERENCES, which showed a modest increase in support for the proposition that government should do more.

Teixeira responded to the very next passage in GFR's article:

Between 1992 and 2004, for example, the percentage of people who said they agree that "the father of the family must be the master in his own house" increased ten points, from 42 to 52 percent, in the 2,500-person Environics survey. The percentage agreeing that "men are naturally superior to women" increased from 30 percent to 40 percent.
He cited the  American National Election Studies variable VCF0834--Equal Role for Women--which is measured on a 7-point scale , noting :
In 1992, 51 percent selected 1, the strongest support for women's equal role; in 2004, 57 percent selected 1. So support for women's equal role appears to be strengthening in the NES. Indeed, in the 2004 survey, a total of 78 percent of respondents picked 1, 2 or 3 on the 7 point scale, indicating they felt closer to the equal role statement that to the women's place in the home statement.

But at the same time we're supposed to believe that 40 percent now believe men are superior to women and that 52 percent believe the father should be the master of the house-increases of ten points in each case over the same period covered by the NES data?
Teixeira isn't arguing that the Nordhaus/Shellenberger data is useless. But he is arguing against placing too much weight on a single data set that doesn't jibe with other data. He says:
This illustrates the perils of relying on one survey for one's data about Americans' values-or anything else for that matter. Especially when that one survey is a consumer market research survey designed not for political research, but for very different purposes.
He then talks about why their approach is so appealing.  He touches on something else that's worth focusing on a bit more:
they cluster- and factor-analyze their data to death, showing in various "maps" how all these values relate to underlying value dimensions (survival vs. fulfillment; authority vs. individuality) both overall and for a multiplicity of different values-defined "constituencies of opportunity" for progressives. The result is many complex grids-some of them for groups whose sample size cannot be more than 25 or so in their data-with dozens of multicolored values sprinkled in different patterns on each grid.

Well, if you can't find something you agree with or find significant with this much to choose from, you're just not looking hard enough! And my sense is people do just that, hence the recent popularity of their analysis
There's another problem here: cluster- and factor-analysis are as much an art as a science, owing to the process of "normalization," in which underlying factors are identified. Sometimes you get results that are fairly indisputable.  There are one or two principle factors and everything else is fairly insignificant.  But when you are dealing with this many different factors--well, the likelihood is extremely high that the art/science ratio is quite high.  This means that you have both the presenters and the consumers" creatively" reading the data--data that's already shown to be inconsistent with other well-established social science data.

Nonetheless, Teixeira finds value in the article, particularly in passage he says "bears little, if any, relation that I can see to their analysis." I condense the passage thus:

The growing conflation of the economic and the cultural in the minds of voters has been a cause of great perplexity for thinkers who have long seen the two realms as distinct, and the cultural realm as the secondary concern of unserious men who don't know where their self-interest lies....

Yet the broader social reality suggests that the focus of these middle-income voters on cultural traditionalism is not entirely separate from their economic aspirations. Social solidarity and even simple familial stability have become part of the package of private privileges available to the well-to-do. Behavioral surveys consistently show that, regardless of their political leanings, the better-off and better-educated live more traditional personal lives: They are more likely to marry, far less likely to divorce, less likely to have children outside of marriage, and more likely to remarry when they do divorce than their less accomplished peers. In addition, their kids are more likely to be academically successful and go to college, repeating the cycle.

The new Puritanism and cultural conservatism Frank described can also been seen as symptoms of how, in today's society, traditional values have become aspirational. Lower-income individuals simply live in a much more disrupted society, with higher divorce rates, more single moms, more abortions, and more interpersonal and interfamily strife, than do the middle- and upper-middle class people they want to be like. It should come as no surprise that the politics of reaction is strongest where there is most to react to....

American voters have taken shelter under the various wings of conservative traditionalism because there has been no one on the Democratic side in recent years to defend traditional, sensible middle-class values against the onslaught of the new nihilistic, macho, libertarian lawlessness unleashed by an economy that pits every man against his fellows. Yet in private conversations, progressives recognize that there is a need to do something about broad social changes that they, too, find objectionable.
Now, it seems to me that there's a fair amount of truth in this.  But it's not really such a new or profound insight. Indeed, it only starts us in the direction one would want to go--which is back toward re-emphasizing the traditional Democratic Party concerns. What needs to be added here are a few missing insights that could help suggest something about how this task can be done--and what other obstacles we face.

