MyDD :: Dem Kaine gaining on Republican Kilgore

Dem Kaine gaining on Republican Kilgore

by Jerome Armstrong, Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 09:06:29 AM EST

Rasmussen's September polling shows the Kaine-Kilgore matchup in Virginia getting closer:

            Sept      Aug       July      June     April
  
Kilgore     43        45        47        46       44
Kaine       40        39        41        40       36
Potts        5         5         4         4        5

Likely Voters. MOE +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of 
confidence. 39% of survey respondents were Republican, 35% Democrat, 
and 26% unaffiliated.

Rasmussen says that "the survey was conducted Wednesday night, after people would have seen or heard a full day of news coverage on the debate." As you can see in the tally of Rasmussen's polling on this race over the past 5 months, Kilgore's went from leading by 8% to 6% to now 3%. Considering these are likely voters, it's odd to see the number of undecided voters move from 8% in July to 12% in September. But this was noted in the recent WaPost poll as well, where there's a good-size portion for each candidate (about 20% each) that could swing to vote for the other candidate.

What this trend point toward is that the trend favors Kaine. It appears that the more people get to see Kilgore, the less inclined they are to vote for him. Now Kaine has to get them to vote for him.

With Kilgore getting desperate, I expect him to shore up his support by bashing day laborers (nearly all latinos), along the lines of the polling:

Just 18% of voters believe that taxpayer dollars should be used to fund day laborer shelters that can be used by both legal immigrants and illegal aliens to assemble and find work. Seventy-one percent (71%) of voters oppose the funding of such shelters.

Kilgore is opposed to the day laborer shelters and Kaine calls that opposition "mean-spirited."

By an 88% to 8% margin, Virginia voters also say that illegal aliens should not be allowed to receive government benefits such as Medicaid.

Gods, Guns and Gays are not working for the Republicans, I guess Ken Mehlman will just have to take back his apology for the Republicans having a Southern Strategy that embraced segregation if Kilgore has his way. That, and have the feds take away the local counties authority of making their own safety laws regarding the congregating of people on the sides of highways, public spaces, and the front of 7/11's.

Tags: Governor 2005-6 (all tags)

Permalink :: 11 Comments :: Post a Comment

From VA? Want to help? (none / 0)

www.teamkaine.org

by ajacied on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 09:59:32 AM EST

Re: From VA? Want to help? (none / 0)

You don't need to be from VA to help. If you live in MD, WV, PA, DC, NC or TN close to the border you can work outside the polls on election day or go and canvas neighborhoods doing lit drops.

You can also send money to any of the 3 campaigns!

by sndeak on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 03:16:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polytheistic but not Kevin (none / 0)

I quote from this post:
"Gods, guns and gays"

Polytheism, Jerome?

A good man developed the southern strategy, which was a strategy that built off the Republican party's inability to turn their racial tolerance into electoral success. You will recall, the Republican party - was the party that liberated the slaves
and the Democrats, in the south, were staunch racists. People like Zell Miller openly supported segregation. The Democrats used their ability to block civil rights legislation throughout the era of civil disobedience, in the south.

The strategy that is being used now is to turn America into a fascist state. Race has nothing to do with it. Its about fascism, Jerome.

One god. God money.

by turnerbroadcasting on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 10:04:02 AM EST

Re: Polytheistic but not Kevin (none / 0)

Buschtler never had to work his way up from being a starving artist. He was heir to billions on the very day he was minted. He makes Hitler look heroic.

by blues on Sat Sep 17, 2005 at 07:40:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Where is Waner?? (none / 0)

