The Shrinking Electoral Battleground

Over at Donkey Rising, there is currently a post up about the damage the Electoral College does to the democratic process, even if in the short term it might help Dems win the presidency. I agree, and I think that the Electoral College should be abolished. I have many reasons for this, but one line from a study on the subject really caught my eye:
The number of states where there is genuine competition has been steadily shrinking. In 1960, 24 states with a total of 327 electoral votes were battlegrounds. In 2004, only 13 states with 159 electoral votes were similarly competitive.
The swing states are indeed shrinking in size and number. Just how severe a problem this is can be found on the Partisan Index page here at MyDD:
	    2004    2000    1996    1992    1988
RNC Base     189     176     183     165     150
DNC Base     183     171     134     142     109
Swing EVs    169     191     221     231     279
Swing #s      14      19      19      24      22
(Notes: A "swing state" is here defined as a state whose final result came within 7% of the national popular vote. "Swing #s" refers to the number of swing states, while "Swing EVs" refer to the number of Electoral Votes in swing states).

In 1988, there were more swing electoral votes than there were "safe Rep" and "safe Dem" votes combined. Now, the total number of swing electoral votes is actually less than either the RNC or DNC base. The electoral battleground has actually decreased in size for six consecutive cycles. Considering current trends, it might not be long before New Hampshire, Michigan, Missouri and Oregon leave the swing state column as well. With the possible exceptions of Arizona, New Jersey and Washington, no states look poised to enter the swing column. If anything, most states that are already considered "safe" are becoming even more so.

Our current method, where the vast majority of resources are thrown into an ever shrinking number of states, is preposterous. No system would be perfect, but a lot of systems would be better than the electoral college.



Display:


Michigan (none / 0)

Go look at the polling at surveyusa.com.  Michigan isn't really a swing state anymore.  It's strong blue now and will be getting much bluer.  More concerning is that this is beginning to resemble the polarity we had in 1860-61.
by roamer65 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 07:43:03 PM EST

Re: Michigan (none / 0)

Of course... that polarity of 1860-1861.  Who could ever forget that?
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:27:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In fact... (none / 0)

The electorate wasn't that polarized.  There were 4 candidates who received electoral college votes.
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:33:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In fact... (none / 0)

Lincoln won the electoral college and failed to get a single vote in something like 7 southern states.  He was still easily the top vote getter.  Douglas didn't draw to well in the south either and Breckinridge was pretty much of a southern only candidate.

What mattered wasn't the number of candidates but how the votes were distributed.  One of the tell tale signs of that era, BTW, was the emergence of northern and southern branches of many churches.  

by David Kowalski on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 03:40:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

The EC (3.00 / 1)

You talk about how the EC reduces the size of the Electorate, but a popular vote will do the same thing.  Campaigns only have so much money and they will spend it in the largest media markets.  If you live outside a small town, you wont see a single add, the canidates wont come your way either.  

Ahy, maybe its a boone for those who hate campaign commericals... EC or no EC some of the electorate will not be in play.

by JamesOrtmann on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 07:48:38 PM EST

Re: The EC (none / 0)

Considering the thousands of commericals I saw in Philly last year, I think it could stand to be spread around a little more.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:02:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The EC (none / 0)

If you live outside a small town, you wont see a single add, the canidates wont come your way either.

This is true now, unless you happen to live in a state such as Iowa, Ohio, or Wisconsin.

The EC only really benefits people in the industrial midwest. Almost everyone else gets screwed.

My vote should count just as much as much as a vote in Ohio or Wisconsin.

by Otto on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:04:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The EC (none / 0)

I live in northern New Jersey part of a metro area of 19 million people.  In 2004 we were solely an ATM machine.  The Republicans did run IIRC three ads, the dems none.  The primary, such as it was, was held in June.  The state's big thrill was a quick Dick Cheney appearance in suburban Philly just on the jersey side.

With 600 million bucks being spent little or nothing was spent on 2/3 of the country.  As was pointed out. the number of swing states keeps shrinking so more and more is spent on less and less.

by David Kowalski on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 03:36:19 AM EST
[ Parent ]

In 2004 (none / 0)

Kerry was much closer to the presidency using the electoral college than the popular vote. 100,000 votes in Ohio vs 3,500,000 votes nationally. So either system can bite you in the ass.