Here I have 4 main thoughts:

(1) This takes us back to my hobby-horse of levels of cognition. Culture and economics have always been confused like this to some extent.  It's nothing new, really.  The same could have been said about their relationships a century ago, when the Settlement House Movement was in its heyday.  Since then, however, the New Deal made it perfectly clear that it's economic stability that drives social stability, not the other way around.  Give a young would-be hoodlum a steady job that leads to a family wage, and suddenly he's good marriage material, and his whole life changes.

Such options are much more limited now than they were 30-40 years ago, and all the bitching about gay marriage is a red-herring that has nothing to do with the causal forces at work. But those engulfed in sequential thinking are incapable of making or reckognizing sound causal arguments.  This doesn't mean they can't be reached, but they have to be reached in ways that appeal to them symbolically and narratively (narrative is a sequence of events, which can be followed even by those who don't fully grasp the logic--or notice gaps in logic).

(2) Narrative is as much the missing link as "values."  Indeed, narrative is precisely how you can most effectively express values while laying a foundation for policy.  How pioneers combined individualist and collective virtues, for example, is best expressed by telling stories about them, which then lays a foundation for policies that are collective in structure, and state-dependence, yet serve to promote individual initiative and responsibility.  (A similar message comes through in the movie It's A Wonderful Life, crystalized in the scene where our hero explains why he can't give money back immediately, because the money is at work helping others realize their dreams.) Good narratives, in turn, help people learn how to think causally.  They help people grow as thinkers as well as doers.

(3) Good narratives are unifying.  Consrvatives seek to unify on the basis of identity.  They do this by creating an us/them, self/other dynamic.  This is why they constantly need someone to demonize.  The marketing approach that seeks to ignore this--and hopes to reach people just based on a few targetted issues or lifestyle concerns or whatever--is an ostritch-like attempt to avoid the unavoidable.

The only possible effective response is a unifying narrative that is not based on conservative identity, or on a mirror image of conservative identity.  It must be an inclusive identity, one that has room for all.  This does not mean we have to drop our strong opposition to conservative politics.  But it does mean that our narratives and the identity they celebrate is defined in terms of how we struggle with ourselves, to be ourselves more fully.  (It's A Wonderful Life, again.)

(4) Heroic strength is vital.  Conservatives are weaklings and bullies.  It's no accident that their "war President" was a deserter.  It's the epitome of their own false bravado.   But the only way to beat them is to call their bluff.  Stand up to them, and don't back down.  Just to be clear: Heroic strength does not require anything macho or martial.  Elizabeth Bennet in Pride and Prejudice has heroic strength, for example.  She has the courage of her convictions--even more, she has the courage to challenge her convictions--her pride.

Likewise, Cindy Sheehan has heroic strength. George W. Bush does not.  He thinks it's a sign of weakness to question or challenge his convictions--when it's actually just a sign of how weak his convictions are.  We need to model and demonstrate heroic strength over and over and over again, for that is the principle way in which people will come to understand the difference between real heroic strength and the ludicrous caricature of it, which is all that conservatives have to offer.

I'm sure there's a lot more that could be said.

But that's why God invented comments.



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Re: More On Values/Data Bamboozlement And More (none / 0)

A extremely well written post. I truly enjoyed reading it, and some of the things made me think about what I have known about politics. But I am not quite sure about point #3. In fact, it seems a little counter-intuitive to me. I understand currently the GOP is running an extremely effective, bumper-sticker campaign. On the other hand, the Democrats are grappling with long, complicated, essay-like positions. (John Kerry comes to mind) And from what I know the American public prefer the bullet point style. Most Americans probably don't want to invest a lot of time in politics in their daily lives. Also, what works as public policies is not necessarily what is political popular. Perhaps the long answers to these questions are more accurate for the political advisors or even work better for the administrators, but it is not the same thing as to presenting them to the mass. If the goal is actually to win the support of public (like the Republicans aim to do), then shouldn't the Democrats model after their style of campaigning as well? I don't mean to be rude, I just want to get a point across and perhaps get a feedback. I truly like the article, as I said.


by darklywise on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 12:48:48 AM EST

Re: More On Values/Data Bamboozlement And More (none / 0)

....I understand currently the GOP is running an extremely effective, bumper-sticker campaign. On the other hand, the Democrats are grappling with long, complicated, essay-like positions. (John Kerry comes to mind) And from what I know the American public prefer the bullet point style.....If the goal is actually to win the support of public (like the Republicans aim to do), then shouldn't the Democrats model after their style of campaigning as well?

