Harris Shows Bush at 40%

Oh, so close:
President Bush's job approval ratings are at their lowest point of his presidency as only 40% of U.S. adults have a favorable opinion of his job performance and 58% have a negative opinion, according to a Harris Interactive poll.

This is a decline from just two months ago in June when the president's ratings were 45% positive and 55% negative. Much of this decline can be tied to the public's opinion on important issues. The war in Iraq has climbed to the top of a list of issues Americans say it's most important for the U.S. to address and the economy is now viewed as the second most important issue, according to the poll.

The poll has a lot of interesting information, including a decade-long trendline of the "most important issues" as viewed by the electorate. Usefully, the poll does not prompt those questioned with a list of issues, and instead allows them to offer up their own two issues without cue.

Right now, "the war" towers above all other issues, with a whopping 41% of the public placing it in their top two. That is the equal of the next four issues--the economy, health care, social security, and gas / oil prices--combined. War has been among the top two issues for more than a year now.

One of the most striking trends among these issues is the complete collapse of "crime" as an important issue since 1994. In February of 1994, the year of the Republican takeover, 36% of the electorate cited crime as one of the two most important issues for the government to address. However, it began a slow decline from that point, hovering in the teens for a few years, before dropping into single digits in the two years before 9/11. Post-9/11, it disappeared from the national radar entirely, never again passing 3%. At exactly the same time as "crime" disappeared, "terrorism" appeared, first cheeking in at 22%. Those most concerned with terrorism seem to have also been those who, pre-9/11, were most concerned with crime. Fear was a top product of the right, and it's wide market helped to fuel the battle of civilizations well before the nineteen murderers ever learned how to fly.

However, the tide is shifting. Right now, fewer people than ever cite a generalized concern with "terrorism" as one of their main priorities. Since the days immediately following 9/11, terrorism has eroded as a major national issue, hitting 7% in October, and hovering between 4%-7% ever since. No wonder the administration recently sought to change the name of the "War on terror." People have finally begun to break from the neoconservative view of Iraq as part of a broader struggle against something or other, and instead now view it as its own entity. We don't need to tell Bush and his minions that the war on terrorism is over--they already know that.

Iraq has been separated from the "war on terror" in the mind of the public. Further, Iraq is beginning to crowd out the "war on terror" in the public's mind almost entirely. Without a focus on some sort of frightening, generalized "Other," the battle of civilizations is waning. Unsurprisingly Bush's numbers are simultaneously collapsing. We win when that battle is not being fought. Bush is not going to turn these numbers around easily.



Display:


Its wearing off (none / 0)

Bush's whole 9/11 hero aura is finally wearing off.  It was almost gone in November, but not quite.  By next November it will be almost entirely gone, and the 2008 GOP candidate will not have it (Guiliani will not be the nominee).
Max Friedman
by Max Friedman on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 12:22:49 PM EST

congressional dems (none / 0)

what should we make of the fact that the congressional Dems get the same (or slightly worse) approval/disapproval ratings than congressional Repubs?

is it "a pox on both their houses"?  or does it mean that it's an opportunity for the first group to step up with a reform agenda?

by benchcoat on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 12:36:36 PM EST

could it be... (none / 0)

...that the public also perceives a problem with the war-enabling beltway dems?  i think that group of dems has a massive credibility problem, and perhaps that's reflected in this poll.

since the public has now firmly turned against the war, i'm wondering if they are blaming the dems as much as the GOP.  in hindsight, i think the public knows that this war was a mistake, and they are pissed at the GOP for getting us in there and retroactively pissed at the dems for not doing more to stop it.  

both parties own this damn war, and that's why it's so important for the dems to get out in front of this issue as i've said repeatedly on the iraq threads over the past few days.

i think that the public is at the point to where they will get behind anyone of any party who starts offering solutions to the quagmire. they are looking for someone to step up and tell the truth and lead us out of this mess.  whether it be hagel or fiengold or whomever, the public is clamoring for a solution to the quagmire.  GET OUT IN FRONT OF THIS ISSUE. DEMOCRATS!

Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 12:50:57 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: could it be... (none / 0)

I think the problem with Congressional Dems is that they aren't perceived as doing anything--not about the war, but in general--no matter that the Republican majorities are such that the Dems succeed only occasionally by guerrilla warfare.

I do think a positive coherent message would help a lot.  I suspect that in attempting to frame that message we will form our usual circular firing squad.

by InigoMontoya on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 06:25:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: could it be... (none / 0)

People are making way too much of the so-called "war enablers" and the Dems who are supposedly giving in to Bush and his supporters when it comes to the Iraq war.  In my opinion, our piss poor Congressional numbers have nothing to do with this.  

Did you notice that after the war, the next five issues that Americans found most important were all domestic; issues that the Democratic Party have dominated and controlled for years.  This is where we make our gains - by framing a coherent, compelling message on domestic issues like health care and the economy that everyone can relate to.

As far as I'm concerned, the war is important but getting out in front of this issue won't help as much as getting out in front of domestic issues that we dominate but cannot presently articulate.

 

by Eric11 on Thu Aug 25, 2005 at 12:43:16 AM EST
[ Parent ]

what's missing (none / 0)

that horde of values voters we heard so much about last November seems to have been awfully mum when asked what they thought were the two most important issues facing the country.  I don't see gay marriage or "traditional values" anywhere on the list.  
by benchcoat on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 12:42:16 PM EST

I was thinking the same thing. (none / 0)

Abortion is on there, but I don't see the others (maybe they come under domestic/social issues, but that's been at only around 3% over the last decade).  

What I was wondering about--and if anyone knows more about this, please point me in the right direction--is how one distinguishes bottom-up from top-down concerns.  That is, many of these issues I can see waxing and waning over the years, and well recall how the increases match national debates or media discussion of those issues.  Is there any way to distinguish bottom-up surges, where the grass-roots concerns prompted a national debate, from top-down surges, where policy debates or PR pushes prompted the rise?  From my own cynical point of view, it seems like almost all of the rises in percent concerned with issue X are due to pushes by the DC machine (usually, given the decade, the Republican half), with almost no sense of what people are "actually" concerned with.  Maybe such a concept doesn't exist, but it's depressing to think that all these issues are so manufactured.  But at least as Benchcoat points out, the horribly manufactured gay marriage thing isn't in there yet, and maybe the top few--war, economy, gas, health--are a bit more resistant to PR.  But I doubt it.  

The main question though, from an empirical point of view, is how we can distinguish top-down from bottom-up rises in concerns.  The answer may just lie in looking at a detailed political timeline next to the poll results...a lot of work.

by brackdurf on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 02:44:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I was thinking the same thing. (none / 0)

I was also wondering about top-down vs. bottom up issues, too.  how do you differentiate whether the gay marriage issue came from up or down--there looked like a coordinated national GOP push with multiple states putting ballot issues up, constant GOP talking points on it, and heavy FoxNews coverage, but couldn't that have been an opportunistic response to  the court cases in MA and Canada as well as the Portland and SF marriages? It's hard to see it as a bottom up issue in light of the total lack of action on it by the GOP combined with the media's lack of coverage since the election (although maybe you could chalk the media disinterest to a short attention span).  The GOP's message discipline and media saturation seem to have them poised to create top-down issues.

as a side note:  perhaps it's not in the nature of most people to propose discrimination or hate-based issues to pollsters (hopefully because they're not naturally hateful, not just because they're afraid it wouldn't be socially acceptable)

by benchcoat on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 05:44:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Scapegoating (none / 0)

The War on Crime, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror, and the War on Iraq are all part of an ugly over-indulgence in scapegoating by Americans.

We're in the middle of a civil war with the Drug/Crime war and a foreign war in Iraq. Both look at a class of people and deem them criminal and worthy of imprisonment or death. Of course there is a natural urge for people to look at "others" as dangerous and as threats. Republicans, often with Democratic complicity, have been stoking these feelings and directing them against those who defy them at home and abroad. In the case of Iraq, and the case of the Drug War, their solutions are repressive and violent.

