MyDD :: Hurricane Strength and Global Warming

Hurricane Strength and Global Warming

by Scott Shields, Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 12:12:08 AM EST

Just to follow up on Chris's earlier Hurricane Katrina-related post, I feel it's important to point to some information about the relationship between hurricane strength and global warming.

But first, let me use my bully pulpit to suggest that if you have a few bucks to spare right now, the Red Cross is going to need some serious assistance over the coming days and weeks, if not months. If you're in the area and are able to help in the expected relief efforts, they have a page set up for volunteers. Otherwise, you can always click here to donate.

Okay. With that out of the way, let's move to the topic at hand. Over at dKos, DarkSyde has a diary up that links to some information from the National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration about the relationship between global warming and hurricane strength. There's a lot of scientific data at the site which gets a bit difficult to get your head around, but here's the takeaway message:

Although we cannot say at present whether more or fewer hurricane will occur in the future with global warming, the hurricanes that do occur near the end of the 21st century are expected to be stronger and have significantly more intense rainfall than under present day climate conditions. This expectation (Figure 1) is based on an anticipated enhancement of energy available to the storms due to higher tropical sea surface temperatures.
. . .
According to this latest study, an 80 year build-up of atmospheric CO2 at 1%/yr (compounded) leads to roughly a one-half category increase in potential hurricane intensity on the Saffir-Simpson scale and an 18% increase in precipitation near the hurricane core. A 1%/yr CO2 increase is an idealized scenario of future climate forcing.

If that's still to techy for you, it all boils down to the fact that global warming as a result of increased carbon dioxide emissions will increase both the strength of and precipitation from hurricanes over the next eighty years.

Before there's any conclusion-jumping, I'm not accusing President Bush of causing Hurricane Katrina -- that would be ridiculous. But what's important here is that, beyond the points that Chris made about the ways that some of Bush's policies might hamper hurricane relief efforts, Bush's stubborn refusal to take global climate change seriously could have vast consequences in real peoples' lives for decades to come.

While the NOAA reports cited above talk about the consequences of increased atmospheric carbon dioxide almost a century from now, it's not as if humankind is just starting to release carbon dioxide into the atmosphere now. A bit of digging at Wikipedia backs that up:

Since the start of the Industrial Revolution, the atmospheric CO2 concentration has increased by approximately 110 µL/L or about 40%, most of it released since 1945. Monthly measurements taken at Mauna Loa [2] since 1959 show an increase from 316 µL/L in that year to 376 µL/L in 2003, an overall increase of 60 µL/L during the 44-year history of the measurements. Burning fossil fuels such as coal and petroleum is the leading cause of increased man-made CO2; deforestation the second major cause.

Is the almost unprecedented strength of Katrina a product of the last century of increased man-made carbon dioxide emissions? I really don't know. But logic tells me that such a conclusion makes sense.

Moving forward, we should always remember the far-reaching, real-world consequences of man-made climate change, especially when formulating progressive environmental policies. But right now, it's time to pray for the people of the Gulf Coast.

Tags: Misc (all tags)

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Damn right (none / 0)

We don't talk environemnt mcuh here at MyDD, but this is about as clear cut a case there is as to how global warming can damage all of our lives.

Still, expect the mortally offended republican crowd, after politicizing everything from underwear to Acts of God (and acts of God relating to underwear, to come in here and be shocked, shocked, that would dare politicize an Act of God.

by Chris Bowers on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 12:29:16 AM EST

Tropical diseases, parasites, mold, etc. moving N. (none / 0)

Its something to think about, as these diseases are probably major factors that have historically made the more temperate countries more productive and healthy places to live than the tropics..

Tropical diseases kill..

Also, with many Americans lacking access to affordable health care, when they do get sick, the impact of these diseases, toxins, etc. fall disproportionately on the poor..

Also, toxic molds, and their mycotoxins, in particular may effect a lot more people's lives than we realize.. People who live in 'low cost' housing.. (of course, if there are permanent effects to their health, it isn't low cost at all..)