Our task may be more difficult, but we still have to actually do it. Some things can't be distilled down into bumper stickers. And as for effectiveness? John Kerry did get 56 million votes - something got through to those individuals.

There's an old union organizing saying: "You don't blame those who voted against organizing, you blame yourself because you didn't explain it to them well enough."

I'm not so certain that the republican method is the answer.


543,895 votes
by Michael Bersin on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 07:20:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Good Question, Let Me Explain... (none / 0)

By "narrative," I don't mean a long, rambling discussion.  I mean a story that makes sense of the world.  Narratives and bullet points have a synergistic relationship.  Bullet points are just the tip of the iceberg.  Narratives are the whole thing--and more. The whole life-cycle of the iceberg.

Here's an example--one that the Democrats, typically, ignored.

In May, 2004, Arianna Huffington wrote an op-ed, "John Kerry and Bobby Kennedy's unfinished mission: A bold narrative of hope would landslide over Bush's politics of fear." In it, she first explains the need for a narrative, its naturalness and logic:

There is no shortage of comparisons between our current military misadventures and Vietnam. But after watching "RFK," David Grubin's powerful new documentary on the life of Robert F. Kennedy set to air on PBS in October, I feel there is a more useful comparison -- not of the two wars but of two eras and two leaders....In the film, former Senator and RFK confidant Harris Wofford says that Kennedy told him that he was running for president "to save the soul of the country."

Kerry has already fueled his campaign with similar aspirations. "America is more than a piece of geography," he said in a speech earlier this month, "more than the name of a country. It is the most powerful idea in human history: freedom and equal opportunity for all... I am running for president to renew that idea and spirit again." ....

The problem is that Kerry is still only doling out his vision in drips and dribbles. He has not connected the dots with a bold narrative. He has not yet shown Americans how he will lead the country forward and fulfill the promise the Kennedys made to the nation.

The irony is that the Kerry narrative is one of the great narratives in the history of American politics -- a personal tale that links his life story to the history of our times, to his vision for the renewal of America.

The problem is that Kerry is still only doling out his vision in drips and dribbles. He has not connected the dots with a bold narrative. He has not yet shown Americans how he will lead the country forward and fulfill the promise the Kennedys made to the nation.

The irony is that the Kerry narrative is one of the great narratives in the history of American politics -- a personal tale that links his life story to the history of our times, to his vision for the renewal of America.
Then she lays it out:
Kerry's political narrative starts on June 5, 1968 -- the night Bobby Kennedy was assassinated: John Kerry is on board the USS Gridley, returning home from Vietnam. He carries with him a dog-eared copy of RFK's political manifesto "To Seek a Newer World." During the last month, Kerry has been using the ship's radio to follow Kennedy's remarkable campaign run. But when he tunes in to hear the results of the California primary, the crackling radio delivers the horrifying news that Bobby has been gunned down -- news that rocks Kerry to his core. "It was strange," he says, "coming home from a place of violence to a place of violence... a violence that shook our very sense of the order of things."

This was the beginning of his coming of age as a leader, which culminated three years later with his 1971 testimony before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. With the help of former RFK speechwriter Adam Walinsky, Kerry crafted a compelling, unflinching speech filled with all the moral clarity, fearlessness, and boldness our current times demand. "How do you ask a man to be the last man to die for a mistake?" memorably asked Lt. Kerry -- wrenching words just as applicable to today's Iraq as they were to Vietnam in '71.
Kerry's problem was not just that he failed to articulate such a narrative.  It was deeper than that--he failed to even recognize the need for narrative.

We don't just need to articulate narratives.  We need to come from a place of stories.  And frankly, for a party that draws so much support from Hollywood, it's utterly mind-boggling that we fail to understand this.

Bullet points, of course, correspond to those nuggets of dialogue that are memorable not just for what they say in themselves, but for how they encapsulate the movies and narratives they are embedded within.  They resonate, in large part, because they are deeply connected to a larger narrative--connected by the screenwriter, actors and audience alike.  And that is how bullet points and politial narratives need to be connected as well.


by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 09:45:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mydd and Kerry (none / 0)

If MyDD and Kerry can't find one good thing to say about Kerry and his move today, whats the point.