We'd do well to see this for what it is and speak out against harsh, brutal, and deadly remedies to our problems. Judging by the polling data cited above America may be ready to hear that message.

by Curt Matlock on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 12:59:55 PM EST

HAH (none / 0)

I knew this was going to happen.

The incredibly short-term memory of the American public, which has been fostered by corporate consumerism, has finally backfired. Americans have largely forgotten 9/11 as the forefront of issues, for better or worse, and it can no longer be tactfully used as a banner to convince them to support Bush's neocon agenda (unless some sort of relapse occurs).

Funny how that works.

by Covin on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 01:44:07 PM EST

So long joshlyman . . . (none / 0)

I'd be sorry to see you go, if you weren't such a coward.
Yeah, I'm cynical.
by catastrophile on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 02:23:53 PM EST

Too bad we dont have an opposition party (none / 0)

The war is the top issue because the media has made it the top issue.  War makes great news, and what helped bush early, will continue to drag him down.  I doubt any issue will trump the war for the forseeable future, unless we suffer a terrorist attack- bush's dream scenario.

I would like to see an opposition party make the criminal mismanagement of the economy a bigger issue in the minds of the people.  For the federal budget to go from a 200 billion dollar surplus in 2000 to record deficits now is unbelievable.  When the congress raised the debt ceiling I dont remember the Democrats reminding us that we have to raise the debt ceiling to afford tax cuts for the rich and the war in Iraq.

The irony of bush's declining approval is that the decline is due to the inevitable outcome of his insane policies, and not because the American people have to chose between two alternative plans.  The democratic party's tacit approval of bush's policies is almost as disguisting to me as the policies themselves.  

by Winston Smith on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 03:57:38 PM EST

David Ignatius gets it. (none / 0)

What the Democrats Should Be Saying.
by craverguy on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 05:49:12 PM EST

Re: David Ignatius gets it. (none / 0)

A perfect expression of everything I feel.  So why doesnt the party get it?
by Winston Smith on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 06:35:44 PM EST
[ Parent ]

on crime (none / 0)

to offer perhaps a little illumination on what happened to "crime" as a concern, since 1994 violent crime has fallen by over half in the US...
http://www.ojp.usdoj.gov/bjs/glance/cv2.htm

So perhaps it's simply not seen to be as much of a priority, because things aren't as bad as they were then.

by torridjoe on Wed Aug 24, 2005 at 07:38:25 PM EST

You just wonder .... (none / 0)

You wonder if they even tell him.  You wonder if he still thinks he has "political capital."
by Blue Boy on Thu Aug 25, 2005 at 05:25:34 AM EST

dem response (none / 0)

You know, I don't want to sound either cynical or naive, but I think all these calls, including the most recent by Ignatius, for the Democrats to put forth a clear alternative are premature.

The intensity of political interest among the roughly 10% of the population that reads political news in the papers (or online) is simply not matched by the remaining 35% of the population that makes up the voting electorate (and leaving out the roughly 55% who have given up entirely).

For the past 8 months, the Republican administration and Congress has done nothing but tank -- this is a huge development, utterly unexpected after the election.

There remain, however, another 15 months until the next elections, which means that if the Dems were to put forth a "clear alternative" at this piont, we would interrupt the dynamic of Republican decline, which appears to be accelerating rather than abating.

There is indeed a need for the Dems to present some clarity about what we would do in power, but that need is not until next fall, for two important reasons: a) we don't agree right now, and as much as most people feel the answers are clear -- withdraw from Iraq at hte top of the list -- we cannot win a majority with that as our message, nor for that matter, is withdrawl a foreign policy; it is a short-term tactic; and b) anything we lay out now as an alternative would provide Bush & Co the foil they need to do the only thing they know how to -- slash and burn an opponent.

by desmoulins on Thu Aug 25, 2005 at 02:05:23 PM EST


You are not logged in.

In order to post a comment, you must be logged in. If you have a member account, please log in to comment.

If not, you can make an account right here. It's quick and free.