Poetic justice would have been for Kerry to win EC and lose the PV in a repeat of 2000.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:02:23 PM EST

Re: In 2004 (none / 0)

Exactly -- either system can bite you in the ass.  So I say keep the Electoral College.  It's entertaining.  Kind of like playing a game of poker instead of a game of "war".  Plus it gives us Ohioans a reason to feel special every four years.

by Fah Q on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:17:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nah (none / 0)

I hate it.  I live in California, so my vote is completely worthless (along with everybody else in 35-40 states).  It's not the United States of Florida, Ohio, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Nevada!
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:28:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Nah (none / 0)

My vote was one of the 300 that decided 2000 in FL in contested Volusia county. It still didn't mean anything thanks to the SCOTUS.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:36:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Yeah, but... (none / 0)

... it give us Oklahomas a reason to feel unimportant all the time.

Oh wait... occasionally we have a contested Republican primary, so I could register Repug so that I could vote for the LESS crazy of the two, sometimes.

I hate the electoral college.  Ever since I got the details in Poli Sci class, I have thought, "Wow, what a fucking stupid-ass system for us.  Sounded nice on paper, when there weren't any parties, but as a a component of a party system, this is pretty retarded"

But to me, it's the single-member districts we gotta get rid of in the House.  And we neeed IRV.  And to get rid if the EC.  And full public financing w/ guaranteed media access.

So... where was I going with this??

by teknofyl on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:29:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, but... (none / 0)

Independents can vote in GOP primaries in some states. Good opportunity to help sabotage their primaries.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:37:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Independents? (none / 0)

Son, I live in OKLAHOMA.

We have two parties here.

Republican's of the Tom Colburn flavor and Republicans of the Brad Carson flavor.  I can pick any one I choose, sometimes.

The wierd thing is, our governor is a Democrat and he's not a closet Repug.  WTF?  Is it that hard to vote for a Democrat at the top of the ticket?  Oh wait... Gore 2000 and Kerry 2004... I forgot... it WAS hard to vote for them.

And what's the deal with sucking less AFTER the election?  Hello!  The elction was in November, but you grow a pair in like, February.  I don't really like Hillary all that much, but at least she can swing pipe with the big boys!

by teknofyl on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:57:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Independents? (none / 0)

The buyers' remorse I'm seeing from the public now 9 months after the election pisses me off.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:57:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh gawd, yes! (none / 0)

I still don't get the 'logic' that leads to a vote for GW.

Like the war wasn't going shittily, and the economy wasn't tanking, and he wasn't a total right-wing nutjob 9 months ago!

Well, at least I feel better that you live in Florida and feel shut out too!

by teknofyl on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 11:00:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Oh gawd, yes! (none / 0)

I don't feel shut out -- they kiss our ass more than Ohio. I just think I live in a state full of morons.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 01:45:21 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah, but... (none / 0)

This is exactly the point.  Currently there is no reason for the Democrats to spend money in OK.  If the Democrats could turn a 70-30 Republican state into a 55-45 Republican state, it currently gains the Democrats precisely squat.  But get rid of the EC and it can be usefull.  It also gives the Republicans a reason to "run up the score"- currently the Republicans have no incentive to turn that 70-30 state into a 75-25 or 80-20 state, as it doesn't gain them anything either.  In this system, it would.
by bhurtaw on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:32:03 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow. (none / 0)

Wow... That is an amazingly original name.  Where did you ever think of something that original?  That is the funniest thing I've ever seen in my entire life.  "Fah Q" is like... "Fuck you" only not really.  That's truly amazing.
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:35:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: In 2004 (none / 0)

I hate the EC.  It takes my vote and gives it to the Repugnants.  My vote does not count. I am disenfranchised AND I have to listen to all that Repug crap on the TV.  It is simply UNFAIR!!
by OHDem on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 09:32:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Drop out of the Electoral College (none / 0)

   If we are all US Americans, then our votes should all have equal value. One person, one vote. Under the EC that is so far from the reality that it is ridiculous. There are fewer and fewer swing states, and any minority party voter in a solid state might as well not bother voting for President. A Dem in Utah, A GOPer in DC- forget about it. This has got to supress voter turnout which impacts downballot races. The other thing that burns me up about the EC is the way the votes are distributed (one for each House district and two for a state's Senators). This means that if you live in Cheneyland (WY) you have one electoral vote for every 200,000 or fewer citizens. In my home state we have 55 electoral votes for 36 million which comes out to about one EV for every 650,000 voters. With the US Senate already the least representative legislative body this side of the House of Lords, why should we be screwed on the presidential vote as well? (Believe me, there are times I think we should bring back the Bear Flag Republic and say goodbye to the USA--but that's another story.) If there were only one ministate it would be one thing, but there are 7 with only one House district and a few others with only two or three. Somewhere I read that Gore would have won in 2000 if the EVs were given out by House district with none for Senate seats (even allowing FL to Bush). The question isn't whether the EC is bad but how can we get rid of it short of a revolution. The process for amending the Constitution is very difficult, requiring such large majorities that the small states have a veto. Yikes! If more small states were like VT, or if DC had Senators I might not complain as hard, but whenever I look at the Senators, Reps and EVs from place like Alaska, Wyoming and Idaho I wanna scream. My hometown has more voters than all three combined...
by Zack from the SFV on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:38:05 PM EST

