Recent polling commissioned by her campaign shows some good news for Francine Busby, the Democratic candidate to replace Duke Cunningham in the House. Even though the district has not been too friendly to Democrats since Jim Bates lost the seat in 1990, this year's special election offers us what will likely be our best shot at taking it back.

I don't need to tell you about the troubles that led Cunningham to resign in disgrace. Possibly even more than DeLay, Blunt and Abramoff, Cunningham is the poster boy for the Republican culture of corruption. The fact that there are so many converging threads of corruption among the GOP is very bad for any Republican candidates for this seat. It's virtually impossible to portray Cunningham as an aberration. Any Republican running will be expected to answer for Cunningham's crimes.

In head-to-head match ups, Busby leads all six potential Republican candidates by up to 14%. In addition to voters' disgust with Cunningham and the Republicans, it's quite likely that Busby's name recognition in the district is giving her a leg up. This isn't a case of someone stepping in to take advantage of a scandal; representing the district is something Busby feels strongly about.

But it's not just Cunningham who is pushing voters to Busby -- President Bush also seems to be a factor. While 34% of district voters want a Representative who will support Bush, 43% prefer a Representative who will balance out the White House. And 53% of voters in the district -- no doubt informed by their first-hand experience with the Cunningham scandal -- think that the country is on the wrong track under Republican leadership. Granted, these are internals, but they seem to mirror national trends, so I'd tend to believe them.

About a month ago, Stuart Rothenberg examined the implications for a Busby win in a special election. Apparently, Rothenberg also listed CA-50 as one of the "Dangerous Dozen Open House Seats" that could pass into Democratic hands this year. The article is in the subscription only Roll Call, so I haven't read it, but I'm assuming he echoes many of these same points.

It's incredibly important for the Democrats to build some momentum heading into the midterms, especially since we know Rove & Co. are going to have their war machine running on all cylinders, accusing Democrats of all manner of evils. A Busby win would be a fantastic way to undercut their campaign and start building this momentum.