One of the key misunderstandings of the 1994 Republican take-over of Congress is that it has not been reversed. Certainly, Republicans have maintained control of the House for the entirety for the past decade, as they have maintained control of the Senate for all but eighteen months during that same time period. However, the regional complexion of the Republican takeover has changed dramatically during the past ten years, and the pillars that support the Republican majority in Congress have changed frequently. In other words, the Republican coalition that took over Congress in 1994 is significantly different from the Republican coalition that currently controls Congress. Certain elements of the Republican takeover have indeed been reversed, while others have strengthened dramatically.

For example, looking at the composition of the Senate since 1988, it is possible to identify at least four distinct periods of regional party coalitions, including three periods since 1994. The following table looks at party control of the Senate both within the eleven states of the old Confederacy, and the thirty-nine states outside of it (numbers reflect Senate balance at the end of each session):

       78 non-southern seats   22 southern seats
Congress     D	   R		    D	  R
101st	    40	  38		  15	 7
102nd	    42	  36		  15	 7

103rd	    44	  34		  12	10

104th	    38	  40		   9	13
105th	    38	  40		   7	15
106th	    37	  41		   9	13

107th	    42	  36		   9	13
108th	    40	  38		   9	13

109th	    41	  37		   4	18

From 1989-1992, the wide Democratic majority in the Senate was held together through a narrow majority outside of the eleven states that once formed the Confederacy, and a wide supermajority within those eleven states. In the 103rd Congress, Democrats were able to offset significant losses in the south with noticeable gains outside of the south, where they formed a wide 44-34 majority.

The first three Congresses following the 1994 Republican takeover featured a Republican coalition held together by a narrow non-southern majority and somewhat less narrow southern majority. However, the 2000 election witnessed a reversal of the non-southern portion of the 1994 takeover, as Democrats were able to restore their non-southern majority to its pre-1994 level. While that did not change in either the 2002 or 2004 elections, Republicans were able to restore their Senate majority to its 1995-2000 level by completing their long takeover of the conservative south.

Thus, taking the long view of the Republican takeover, the entire shift in the balance of power in the Senate has occurred within the eleven states that once formed the Confederacy. While the balance of power in non-southern seats remains essentially the same as it was from 1986-1994, the Republican takeover, which originally had a real national flavor, can now be understood as entirely a southern revolution. This can even been seen as we look to 2006, as six of the seven seats most ripe for Democratic takeover--Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio and Rhode Island--are outside of the old south. If Democrats were to engage in a wide sweep in 2006, it would effectively be a full-fledged "non-southern revolution," as Republicans would retain a stranglehold over the twenty-two southern seats.

Taking a very long view, such a non-southern sweep would not, in and of itself, be enough in order for Democrats to once again become the natural governing party of the Senate. As long as the two coalitions remain primarily ideological, I have a difficult time believing that Democrats will ever again achieve parity, much less majority control, within the most conservative area of the nation. However, it will be necessary for Democrats to regain the minority, but competitive, stance that they held from the 104th -108th Congresses. Combined with a non-southern revolution, being able to pull between seven and nine seats in the south would be enough for Democrats to become the natural governing party again.

Either way, realizing that the Republican revolution of 1994, which was national in character, has been reduced to a southern Republican revolution by 2005, gives us a better understanding of the current political situation, and serves as a starting point for envisioning a Democratic breakthrough on the magnitude of 1994.

          Non-South     South

Congress   D     R      D    R

103       181   128    77   48

109       153   149    49   82