Re: Drop out of the Electoral College (none / 0)

The correct system, which I think Maine and Nebraska have adopted, would be to make every electoral vote by congressional district and then to give two more votes to whichever candidate wins the state. Therefore, in my state of Illinois, if John Kerry won 11 of the 19 districts, he would get 13 electoral votes and Bush would get 8. Spin it whichever way you like, but its certainly more logial and more fair than the current ridiculous system.
By making the electoral votes based on district, there would be a huge amount of swing districts and it would also encouage everyone to vote. Right now if you're a Reep in NY or a Dem in Tex, you dont count. If your district was a moderate district (and I also think redistricting should be done by an independent panel), then everyone would be motivated to vote. It just makes too much goddamn sense not to do. Yeah it'd be a pain to calculate in polls and such, but who really cares?   It is, quite easily, a better way to represent the voting public.
by AC4508 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:58:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Bad Idea (none / 0)

I was about to post the argument that the electoral college for picking Presidents is far less of a concern than the gerrymandering of our Congressional Districts.  Talk about disenfranchisement and undermining democracy.

A much smaller percentage of Congressional districts is competitive than states in the EC.  It's awful.  It explains why Congressmen of both parties are so rabidly partisan and nasty.  Their base is solid. Their incumbency assures them easy re-elections.

There was a New Yorker article on this a year or two ago that really floored me.  I wish I had a link to it.

by freedc on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:21:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Drop out of the Electoral College (none / 0)

I do not want to see republicans gaining EC votes from states like CA and NY. It would not make up for the ones dems gain in TX.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:39:09 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Drop out of the Electoral College (none / 0)

If the congressional districts were fairly drawn by independent panels, there would tons of close race when it came to votng for the President. And as for this new system of junking the electoral college and making the votes district based- it doesnt matter that it would cost the Dems 10 electoral votes. What matters is that its the right thing to do and the most accurat representation of democracy.
by AC4508 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 10:56:17 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Drop out of the Electoral College (none / 0)

Nah, it matters to me if more people like Bush get elected in a popular vote system.

Democracy can be overrated -- Bush is finding that out right now in Iraq. It can bite you in the ass.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 08:49:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Dems' base growing faster (none / 0)

Whatever the effect of the Electoral College, it is stunning that the Republican base has grown by 30 EVs since 1988 and the Dem base has grown by 72 EVs.  Whereas the Rs had a plus 41 margin in 1988, they now have only plus 6.

Without having read the article, I suppose that is partly because states like CA that are now comfortably blue have grown in size and EVs, but then so have Texas and FL.  The more R midwest and mountain states have shrunk, but so has NY.

Many people have observed that while many conservative states are growing in population, the people coming in are often liberal, and don't necessarily leave their politics at home. AZ and NV come to mind, as both have gained some people that CA has lost, while CA gained largely from immigration from outside the US in the last census period.

Given the large Dem base, it would make sense not only to contest the swing states, but to poach the Red states that are gaining the most population.  

by Mimikatz on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 08:43:37 PM EST

The massive ad buys on TV are bad ROI (none / 0)

the ROI of these ad buys on TV are much less
than 1. They are not pulling their own weight.
What you want to do is look at this from the perspective of where the voters actually are.

Most voters are isolated. This goes fist in glove
with most neighborhoods being torn up by TV and exurban-type planning that isolates them geographically (they have to use their car to go meet other people) and by gate. So you end up with
nobody knowing anybody else, this is important - because it helps TV viewership - thats why its there. For now.

But TV viewership has been on rapid decline. 18-24 yr old demographic sees a reduction in TV viewing almost 20%. 16-18's are down almost 35% , and watch on average 2 hours less TV now than they did just a few short years ago.

So you're talking about a party that focusses on lining the pockets of a few media buyers in these states. Its no wonder that they want the bargain bin (ie, two states here, one there) = they're not getting their money's worth.

The electoral college has little to do with this,
its sort of match play versus lowest score. Often lowest score will win. But to win a match, you have to get the lowest score.

