New Zealand Election: The left by a nose

Interim results in the New Zealand election:
Party    Vote %   Seats
Labour        40.74    50
National      39.63    49
NZ First        5.84     7
Green           5.07     6
Maori Party     1.98     4 (overhang)
United Future  2.72     3
ACT                1.52     2
Progressive    1.21     1

There are still 193,000 special votes to be counted, so there could be some change in these figures, but that's the broad sweep of things.

Labour has held its vote share and will probably retain power. The Greens and Progressives are already pledged to support them, and both NZ First and United have said they will negotiate first to support the largest party.  The exact shape of the government - whether it is an LPG or LUP coalition, or a Labour-Progressive minority government - will depend on negotiations, but Helen Clark has done what no other Labour leader has done: win herself a third term.  In the process, she's hopefully buried 90's neoliberalism for good.

Policywise, there's unlikely to be much substantive change, and certainly I can't see any change to our independent foreign policy.  New Zealand will continue to support multilateralism and oppose US unilateralism. The anti-nuclear legislation is also safe. The casualty is likely to be the prospect of further socially progressive legislation; we may not see progress of gay adoption or marijuana legalisation this term. "Right to die" legislation is probably still on the cards, though the question there is more about proper safeguards than underlying principles.

Despite his good showing, National party leader Don Brash is likely to be rolled within the year.  There's a good chance of a National Prime Minister in 2008, and at least three people who will be chasing that job.  He has said he will not retire from Parliament, but its unlikely there will be any place for him after a leadership change. The finance spot he previously held is firmly taken, and he's unlikely to be happy with a mere associates role. Which means he will probably go back to the kiwifruit farm, allowing a younger MP to take his place from the list.

Overall this is not a resounding victory for the left - but its not the defeat the right were hoping to inflict.

Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog


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What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

I have been following this election closely since it was called.  I am concerned not only by the western world's apparent shift to conservativism, (Australia, Blair's politcal survival, close calls in Norway and now Germany?) which are incomprehensible considering Bush's reputation, but also two other things.  

One is strategy.  Bush's stragety of an issue-free right-wing family values platform has proved successful.  The conservative Christian movement is recognized as having delivered the election for the conservatives in Australia.  The NZ election, which was addressing actual issues despite its obvious vote pandering, degraded to Rove-style attacks at the end: http://www.nzherald.co.nz/event/story.cfm?c_id=1500891&ObjectID=10345476

I am also concerned by how close all these elections are.  To have a squeaker in the US is a lot, but twice, and then in many other nations around the world?  Something is rotten in the state of Denmark, so to speak.  I dont trust all those "outstanding" votes in the NZ election.  I wouldnt be suprised if they turn the country over to Brash.  

by Winston Smith on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 02:16:51 AM EST

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

Oh, by the way.. Fuck Brash.
by Winston Smith on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 02:20:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

Tony Blair might not be a progressive's dream, but UK Labour Party beat the crap out of the much worse Tories. In Norway the Labour Party reclaimed power and kicked out the right wing coalition. In Germany much of the criticism against Schröder comes from the left, and CDU/CDS are not hard right but rather centrists. I don't see a conservative movement here.

NZ has always been more conservative than most European countries.

The history of the left is a history of purists betraying the progressive movement so that they can feel good about their righteous selves.
by Populism2008 on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 05:06:06 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

My disappointment with Britain is not that Blair won in a general election.  By seizing an extreme right-wing foreign policy he undermined a conservative agenda.  What I dont understand about Britain is why Labour didnt replace Blair like the Tories did to Thatcher in 1990.  I predicted in 2003 that Blair would be out of power within the year.  Do the majority of Labour MP's support Blair's Iraq policy?  I really dont get it.

As for the rest of the world, I am probably looking at this from an america-centric perspective, but I had assumed that the world would be so offended by Bush foreign policy that this would translate into support for progressive candidates in other countries.  I thought Spain was the first step, and within 3-4 years the western-european nations would be able to act as coherent blockade of Bush insanity.  Call me naive.

New Zealand always more conservative than other european nations?  NZ is generally seen as having abandoned the US during the cold war years of the 1980's when if formally banned US nuclear armed- or nuclear-powered ships from entering its territorial waters, and then declaring by law that the entire country would be a nuclear-free zone.  The US retaliated in 1986 by abandoning mutual defense treaties, and refusing the country free trade status.  This was a major issue in the past election.  I dont think any european country has done this.