The republican method is to treat all of this as an advertising exercise, try to predict, using Television broadcasting type consumer models - what will play, and what won't and to pander.

But Kerry stands up here and really stands for something. MyDD seems to be ignoring him.

Why are they doing this Paul, you obviously seem to know whats going on... is it all about the data..?


by turnerbroadcasting on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 09:13:45 AM EST

Building the USA Up (none / 0)

Last night I was reading a study on growing income inequality in America (see epinet.org for the 66 pager, most of it tables).  Simplifying the study, over a period of more than 20 years from 1980 through 2003, Census Bureau statistics show that High income people have benefited far more from growth in our econony than the rest of the country.

The top 5% saw their incomes (adjusted for inflation) rise 84.7% to $201,707.  The top 20% also did well, growing 58.5% to $122,150.  But the middle 20% went up just 27.9% (to $46,875) and the bottom 20% increased only 16.9% to $16,780.

Aspirations or not, Reagan-Bush America has been bad for most Americans.  In fact, during the Clinton years when growth was highest, inequality grew more slowly.  During W's tenure, when evrybody lost (that's tight, every quintile and the top 5% as well saw real income shrink between 200 and 2004), inequality once more increased.

Jesse Jackson was obviously right, a rising tide lifts all boats.  So why was the campaign hinging on gay marriage and lies about Kerry's Vietnam service?  Well, maybe because if it hinged around what was really happening, Bush was toast.

Income inequality is growing fastest in that cornerstone of the Republicans, the Southeast (NY state, because of Wall Street is a sharp exception).  I just saw, for example, that 1700 American jobs will be lost in this region because Wal-Mart cancelled a contract with Russell Athletic (1,500 in Alabama and 200 in Georgia) on AL.com (that a site for Alabama newspapers).  When will these guys get it, that Roy Moore's 10 Commandments don't matter as much as Wal-Mart's One Commandment: Maximize profit by lowering costs using all means possible.

Well, enough of this screed.  This is more than politics.  It is fear and the only thing we have to fear is fear itself.  Do it!!
Aspirations, I call it wannabes" have it all wrong.  Class warfare is a recipe for loss.  Tonight we can once more be the greatest economic engine in the history of the world, but we can only do it together.  JFK realized it (Let's Get America Moving Again) on both slogan and in fact.  Ronald Reagan sort of realized it in slogan (Are you better off now than you were four years ago) but not in fact.  Clinton sort of realized it in slogan (It's the economy, stupid) and got it in fact.


by David Kowalski on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 12:49:29 PM EST

Re: Building the USA Up (none / 0)

Somehow the order of my last comment got scrambled.  The closing paragraph is the one about the screed.  The one about the economic engine and the movie paraphrase is next to last.

Weird.  Very weird.


by David Kowalski on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 12:58:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The GOP Is As Bad For The Economy As They Are (none / 0)

For The Military

But facts alone won't bring them down. When facts don't fit the narrative, the facts get rejected.  We have to give them a narrative to fit the facts into, or else we're just shouting into the wind.

The aspiration illusion has been around for a long, long time, albeit in different guises.  We need to give people something else in its place.  Not so much something that negates it, but something that outdoes it.


by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 09:22:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More On Values/Data Bamboozlement And More (none / 0)

Paul,

Yours is a fine analysis, but things are sometimes less complex than we make them. If Democrats merely told the truth about Republicans the GOP would get slaughtered. That unwillingness to be honest is a function of the corporatization of the Democratic Party. Democrats are currently fulfilling their assigned roles, which is to provide the illusion of democracy. They have just allowed two Federalist Society goons onto the high court without so much as a fight, which should finally verify to all coherent people that America has no opposition party. There are the fascists, and there are the enablers. Take your choice.


by georgewturd on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 05:52:05 PM EST

Yes and No... (none / 0)

It's not just as simple as merely telling the truth.  I really wish it were. Things would be so much simpler. But they're not.  Hence, what I'm arguing for here is how to do that effectively.

Please note that I am not talking about ways to evade taking a stand.  I am fully committed to the need for standing up.  I just want to see us win when we do.


by Paul Rosenberg on Fri Jan 27, 2006 at 09:49:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yes and No... (none / 0)

It is as simple as not telling the truth. Liberals will continue their lengthy retreat until they rear back and let fly with the harsh reality that conservatism is depraved. Clever packaging of a weak message is futile.


by georgewturd on Sun Jan 29, 2006 at 10:14:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]


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