You see, what is defined as a 'swing' state is often very much not swinging at all... the parties are really out there selling this idea that only a few are in play because thats all they want to try to saturate. Its not working.

The party can simply adopt a stance that all states are in play, texas, whatever.

by turnerbroadcasting on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:10:26 PM EST

Thank goodness for the Electoral College (none / 0)

Be careful what you wish for. The EC may seem like a terrible system, but it is better than any of the alternatives.

Popular Vote - Imagine in 2000 we had had a PV system. The recount? ALL the votes. Everywhere. This type of system encourages fraud. Imagine, all they would have to do is "create" more GOP votes in Utah, Idaho, Mississippi, Ect and no one would challange them.

Distric EC voting - We have so few contested congressional districts because of gerrymandering, this would only make it worse.

The effect of third parties - The EC forces a result even when less than 50% vote in anyone state. In 1992 Ross Perot got a lot of votes, but no EC votes. This is one of the best reasons to have an EC, since single issue groups can't win a state. Make any changes, and we end up with minority governments like Italy is famous for. Like it or not, the EC favors those that can build broad co-alitions.

The real key to elections is getting an honest count. At least the EC brings the focus down to just a few swing states. I see that as an advantage.

A President in a league of his own, the Bush League!
by Tuba Les on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:21:37 PM EST

Not me. (none / 0)

I guess I'd just like to cast a presidential vote that actually mattered a single iota just ONCE.  But that won;t happen, because I live in BFE Oklahoma, where we ALWAYS vote Republican, because GOD SAYS SO.

So... just from a personal perspective, nothings strategic... I hate the EC, because it robs me of my vote for the motherfucker that's gonna be in my living room and bedroom every fucking day.  And the fucker who will be making life/death, war/peace, at that kind of shit.

but fuck it, right?  It doesn't matter.  It's just the president, right?  I should be used to this by now by way of our stoopid rate of incumbency and the enormous cost to contest any national office.  What's one more ass-reaming by the system.  I should buy stock in K.Y. Jelly, man.

by teknofyl on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:39:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

PV does not ecourage fraud (none / 0)

Quite the contrary.  With the electoral college, you have fifty elections, and the outcome may rest on one close one.  The chances of the national popular vote being close enough to fudge is minimal.  Al Gore lost Florida by 537 votes but won the popular vote by a thousand times that many.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:51:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PV does not ecourage fraud (none / 0)

EC: 27 / 538 = 5%
PV: 500,000 / 105,500,000 = .47%

When you look at the significance of those votes in their respective equations you can see that the popular vote was statistically 10x closer than the electoral vote though.

You can't really compare the two systems' votes as weighing the same for winning the presidency. 500,000 votes is extremely close in presidential election. One issue's news in one day could swing that margin.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 11:08:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: PV does not ecourage fraud (none / 0)

Not to mention that there is no incentive to game the popular votes in non-swing states... nothing to gain. In a popular vote count, then Florida and Ohio type shenanigans would be the order of the day.
A President in a league of his own, the Bush League!
by Tuba Les on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 01:45:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Please (none / 0)

Does anyone seriously believe that a direct election is any more prone to fraud than the electoral college?  If they do, why haven't they tried to stop, say, California from directly electing a governor?  Or return Georgia to its old vote-by-county system?  It's not like those are small affairs, after all.  Yet a popular vote works well enough for them.
by Drew on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 05:21:20 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A direct national election (none / 0)

greatly increases the number of counties where vote fraud can alter the outcome of an election. Rather than poring over the results in Florida and Ohio, say, watchers would have to sift through each and every county result from Alabama to Wyoming for discrepancies. Any two-bit county official in the country could be trying to throw the election to one side or the other, and all the effects would be cumulative.

That makes it more prone to fraud, yes.

Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 02:13:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

popular vote n/t (none / 0)


by raginillinoian on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:53:17 PM EST

The fact that there are fewer swing states... (none / 0)

...shows how polarized the nation is.  It's almost Civil War Part Duex.  The "shift" is nearly complete, with the western coastal states, New England, Hawaii, and Illinois being safe Democratic states, the south, central plains, non-coastal western states, Indiana, and Alaska being safe Republican states, with the only ones in contention being Florida, the northern midwest, and the rust belt states.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:57:36 PM EST

Electoral college is best (none / 0)

I read an interesting article in Discover Magazine about why the electoral college is the best.  A link to it is here (but you need to be a Discover mag subscriber to read all of it).  Key graphs:

*
A well-designed electoral system might include obstacles to thwart an overbearing majority. But direct, national voting has none. Under raw voting, a candidate has every incentive to woo only the largest bloc-- say, Serbs in Yugoslavia. If a Serb party wins national power, minorities have no prospect of throwing them out; 49 percent will never beat 51 percent. Knowing this, the majority can do as it pleases (lacking other effective checks and balances). But in a districted election, no one becomes president without winning a large number of districts, or "states"- -say, two of the following three: Serbia, Bosnia, and Croatia. Candidates thus have an incentive to campaign for non-Serb votes in at least some of those states and to tone down extreme positions--in short, to make elections less risky events for the losers. The result, as George Wallace used to say, may often be a race without "a dime's worth of difference" between two main candidates, which he viewed as a weakness but others view as a strength of our system.

