2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 RNC Base 189 176 183 165 150 DNC Base 183 171 134 142 109 Swing EVs 169 191 221 231 279 Swing #s 14 19 19 24 22(Notes: A "swing state" is here defined as a state whose final result came within 7% of the national popular vote. "Swing #s" refers to the number of swing states, while "Swing EVs" refer to the number of Electoral Votes in swing states).
In 1988, there were more swing electoral votes than there were "safe Rep" and "safe Dem" votes combined. Now, the total number of swing electoral votes is actually less than either the RNC or DNC base. The electoral battleground has actually decreased in size for six consecutive cycles. Considering current trends, it might not be long before New Hampshire, Michigan, Missouri and Oregon leave the swing state column as well. With the possible exceptions of Arizona, New Jersey and Washington, no states look poised to enter the swing column. If anything, most states that are already considered "safe" are becoming even more so.
Our current method, where the vast majority of resources are thrown into an ever shrinking number of states, is preposterous. No system would be perfect, but a lot of systems would be better than the electoral college.
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