Unlike most european countries, prostitution in NZ is not just decriminalized, it is legal and regulated.  To my understanding, enviromental protections are tighter in NZ, and social welfare programs are on-par with the EU (though NZ has less money)

by Winston Smith on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 04:26:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

NZ has always been more conservative than most European countries.

Date of full universal suffrage in NZ: 1893
Date of full universal suffrage in Sweden: 1921
Date of full universal suffrage in Britain: 1928
Date of full universal suffrage in France: 1944

Currently we're behind on gay marriage (we only have civil unions - marriage in all but name - combined with a normalisation of law which makes marriage legally meaningless anyway), ahead on prostitution, behind on the right to die (though I think that's coming soon), and up there on human rights issues (though the Ahmed Zaoui affair is a black mark on our record that it will take years to live down). We think religion in politics don't mix, and that politicians who mention god are loonies. And we look at Australia's racial and immigration policies with outright horror.

Economically, we had a neo-liberal Revolution in the 80's and 90's, but we're over that now.  No, we haven't changed the fundamentals it left us -  free trade and a fairly deregulated market - but we seem to have found a way to substantially ameliorate the social effects.  People could call this a "third way", but here that means good old fashioned social democracy under cover of the market - rather than the reverse.

Idiot/Savant
No Right Turn - New Zealand's liberal blog

by IdiotSavant on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 06:05:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

Sounds like paradise.. can you use a young doctor?
by Winston Smith on Mon Sep 19, 2005 at 01:37:56 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: What is wrong with the world? (none / 0)

Sure, but you'd probably be paid less than you would in the US.

There have been problems with recognising overseas medical qualifications as well, but I don't think that's an issue with US ones.  Though you might want to check up on it first.

by IdiotSavant on Mon Sep 19, 2005 at 08:22:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

my guess (none / 0)

is that the neocons are going after every important election on planet and trying to influence the outcome.

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 01:05:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

money (none / 0)

isn't money such a beautifully unifying force?

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 02:06:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

My letter to the editor, NZ Herald (none / 0)

September 14, 2005

Editor:

As a US citizen, I don't have a vested interested in the NZ general election, but I have appreciated reading coverage to see how democracy can work.  After the issue-free posturing and smear campaign of the 2004 US general election, it has been refreshing to see opposing politicians spending some of their time addressing issues and drawing lucid policies differences.  Then I read with concern about the orchestrated right-wing attack on Prime Minister Clark at Canterbury University.  What is apparent from the coverage in your paper, a well-organized group of ideologues decided that their public spectacle, designed solely to drown out political conversation and embarrass the opposition, was more important than allowing the public to hear a major foreign policy speech from the head of the government.  And after having taken over the event, they used their spotlight not to advocate opposing positions, but only to launch a vicious personal attack.  

I thought I was reading coverage of a US political campaign.  We will see shortly if Mr. Brash has the integrity to condemn this affront.  But a word of warning to the New Zealand electorate:  If these tactics succeed, they won't be merely a distraction from future political campaigns.  They will be the campaigns.

by Winston Smith on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 02:29:13 AM EST

Ah, beautiful New Zealand (none / 0)

I've got a few friends in the country, and am still planning on visiting some day, when my financial situation is such that I can afford a plane ticket. So I've been following the election pretty closely.

While I wouldn't breathe a sigh of relief yet-- negotiations with minor parties could break down, and "Prime Minister Brash" could still happen-- I think what Clark managed was wonderful. It would have been a landslide, I think, if she had managed to come up with a coherent tax policy to counter National's tax cut promises, but Labour still managed to win a plurality of votes and has a good shot at staying in power for a while.

However, for me, I'm a little concerned about the loss of power for minor parties. Through the MMP system, NZ has managed to have "third parties" play a real role in the government, and I think that's excellent; the more voices heard, the higher quality government. The Greens aren't spoilers, they're respected politicians (of course, if they want support from United Future, the Greens won't have any cabinet positions, so perhaps this time a vote for a Green candidate was a wasted vote...).

This election seemed so focused on National vs. Labour, though, that I wonder if maybe the trend is going back to the two-party system. Most of National's gains came from the minor parties, not from Labour. I think it'd be rather saddening if that trend continued.

Walberg Watch - Following Radical Conservative Rep. Tim Walberg in MI-07
by Fitzy on Sun Sep 18, 2005 at 10:16:56 AM EST


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