The founding fathers were not experts on voting power. Many wanted an electoral college simply because they distrusted the mob. A large electorate, they believed, falls prey to passions, rumors, and "tumult." Electors were supposed to consider each candidate's merits more judiciously, not blindly follow the popular will. Nowadays, of course, whoever wins the popular vote in any state wins all the electoral votes in that state automatically (except in Maine, which divides its electoral votes). We no longer need human bodies to cast electoral ballots, Natapoff says. That part of the system is indeed archaic. But it has worked beautifully, he insists, as a formula for converting one large national contest into 51 smaller elections in which individual voters have more clout. The Madisonian system, by requiring candidates to win states on the way to winning the nation, has forced majorities to win the consent of minorities, checked the violence of factions, and held the country together. "We have stumbled onto something that not everyone appreciates," Natapoff says. "People should understand it before they decide to change it."
*
**

The article then goes on to describe, using mathematics, why you vote is MORE IMPORTANT in the electoral college system.  This is a great article, worth a subscription to Discover all by itself.

by estamm on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 09:57:41 PM EST

My vote is worthless (none / 0)

I live in California.  My vote is worthless in the EC, because it is not a swing state.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:14:19 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My vote is worthless (none / 0)

I'm from California too, living in Illinois right now. Both blue states. In other words, the only way I have ANY impact is to give lots of money to campaigns.
by raginillinoian on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:21:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I've read that article. (none / 0)

And it's bullshit, too, if not because I'm not entirely pursuaded by the definition of "influence" employed, then because it completely ignores the reality of the electoral college in the United States: it isn't a division of the United States into interest groups, it's a division of the United States into states, which are wholly defined by area.  And as Republicans have shown over the past forty years, it is quite possible to win a majority of areas by appealing to one, and only one, interest group.  

You can guess which.

by Drew on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 05:33:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

A Republic (none / 0)

If we can keep it.  The electoral college is one of the last vestiges of our republican (small r) form of government.  The Democratic party feels that it is unable to compete nationally so it decides to change the rules so that the large masses on both coasts may again prevail in national elections.  This is wrong thinking IMO, we need to work to find the issues that will sway the voters nationawide.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:04:57 PM EST

Wishing we could change the rules... (none / 0)

...and actually doing so are quite different.  Even though it sucks, the EC is here to stay.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:15:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

First, the EC is bad for Democrats.  All the dinky rural states, mostly heavily Republican, have a disproportionate number of electoral votes relative to their population:  Wyoming, Alaska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Montana, Utah, Idaho, Nebraska, etc.

As an example, Minnesota currently has 10 EV, but only [roughly] eight times the population (as measured by Congressional Districts) as Wyoming.   Yet instead of 1/8 the EV of Minnesota, Wyoming has 3EV.

I don't see the system changing because neither the small states per se nor the Republicans are going to accommodate any change which dilutes their power.  It would take a constitutional amendment to make a change and, even supposing you got it through both houses of Congress, it would take only 12 state legislatures not ratifying it to block it.

by InigoMontoya on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:38:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

And don't forget that red states vote republican by greater margins than blue states vote democrat. That's why Bush won by 3.5 mil votes in 2004. He won the red states by greater margins than Kerry won the blue ones.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 11:10:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

we don't get wiped out in the smallest states as much as we do in the medium-sized ones.

small states: R 44 - D 25
D - VT (3), DC (3), DE (3), HI (4), ME (4), NH (4), RI (4),
R - MT (3), WY (3), ND (3), SD (3), AK (3), ID (4), NV (5), NE (5), UT (5), WV (5), NM (5),

medium states: R 153 - D 99
D - CT (7), OR (7) MD (10), WI (10), MN (10), WA (11), MA (12), NJ (15), MI (17)
R - KS (6), AR (6), MS (6), OK (7), IA (7), KY (8), CO (9), AL (9), LA (9), AZ (10), MO (11), TN (11), IN (11), VA (13), NC (15), GA (15)

big states: D 128 - R 81
D - PA (21), IL (21), NY (31) CA (55)
R - OH (20) FL (27), TX (34)

by wu ming on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 11:33:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

The task is to figure out how to appeal to voters in Wyoming, Alaska, South Dakota, Montana, etc.

