MyDD :: TN-Sen: Kurita's Web Campaign Makes An Impact

There was a long stretch of time when I didn't think there was any question that Harold Ford, Jr. would be the 2006 Democratic candidate for the Senate seat being vacated by Bill Frist. Ford has cultivated something of a national profile over his tenure in the House, even prompting a fair bit of pre-Obama "First Black President" speculation. In 2000, Ford was the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention. One year later, People put him on their list of "The 50 Most Beautiful People in the World". He was even so bold to challenge both Nancy Pelosi and Martin Frost for the role of House Minority Leader in 2002 at the age of 32.

But now all of that has changed. Ford is being challenged for the nomination by State Senator Rosalind Kurita. Kurita's made news in the blogosphere recently by launching an extensive online ad campaign, running national blog ads here at MyDD, Daily Kos, Eschaton, Talking Points Memo, Raw Story, Wonkette, and the Tennessee-based Instapundit, more localized ads on the Tennessee political blogs of Bill Hobbs and Sharon Cobb, and also on the websites for the newspapers The Tennessean, The Memphis Commercial Appeal, and The Knoxville News-Sentinel. The ads, which I'm sure you're at least subconsciously familiar with, implore Tennessee voters to "Replace this Republican Doctor...with this Democratic Nurse" over alternating pictures of Frist and Kurita, a Registered Nurse.

There seem to be two parallel strategies at work behind Kurita's internet-focused ad campaign. One, while it's technically true that whoever wins the 2006 Senate race will be replacing Frist, the ads suggest that he is Kurita's opponent. However, Frist is stepping down from his seat due to a self-imposed term-limit. Wisely, she's trying to take advantage of netroots disgust with Frist to raise some much-needed funds. Two, these ads aren't just running at progressive sites. They're running at the Tennessee newspaper sites and the conservative blogs Instapundit and BillHobbs.com. Kurita knows that to beat the nationally recognized Ford, she needs to raise her profile. Already she's seeing that strategy pay dividends, with mentions in The Blogometer, The Chattanoogan, and -- if I may be so meta -- here at MyDD.

So just how likely is it that Kurita could mount an upset in the race for the nomination? Judging by some poll numbers released by her campaign, it's a real possibility. In an "informed ballot" poll her campaign commissioned on the race, Kurita beats Ford among likely Democratic primary voters 44% to 39%. However, as a few other bloggers have pointed out, Kurita did not release the numbers of a "non-informed ballot" poll. Due to Ford's much higher name recognition, it's quite likely that he blew her out of the water in that one. To its credit, the Kurita campaign did offer voters "positive information about the records of the candidates" in the informed ballot poll. Here are the candidate descriptions, courtesy the Republican Blogging for Bryant:

Rosalind Kurita is a 57 year old state senator from Middle TN. She is married with three children, including an adopted child. A registered nurse, she supports providing in-home health care for senior citizens. She has voted against the income tax and the increase in the sales tax and opposes privatizing social security. She supports veterans and military personnel, and has worked to end the practice of cutting benefits for soldiers going into combat.
. . .
Harold Ford, Jr. is a 34 year old Rep. from Memphis. He has a law degree and is not married and has no children. He pushed to make college tuition affordable for students and to encourage national and community service. He says he is a centrist Dem working to replace partisan politics with fresh ideas and a pragmatic approach to the challenges of the twenty first century.

It's a pretty obvious push poll, but it has to be assumed that most Tennessee Democrats are already going to have developed an informed opinion of Ford, rendering the poll's description of him something of a moot point. When voters have some awareness of and information about Kurita, they seem to like what they hear. And that's exactly the point of her blog ad blitz -- raising awareness.

The same poll indicated that it would be a tight race between Kurita and GOP candidate Bob Corker, the Mayor of Chattanooga. Corker only has a 1 point advantage, beating Kurita 38% to 37%. Some GOP bloggers have criticised Kurita's inclusion of only Corker in the poll, claiming that he isn't the most likely GOP nominee. However, it's hard to argue that point when Corker's raised over $3.3 million. His competitors, Van Hilleary and Ed Bryant have raised $715,562 and $414,908 respectively. (It should be noted here that Kurita's dead last in terms of fundraising among the Senate candidates with only $256,925.)

I would also suggest that many Tennessee Democrats may be looking for any viable alternative to Ford. A column by Jackson Baker in The Memphis Flyer last month detailed the loss of David Cocke, the Ford-backed candidate for Chairman of the Shelby County Democratic Party, to Matt Kuhn, the candidate supported by a coalition made up of DFA-affiliated Democracy for Memphis, Mid-South Democrats in Action, and supporters of Memphis Mayor Willie Herenton. Baker cites as one reason Cocke lost "[d]issatisfaction with Ford's increasingly conservative voting record and rightward-tilting campaign strategy."

A more recent Baker column notes that Kuhn all but endorsed Ford for Senate at a breakfast event Ford hosted. Kuhn has since apologized, stating that he "cannot and will not endorse any Democratic candidate for elected office unless and until that candidate is the sole Democratic candidate for the position." Still, how much of an backlash can Kuhn's election be considered when Kuhn is out in public singing the praises of Ford?

Fair or not, there may also be some unease with Ford's chances in the general election because of his very name. The Tennessean ran an interesting, two-part story recently on the Tennessee dynasty that is the Ford family. In part, one of the questions the series dealt with was the impact of State Senator John Ford's indictment in a bribery scandal on Harold Ford Jr., his nephew.

To voters outside the Bluff City, the name Ford can drive away support. It is linked in the minds of many Tennessee voters with controversy and criminal allegations. Three Fords, including John, have been indicted on federal charges, though only one, Emmitt Ford, has been convicted.
. . .
Memphis civil rights lawyer Richard Fields predicts that Harold Jr. will have trouble outside of his hometown.

"I think in Middle and East Tennessee, he's dead in the water," said Fields, who generally supports the Ford family even though he opposed John in the 2002 state Senate primary.

"The Ford name will always come out as John," Fields said. Harold Jr. "has not been involved in any of this. It will just rub off on him."

The race is probably still Ford's to lose, but I would not be surprised to see Kurita start putting up some serious numbers. Her embracing of a netroots campaign, coupled with her outspoken positions on issues like the bankruptcy and energy bills could make her an attractive alternative to the "centrist" Ford, who supported both. This race is certainly worthy of some serious attention.