Watching the clips of the debates on washingtonpost.com, and being surrounded by media coverage of them here in Arlington, I am amazed that Kaine is not crushing Kilgore. Kilgore sounds like a buffoon. Kaine has to hammer home: Kilgore wants to embark on the most expensive traffic plan ever while cutting your taxes more - he is lying somewhere in that. Kilgore is part of the Gilmore team that ruined Virginia's budget during a nation-wide time of economic boom. Warner and I restored it (he is hitting this hard, but not hard enough). Kilgore has publicly stated that he wants to outlaw abortion. 57% of Virginians want abortion to remain legal. Kilgore wants to suppress what the majority of Virginians want. I have heard tell that Warner is supporting Tim, but I don't see him anywhere.... I want to see Mark Warner stumping hard for Tim, especially in the parts of VA Mark won where Tim is less likely to be popular - SW Virginia, far out suburbs of NoVa and Richmond....

by daninvirginia on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 10:33:42 AM EST

Re: Where is Waner?? (none / 0)

Warner has been all over the state campaiging. He has been at events with all three of the candidates for the last few weeks. Now that Labor Day is here, people will start paying attention. Warner also said on his monthly call in show that he has given Tim $60,000 in contributions and will be seen with him regularly for the rest of the campaign.

Warner is in all of Tim's current TV ads as well.

by sndeak on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 03:09:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I note (none / 0)

that all but one percent of the increased Kaine voters came from the previous unsure/undecided column. This bodes well for us with 12% still in that category. If we can take 2/3 of that 12%, then we can win the race. Of course, we STILL have to make sure we GOTV better than the Reps. In the end, the race is won by the party with the most registered voters showing up at the polls.

BlueNC - Progressive NC Politics

by Robert P on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 10:43:47 AM EST

What Should Kaine Say About Day Laborers (none / 0)

I agree with Jerrome that this is where Kilgore will center his campaign. So how should Kaine react? Here are some ideas that I have:

Reframe the shelters issue from being one of "decency" to one of law and order. Kaine should oppose Kilgore's stand not because it is "indecent," but because it is unsafe to the general population. You want these laborers to congregate in one place; it is better, safer, for all concerned. In order to do that, you have to have some place for them to congregate.
Try to get some big business types to advertise the fact that day laborers promote economic growth. This advertising is not something the campaign should do itself. But it should encourage businesses that rely on this labor to publically declare its economic benefits.
The issue of day laborers should be used, quietly (using micro targeting techniques Jerome talked about last week), as a wedge issue separating the business groups that rely on day laborers from supporing Kilgore.
Register every breathing hispanic eligible to vote.

In short, the "push back" on this issue should be done in a way that strengthens Kaine's image for toughness and as a savy leader who knows how to promote economic growth.

Andy Katz

by Andy Katz on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 11:13:45 AM EST

Not Potts (none / 0)

Actually, your table aside, Rasmussen doesn't include Potts in their poll. They ask about Kaine, Kilgore, or "other."

In the last poll where Potts was included, he polled at 9%. My conclusion is that ~4% of voters know Potts by name. They don't know what he's running for, or who his opponents are, but they like him. By not naming him -- and the guy's on the ballot, so why not? -- in their poll, Rasmussen doesn't accurately present the percentage of the vote that he'll get.

This is particularly noteworthy because polling also shows that Republicans support Potts at a 2:1 margin over Democrats, meaning that he's siphoning votes off of Kilgore.

Take 4% of Kilgore's percentage here and give them to Potts. As you can see, that puts Kaine in the lead.

-Waldo Jaquith

by Waldo Jaquith on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 12:06:05 PM EST

Re: Not Potts (none / 0)

It's not clear. I know that was how Rasmussen was doing it prior to this month, but he has two numbers in this poll, and the second is where the "other" comes in. Didn't the WaPost give Potts name too in the poll? Anyway, Potts needs money and ads, if he's going to move.

by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 01:17:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

kilgore dropping (none / 0)

It doesn't seem like Kaine gaining so much as Kilgore dropping. Kaine seems to be holding steady around 40%, with Kilgore falling from 46-47% in June to 43% now.

Kaine has to start picking up some of these voters.

by hotshotxi on Fri Sep 16, 2005 at 12:44:21 PM EST

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