Some molds are neurotoxic, among other things..

Something to consider..

Warmer temperatures mean more problems.. all around..

by ultraworld on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 01:07:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Tropical diseases, parasites, mold, etc. movin (none / 0)

mold isn't an environmental factor you can talk about on a national scale. Although I agree the science is good, you're probably going to catch cancer before you die of mold.

what I'd look for instead, on this line, are the little beetle bugs that the frost couldn't put a hurt on in the winter time. pine beetles and other tree munching pests could quickly tip the planet into mega-trouble.

And yes, you'd better know how to use a gun if it does. Don't get abstract with me now, you're talking world upheaval if the carbon sinks reverse - it all shuts down and you shoot your way out.

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:13:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Damn right (none / 0)

Er. Who doesn't talk about the environment? Any libertarian democrat puts this on the top of his list of things to do. Its just a pure numbers play , save gas, avert the big insurance bills - keep your florida real estate. Please read my post from two days ago in response to your post about 'progressives'. Look for the item that says "#1".

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:16:25 AM EST
[ Parent ]

My Mixed Message. (none / 0)

I'm mixing messages about how the neocon poicy games have set people up to be hurt by this disaster with stuff about the evolving tragedy.

Right about now, at 11:10PM on AP we have

"The center's latest computer simulations indicate that by Tuesday, vast swaths of New Orleans could be under water up to 30 feet deep. In the French Quarter, the water could reach 20 feet, easily submerging the district's iconic cast-iron balconies and bars.

Estimates predict that 60 percent to 80 percent of the city's houses will be destroyed by wind. With the flood damage, most of the people who live in and around New Orleans could be homeless.

'We're talking about in essence having - in the continental United States - having a refugee camp of a million people," van Heerden said.'"

It looks really bad, right now.

by blues on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 12:42:45 AM EST

Re: My Mixed Message. (none / 0)

This van Heerden has been pumping out the one-liners all weekend. Here was another, which I call my "morbid quote of the day":

So, imagine you're the poor person who decides not to evacuate: Your house will disintegrate around you. The best you'll be able to do is hang on to a light pole, and while you're hanging on, the fire ants from all the mounds -- of which there is two per yard on average -- will clamber up that same pole. And, eventually, the fire ants will win.

At night, the ice weasels come.

Any other circumstances and I'd say he's a wack job who loves colorful quotes. Yet, tragically, he may be just about right.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 01:40:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Mixed Message. (none / 0)

no he's wrong. I've lived through nearly 5 of these things. One cat 5. the ants get washed away.

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:09:52 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Mixed Message. (none / 0)

Uh, yeah, I suspect he was speaking figuratively. I doubt he literally means the ants will emerge from the flood and attack people clinging to light poles. As I said, he seems to like colorful quotes.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:59:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: My Mixed Message. (none / 0)

probably 100,000 will be out of a home. Death count should be less than 100.

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:10:43 AM EST
[ Parent ]

wetlands (3.00 / 0)

There's an another important environmental issue particular to the location of this storm in the New Orleans area.

Wetlands act like huge sponges. They have the capability of soaking up storm surges.

E.g., Jack Caldwell, Sec., LA Dept of Natural Resources:

Every 2.7 miles of wetlands absorb one foot of storm surge, which creates a natural buffer zone

The catastrophic damage, if it occurs tomorrow, will be primarily from the storm surge. The New Orleans area alone lost 135 square miles of wetlands from 1956 to 1990; much more if surrouding coastal areas are added in.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 12:57:17 AM EST

Re: wetlands (none / 0)

No, The wetlands regenerate from this type of natural disaster, and relatively quickly. Probably less than 10 years and she's straight again.

There is no buffer zone around new orleans, other than the levees. The slope of the underwater topography will cause the waves to break out beyond the levee, but the force of this hurricane has a 20% chance of breaking the levees somewhere. Thats what New Orleans faces right now.