This yields far greater gains because it gives you Senators, Congressmen, Governors, and other State and Local offices.

The GOP has done a superb job selling their party to suburban and rural voters. This in spite of supporting policies that go against their intrests (esp those of rural voters).

Figure out a way to change that and the Repubicans will be the minority party again.

by ces on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 03:07:07 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

As long as the population of those states tends to be disproportionately evangelical Christian, narrowly nationalistic wrapped-in-the-flag with respect to the military, pro-gun, anti-gay, and dubious about both uppity women and minorities and rights/opportunities pertaining thereto, it's going to be a slog.

These folks will largely vote against their economic interests in favor of their cultural tendencies.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 03:14:53 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

These folks will largely vote against their economic interests in favor of their cultural tendencies

Well, it may seem we are voting against our economic interests from your point of view, but as for myself, I would like to believe I voted for my culural ideals and my economic wellbeing.

OK, I gotta go now. It's time to wrap myself in the flag and read my Bible while caressing my .44 - then later, I'm gonna figure out how to keep the next poor, gay, black woman down. Should be quite a night!

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 07:22:51 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

When you voted Republican you implicitly consented to the Administration's conduct of the Iraq War (including torture), their theocratic stances on controlling morality, their corporate pork, their flag-wrapping nationalism, and their bigotry against gays.

If those are your ideals then you are voting for the right party.

Have a good day.

by Curt Matlock on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:27:01 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

Well, I suppose my proper response would be to enumerate what it means from my standpoint to vote for a Democrat, but the only thing that would accomplish would be to start a flame war. Since that is not why I read and post here, I won't do that.

I suppose I could also list the current administration's policies with which I disagree (yeah, imagine that - I don't toe the party line on every issue; likewise, I would imagine a lot of Dems feel the same way about their party's platform) but I don't know what that would accomplish either, seeing as you seem to think we are all just mindless robots.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:50:02 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Mindless Robots (none / 0)

Nah. Voters for Bush in the last election were generally not mindless and certainly not robots. Just misinformed and often, deceived.

Thanks for your polite trolling.

by Curt Matlock on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:02:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Misinformed and Deceived (none / 0)

Nah. Voters for Bush in the last election were generally not mindless and certainly not robots. Just misinformed and often, deceived.

But only this last time around, right? 'Cause otherwise, it would mean I have been misinformed and deceived for like (hmmm, how many elections have I voted in?) uh, a long time now, and that would like, suck!

But hey, there's hope for me, right? After all, I am reading this fine blog here, so I won't be misinformed next time around, that's for sure!

:-)

Thanks for your polite trolling.

You're welcome.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 04:23:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Misinformed and Deceived (1.00 / 0)

Don't take it personally. Curt prefers troll rating people on his own side like me. Notice that lots of these guys despise moderate independents more than you republicans. That's why you republicans often have an edge in national elections.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 08:54:18 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Misinformed and Deceived (1.00 / 0)

Such a jerk!

You've acted like a troll probably a hundred times that I've come across. Frankly, I just looked up the last time I gave you a troll-rating and I wasn't alone. 5 other people rated you a one on that one.

Is your only purpose to cause trouble? Seriously. Stop being such a jerk.

As far as RepTroll is concerned, I'd rather see his name in a thread than yours because he makes an effort to disagree with respect. You on the other hand are perfectly willing to derail any thread to stroke your ego. That's why I have yet to rate the Republican RepTroll down but am always willing to lay a one on you.

by Curt Matlock on Thu Aug 11, 2005 at 10:23:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Misinformed and Deceived (1.00 / 0)

Thanks for the personal attack. I expect no less from you. I hope you don't mind I hold you to your own standards. Good day.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Thu Aug 11, 2005 at 02:09:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Misinformed and Deceived (1.00 / 0)

You butted in and called me out by name in a thread line in which I was talking to someone else.

You are out of line.

You have become a troll.

