MyDD :: GOP House Retirement Watch: Bob Ney (OH-18)

GOP House Retirement Watch: Bob Ney (OH-18)

by Jonathan Singer, Fri Jan 13, 2006 at 08:28:41 PM EST

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There is a commonly held belief that the seeming paucity of open House seats this year makes it difficult, if not impossible, for the Democrats to retake the lower chamber of Congress this fall. Just today, Stu Rothenberg said as much in a post for the Political Wire, and Charlie Cook said essentially the same in his recent round up of the political climate.

As I noted back in November, it is quite a bit hasty to claim that there are not enough open seats. Currently, there are thirteen open GOP House seats, plus the vacancy left by the resignation of Randy "Duke" Cunningham. Among these are five retirements/resignations. As a comparison, at this point in the 1994 cycle, eleven House Democrats had either resigned or announced their retirements, with one more having announced a bid for governor. Yes, Republicans are currently defending more open seats today than the Democrats were at a comparable point in 1994. But this isn't all.

By the end of the 1994 cycle, seventeen more House Democrats would either retire or announce bids for higher office. Given the fact that more than 60 percent of the Democratic retirements during the 1994 cycle came after this point, it's not at all inconceivable that we will see quite a few more members of the House GOP caucus opt not to run in the near future.

There are a handful of House Republicans that we should watch for signs of retirement, no one more so than Ohio's Bob Ney. Already there are indeed signs that Ney, who has been named in two plea deals related to the corrupt lobbying practices of Jack Abramoff, might be getting ready to call it quits. For instance, take a look at this late breaking AP story by Andrew Taylor.

House Speaker Dennis Hastert is trying to force out Ohio Rep. Bob Ney as chairman of the House Administration Committee, a week after Justice Department documents linked Ney to a bribery scheme involving convicted lobbyist Jack Abramoff.

Ney's committee has jurisdiction over the Republican reform agenda in the wake of the Abramoff scandal, and Hastert believes it is inappropriate to let Ney run it, said a GOP leadership aide, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the negotiations between Ney and the speaker.

[...]

The aide said the speaker himself cannot fire Ney, and unless Ney steps aside it would be at least three weeks until the GOP caucus, on holiday break, could consider removing him.

Could Ney retire some time soon? His district is relatively competitive (President Bush only carried it with about 57 percent of the vote in 2004) and Charlie Cook has rated his seat as a "toss-up," so Ney's reelection would be far from a foregone conclusion. What's more, the Democrats already have a fairly able candidate in the district -- Chillicothe Mayor Joe Sulzer, who is also a Vietnam vet -- and progressive activist groups are currently running ads opposing Ney. Now, with the imminent (?) loss of his committee chairmanship and his potential legal woes related to his Abramoff connection, the possibility of a retirement announcement by Ney is real. The only question is whether the Democrats are better served with the wounded Ney running rather that a less tarnished Republican...

Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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Charlie Cook (none / 0)

"Sens. Conrad Burns in Montana, Jon Kyl in Arizona and Jim Talent in Missouri--appear to be even remotely vulnerable."

---Charlie Cook

"Even if Democrats managed to defeat Burns, they still would have to unseat either Kyl or Talent, a very real long shot at this point."

---Charlie Cook.

http://www.cookpolitical.com/overview/2006.php

It is Charlie Cook who is out of touch at this point...

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Montana%20Senator%20January%209.ht m

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/State%20Polls/January%202006/Missouri%20Senate%20January%202.ht m

by Boilermaker on Fri Jan 13, 2006 at 11:27:01 PM EST

Sulzer is a "Business as Usual" Democrat (none / 0)

Democratic candidate Jeff Woollard (OH-18) is the only democratic contender for Ney's seat that offers anything beyond the usual campaign rhetoric so typical in an election year. He is very busy advancing a campaign platform where new vision soars far beyond "business as usual" Washington politics.

Have a look.

http://www.friendsofjeffwoollard.com

Ohio will redeem itself in 2006!

Wow - a fiscally conservative Democrat!

Can you afford $1 buck to help unseat Congressman Ney?

by Fiscal Responsibility on Sat Jan 14, 2006 at 02:33:51 AM EST

OH-18 Ney (none / 0)

If you are a Democrat, you need to really hope that Bob Ney does NOT retire. While 95% of the time, an incumbent is easier to defend than an open seat, but there are exceptions to that rule (eg Dems are better off in Minnesota Senate open than if Mark Dayton were running for re-election).

If Democrats win this district in 2008, it is going to be because either Ney was so badly damaged he can't win, or he retires and the whole episode left a horrible taste in the mouths of 18th district voters that a Republican was at a real disadvantage. While this district used to be very Democratic, redistricting (Republican governor and state legislature) strengthened it for Republicans enormously.

Singer notes (in parens) that "President Bush only carried it with about 57 percent of the vote in 2004," that "ONLY" is a bit misleading. The general rule of thumb of a landslide is 55 percent. Ney's 18th district in Ohio is the 142nd most (out of 435), Republican district in the country in presidential voting, out of 204 Democrats in the House, only 14 represent districts that are this Republican, in presidential voting. This certainly doesnt mean that Democrats cannot win the seat if it is open, but it is difficult. Our experience has been that most of the action in the House, most turnovers occur in districts that don't lean to either party by more than three points, not six as this district does.

Don't get me wrong, this district should be a target for Democrats, but to say that it "only" voted for President Bush with 57 percent, fails to acknowledge that it is an uphill district.

by Charlie Cook on Sun Jan 15, 2006 at 01:13:00 PM EST

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