So lets do some real math: The levees have about 5 feet of play in them now. The waves are over the top of the levee but not hitting full force yet.
Typical storm surge is 15 feet of tide. I've seen it myself, for this type of storm. Normally they go 10 but this one will go 15.

I would say that NO has about a 50 50 chance of losing about half her real estate. Probably a 70% chance of losing a third.

Please, don't sit on your ass in response to this one. Turn the TV off. All that wetlands loss was development.

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:24:50 AM EST
[ Parent ]

huh? (none / 0)

Yes, that wetlands loss was development. That's precisely my point. What is yours?

Wetlands loss - due to development (and other human activities) - reduces the ability of the coastline to withstand the storm surge.

by arenwin on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 08:55:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

last i saw was... (none / 0)

Status: Cat. 5 winds 160 mph, 909 MB moving WNW at 10 mph. i got to say this is about the worst case scenario that could happen to LA. this will likely be even worse than Andrew you got the Cat. 5 power but with Lakes rivers and ocean around the Major Metro areas of New Orleans this is not good at all. Also there is some word it could go back to 175 or weaken to around 145 kinda up in the air.

Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.

by Liberal on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 01:12:29 AM EST

Re: last i saw was... (none / 0)

she'll get weak as she shoals up onto the delta. its ocean warmth she feeds on, she's feeding on the water. I would guess she'd drop down and probably likely try to head up the missisippi.

Hey you know these things love the warmth of water and choke away on land, it would be cool if she could find a way to track up that river.

Cat 4 on landfall is my prediction. Cat 5 would be pushing it, the levees had better hold.

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:08:54 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Pass the ammunition (none / 0)

Prayer is always effective - it sets you into the world properly as a child of god.

But now is the time for science, not prayer. The storm is making landfall as a Cat 4, she will wreak havoc on your gas prices. Fuel up before they catch on.

Expect very few casualties, 10,000 people stayed. The underwater topography near new orleans builds up slowly, bad for a tsunami - good for a hurricane. The waves won't build up strong against the levee.

As for property damage, its all about the US Army Corps of Engineers right now. The levee has to hold, most of New Orleans is right at the water line. Expect alot of damage, I'd not want to be on the actuarial side of the house right. Uncle Buffy played his money smart.

The comments about Bush are kind of irrelevant, he's in the pocket of the saudis and they want us to consume more oil and crash planes into our cities. I'd offer that the recent initiative to have the cities adopt the Kyoto protocols is a huge way to get all of this straightened out; push it in your hometown.

The Hurricanes feed off a particularly warm stretch of ocean off the cape near the tropic line west of africa. they spawn in the doldrums and spin up along the gulf stream, feeding on warmth.

I've personally studied them for nearly 20 years and never once seen a storm reverse course in mid-ocean. This year, the first storm to hit our country in July in seventy years.

The only way to deal with a corrupt administration is to stop feeding its constituents (like Karl Rove, who thrives every day on badmouthing the prez) and its supporters (like the oil companies) - and especially in science, to be local in your scope - do something in your own neighborhood.

Try GreenRide

http://www.greenride.com

by turnerbroadcasting on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:05:03 AM EST

Re: Pass the ammunition (none / 0)

Still, Bush's grand statements about an energy bill and a new day for Americans is suffocated by high gas prices. Apparently the damage is bad enough already that we could have shortages if not the highest prices ever after adjusting for inflation.

Just as in environmental science they tell you that systems can absorb some abuse for a while, and then reach a catastrophic "tipping point"...this is the political "tipping point" for Bush on lots of levels because the thrist for petroleum causes so many of our policy problems.

by risenmessiah on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 03:05:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just to simplify the science a bit more... (none / 0)

It's very basic thermodynamics - global warming is increasing the amount of thermal energy in the world & it's thermal energy that feeds storms. More energy, bigger, badder storms.

by Joe in Wynnewood PA on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 02:15:32 PM EST

my prayers (none / 0)

The cities affected by the storm are in my thoughts and prayers

The Kentucky Democrat

by kydem on Mon Aug 29, 2005 at 05:14:29 PM EST

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