Pathetic.

by Curt Matlock on Thu Aug 11, 2005 at 02:13:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: EC Bad for Dems, unlikely to change (none / 0)

There is more truth in advertising in your screen name than in virtually anything put out by this adminstration.   Bush could say the sun was rising in the East and I'd want it verified by three independent teams with compasses.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:53:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Republic (none / 0)

In a broad definition a republic is a state or country in which sovereignty is invested in the people. Most commonly such principle beyond the control of the state's citizens is a hereditary principle, and in this sense a republic is the opposite of a monarchy. Thus the term republicanism is often used to describe any movement that is opposed to monarchies.

nowhere in this statement is there anything that suggests that breaking the country into a confederacy, as the EC does, and running 50 separate elections in a way that thwarts the popular vote is the slightest bit republican, save for the fact that the EC was part of the original constitution. germany is a republic, and it has federal elections. nearly every single democracy in the world which does not have a monarch is a republic.

this is simple-minded misreading of the name of your political party as the cover for the fact that you do not respect the principle of democracy, and are willing to deny urban coastal americans the vote if it threatens your grip on power. bush would have won in '04 had we gone by the popular vote; the opposition to the EC is not merely a strategic one, and as chris says, it will not necessarily always benefit the democratic party. the fact that it is so intuitive for you to fall into antidemocratic rhetoric is telling.

get thee to a polisci class.

by wu ming on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 10:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Republic (none / 0)

wow, that was an overreaction. apologies. i'm just sick of hearing the "we're a republic, not a democracy" drivel from trolls on other boards. please disregard.
by wu ming on Tue Aug 09, 2005 at 11:36:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Republic (none / 0)

Republic vs democracy is a pointless argument. We're a republic out of necessity because a true democracy is not logistically possible on this scale. This isn't 2000 B.C. Athens.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 01:48:39 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: A Republic (none / 0)

a pointless argument, but not for the reasons you mention. there is no conflict between republic and democracy, other than as names for parties. a democracy is a government ruled in some way by the will of the people. a republic is a state without a monarch and/or with a constitution.

we live in a democratic republic. england is democratic, but not a republic because of the queen. north korea is a republic (although it could be argued that kim jong-il's succession makes it more of a de facto monarchy), but is not democratic. iran is an islamic republic that is somewhat democratic. most governments are republics of some kind, and many of them are democratic.

you are confusing "representative democracy" with "republic."

by wu ming on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 02:38:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Make EC not Winner Takes All (none / 0)

In the Republican primary for president and in Maine for the vote for president the delegates are not winner takes all. They go percentage of votes you get. If a state has 4 EC votes and you get 75% of the votes you get 3 EC votes and the other canidate gets 1. This way it solves the problem of just using the popular vote and canidates just spending money it most populated areas.

This was national news the last Nov. Because on the Colorado ballot was this proposal. The voters turned it down. If poll numnbers were good for Bush or Kerry they did not want the issue to pass. If numbers where not good, they wanted it to pass so that they pick up some electorate votes.

by zacilor on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:27:59 AM EST

Re: Make EC not Winner Takes All (none / 0)

I don't like that proposal because it opens too many electoral rich blue states to the GOP. Meanwhile the dems would gain little in the electoral poor states where the GOP wins by greater margins.
http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 01:50:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Make EC not Winner Takes All (none / 0)

Right, the GOP takes the small-CD states like Wyoming, North Dakota, Utah, etc., and automatically gets the bonus two at-large EV's.

There aren't as many Dem or toss-up small states:  Hawaii, Delaware, Vermont, Maine, maybe New Hampshire on a good year.  West of the Mississippi through the Rockies sees a lot of Red territory.  Yeah, we can pick off New Mexico, Colorado, and maybe Montana but we can't count on it.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 02:20:04 AM EST
[ Parent ]

It doesn't solve the problem. (none / 0)

And it's disappointing that EDM even suggests the idea, because it's a really stupid one.  (Thus the name of the anti-amendment forces in Colorado.)

One of the flaws of the electoral college is that it gives small states a greater share of power than their share of population.  That doesn't change when you split the vote proportionally between the candidate; Maine still has proportionally greater power than California.  As such, for example, even if this system had been in place in 2000, Gore still would have lost, because of the disproportionate power of the small states, and Bush's success among them.

by Drew on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 05:42:14 AM EST
[ Parent ]

getting rid of EC witout an amendment (none / 0)

Some have said that a constitutional amendment is needed to get rid of the EC.  Not quite.  Suppose California's legislature passes a law with two provisions:

  1. All of California's electoral votes go to the winner of the national popular vote.

  2. This goes into effect only when identical provisions have been put into effect in states with a total of 270 EV.

Then the winner of the popular vote is guaranteed election.
by feynman on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:41:52 AM EST

Re: getting rid of EC witout an amendment (none / 0)

What you're describing is best know as the "Amar Plan." I think it's very interesting.

