Definitely looks like a Republican primary in the works.  Meanwhile Spitzer looks safe from a primary as there hasn't been much word about Tom Suozzi recently.  

The trouble is, with the exception of his first year when he put through a 3-year tax cut, and massively hiked state tuition at SUNY (a major reason--btw--why I became a Democrat as I was at SUNY-Binghamton at the time), and 2003 when he vetoed the state legislature's budget which raised state taxes to fill the shortfall caused by 9/11, he's run the state mostly as a Rockefeller-Republican.  The Conservative party has mostly been unhappy about this, but they've gone along, because of the cushy patronage that they get for being Row D on the ballot and for year-in, year-out routinely providing some 200k or so votes for Republican candidates (New York State has fusion voting, where candidates can be cross-endorsed).  Other conservative groups such as Change-NY which originally were enthusiastic about Pataki when he seemed to be an anti-tax conservative despise him now.  Ditto for National Review and other national conservative papers.  Basically, with the exception of 2-3 years of his 12 year tenure as governor, Pataki has spent money like a drunken sailor, massively run up state debt, etc.  Compared to all the dubious things that Cuomo did (such as "sell" Attica State Prison to some off-budget state-run authority), Pataki has been far worse.

So, basically, the Conservative party has nothing in them to play nice and every incentive to play the bomb-throwers.  Spitzer's very likely to win in any case, so they don't have the threat of losing all that state patronage if they don't hold their noses and cross-endorse Pataki (which is what they did in 98 and 02).  To keep their ballot line they just need to guarantee that they have a candidate who will garner them 50k votes--a small sum in a state with some 10m registered voters.  Indeed, I believe Marilyn O'Grady, their candidate against Schumer in 2004 when they famously didn't endorse a pro-choice, moderate Republican, got well over that number.

Hopefully, what we may be seeing is the beginning of the destruction of the NYS Conservative Party.  Founded in 62 to run candidates against Rockefeller and give Republicans in the state an ability not to have to vote for him, they reached their high-water points in 1970 when they elected Jim Buckley to the US Senate and in 1994 when they were instrumental in getting Pataki elected--Cuomo got more votes on the Democratic line than Pataki got on the Republican, only with the fusion votes from other parties added in did Pataki win.

Again, as I said last week in another post, the Dems if they were really smart, would try to capitalize on all this Republican infighting right now and seize several state senate races.  Long term, if we can wait things out a decade or so, the demographic trends will lead eventually to a Dem majority in the state senate, particularly considering the fact that some 5 or 6 seats of the 35 that Joe Bruno has have Dem majority registrations.  All we need to tie is 4, we need 5 for outright control.  2006, with all the infighting in the state Republican party, and all the anti-Bush voters coming out, we might be able to rush up these trends.  Apparently, this is also why Bruno is privately fuming at Pataki's refusal to run for a 4th term and the utter lack of any creditable replacement candidate to replace him.

Regarding enrollment figures, the NYS Board of Elections is really good on this front.  They have overall month-by-month registration figures by county, by congressional district, by state senate district and by assembly district.  I post below the direct link to the latest figures (April of this year) for state senate districts:

http://www.elections.state.ny.us/enrollment/senate/senate_apr05.htm

Just looking at the Dem to Republican ratios, and not taking into account voters enrolled in the myriad third parties of NYS (both former and currently existing), 6 districts currently represented by Republicans pop out as having more Dems than Republicans:

#11 (N.E. Queens, Bayside, Douglaston, Jamaica Estates) Padavan, an overly noxious immigrant-basher, his district has 92k Dems to only 37k Republicans.  Padavan must be in his 70s by now....

#15 (Queens, Middle Village, Ridgewood) Serphin Maltese (again pushing 80), 77k Dems/35k Repubicans

#22 (S. Brooklyn) Marty Golden (this one is young, but the district was specially gerrymandered in 2000 for him specifically--made up of a lot of Russians who are very conservative because of the Soviet Union, etc.), 76k Dems/37k Republicans

#24 (2/3 of Staten Island)  This is the most Republican of the NYC districts, and even though Marchi is an institution, having served since 1956, the district probably will continue electing Republican/Conservatives as far as the eye can see.  The voter registration does look somewhat doable though: 78k Dems/69k Republicans

These are the 4 NYC Republicans, now 2 suburban seats that popped out at me:

#35 (Westchester, Yonkers) Nick Spano.  Spano almost got defeated in 2004, only winning by 19 votes after his election lawyers succeeded in throwing out large numbers of affadavit voters for his opponent.  She's running again in 2006, so I expect this district to swap hands to us:

90k Dems/50k Republicans

#38 (Rockland County) Morahan.  This is the state senate race back in the 90s that got the commuter tax repealed (NYC from the 60s through the 90s levied an income tax on suburbanites who worked in the City--both political parties back in the 90s tried to outdo each other to win this seat by voting to repeal the tax).  Rockland is a lean-Dem country, full of large numbers of Jewish voters (87k Dems/55k Republicans)

Also, although all 9 of the LI based districts are held by Republicans, districts #7 and #9 in Nassau County by registration figures look doable.  Long Island has been trending Dem for the last decade; 3 out of the 4 congressional seats are held by Dems, and the once-fabled GOP machine in Nassau County is totally kaput now, having first bankrupted the county in the late 90s, then losing the county legislature and finally the county executive (Suozzi).  The only survivors of the machine are its state senators.  Only a matter of time....

Regarding upstate, possibly the Rochester based seat?  What about the other Syracuse based seat as well?  Also, having gone to SUNY-Binghamton and actively campaigned while there for Libous' opponents, I would like someone creditable to take on Libous.  Broome County (Binghamton) just elected Dems to the state assembly and as county executive back in 2004 so we're rebuilding our bench up there....

That being said, I certainly think that both of the Queens seats are ripe for the taking as the GOP has no back bench to speak of in replacing either Padavan and Maltese when they retire/die.  Marty Golden will be much harder to replace, and the Republicans control 3/4 of the state assembly districts in Staten Island as well as 2/3 of the city council seats there and the borough president (equivalent of county executives), so they'll have plenty of people to replace Marchi when he retires/dies.

http://www.latfor.state.ny.us/

This site also breaks down each district by racial demographics