However, when I discussed the plan in a front-page post at Kos, there was a LOT of misunderstanding and general resistance to the idea. ("Why should California give its electoral votes to someone it didn't vote for?" is a very frequent response.)

Considering that the audience for that post was one of the most politically sophisticated you are likely to find, I don't have much hope for presenting the Amar Plan to the general public. Maybe a brilliant sales pitch could do it, but I strongly doubt it.

by DavidNYC on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:52:15 AM EST
[ Parent ]

"ONE" problem with our Democracy is... (none / 0)

that Elections are made so that only a handfull of states are worth going to it just annoys me that it just seems like the Solid Red/Blue states have no reason to vote and it is left up to Rednecks/old people in FL but i am glad my vote matters cause i'm From FL like i said in my last 50 comments but anyway it just annoys me that peoples votes in NY,CA,UT,WY etc. don't matter. There is another way to fix it however the problem with this is it still keeps campain in 12 states. Take 2 EV away from every state those are the "senate's electoral votes" they over represent the small states and make the EC Lean Republican (Gore would have won if the 2 senate delegate where gone from every state.)
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 01:09:26 AM EST

Not so easy... (none / 0)

'Course, it isn't so easy to implement this idea; it would still require a Constitutional Amendment. Article II, Section 1 says, in part:

"Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress"

So, it is entirely up to each state to decide how to allocate electors (that's why it's not winner take all in Maine and Nebraska) but the Constitution still dictates how the number of electors is calculated. To get rid of the 2 "Senate" electors would require an amendment. And that is very unlikely to happen for all the reasons already outlined within this thread.

"Don't get stuck on stupid" - Lt. Gen. Honore
by RepTroll on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 06:56:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

I Don't expect it to go through but.. (none / 0)

if you wanna fix the EV that's how you do it.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 04:19:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Waste of time and energy (none / 0)

The REAL reason we will never change the EC is because of the power it gives to the large and small states. One California with 55 votes is more important than all the 3 and 4 vote states with a few 5 vote states thrown in.

So large states want to be the big prize, and small states want the extra 2 senate votes.

The EC is here to stay. We would be better off figuring out how to win more states. Going after all 50 states in Congress would be a good start.

A President in a league of his own, the Bush League!
by Tuba Les on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 03:05:26 AM EST

Re: Waste of time and energy (none / 0)

   Sure, the likelihood of changing the EC is small and so it is a waste of time. I agree with you there. Where you are wrong is in thinking that it is of benefit to large states. As I pointed out upthread, my state has one EV per every 650,000 voters while Cheneyland has one EV for less than 200,000 voters. The only advantage of the EC for me is that there were almost no presidential campaign ads on the air in CA, which was a relief. Of course that left more airtime for those deceptive ads on the ballot measures!
by Zack from the SFV on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 09:53:40 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Changed Once (none / 0)

Following the close election of 1796, the democrats faced a partisan government that limited personal freedoms, called its opponents traitors and tried to tie them to anti-church sentiments.  Jefferson looked at the votes and realized that a few hundred votes in one locale could make him President so he made a deal with the one politico most able to get him those votes: Aaron Burr.

After the confusion of that election, the electoral system was changed by making the electoral votes count for a ticket of president and vice president.  Of course then most states actually had electors rather than voters.  Seems like they should have gone direct to the voters.

by David Kowalski on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 04:01:26 AM EST

One question, Chris (none / 0)

Would you say the same words about electoral college if Kerry would narrowly win Ohio?
by smmsmm on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 09:12:58 AM EST

Re: One question, Chris (none / 0)

i would becuse if Kerry won without majority support but EC support would'nt be right same with Bush it's just common sense the Electoral Colledge wasn't made very well at all heh history repeats itself and no one learns... look at Tilden and Hayes same thing happened  than with Tilden not to say he was like Gore he was very Conservative but even so he deserved to win becuse Majority of Voters supported him same with Gore and i always thought the Jackson Adams race should have gone to A Runoff with just them anyone who wins with 50.1% to a 100% of voters wins period (come to think of it there should have had runoff in 2000 as well becuse neither candidate broke 50% that would have been the better way to do it at least in the states that didn't break 50 for either.)
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 04:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

In short, the Electoral college isn't the problem (none / 0)

I think Chris is focussing on a different issue - which is what is the role of so called 'swing'
constituencies and how those apparently vanishing
breed seem to be harming things.

ex. if you believe you're in california, and your
vote doesn't count etc.  well it does, anywhere.
EC isn't the issue at all.

by turnerbroadcasting on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 12:02:42 PM EST


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