However, even apart form taking control of the Senate, there is another milestone we need to aim for in 2006: taking back control of our caucus. Right now, with forty-four Democratic Senators, one independent Senator, and seven Democratic Senators participating in the so-called "Gang of 14," we actually only have thirty-eight votes to draw from in order to form an opposition to the conservative agenda that is free of Republican "moderate" influence. With forty-one needed in order to form a solid filibuster opposition, in between where we are now and taking majority control there stands another important milestone: forty-eight seats.
While it would be nowhere near as good as majority control, capturing forty-eight seats in the Senate would significantly reduce, if not entirely eliminate, the control the Gang of 14 currently wields over our caucus. Thus, a net gain of three seats would be an important milestone. Further, with Republicans in the difficult position of having to defend twenty-one seats in 2008 to our 12, it would also put us in a very good position to take control over the Senate in 2008. In fact, if we gain three seats in 2006, we could lose overall in 2008 by either an 18-15 or 17-16 margin (or even 19-14 if we take the Presidency), and still take majority control over the Senate.
In lieu of being able to take the majority in 2006, in order to build a solid opposition caucus for the final two years of Bush's term in office we need to make a net gain of three seats outside of Tennessee. Unfortunately, should he win, it is pretty much guaranteed by his past behavior that Harold Ford Jr., the heavy favorite to win the Democratic primary in Tennessee, would gladly join up with the gang the second he was sworn in. Thus, we need three non-Ford seats in order to achieve real victory in 2006 (and no, I am not really that worried about Casey or any of our other candidates joining that group).
If we successfully recruit Hackett and McCaskill, we would have six legitimate targets in order to make this happen: Arizona, Missouri, Montana, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Rhode Island. With a successful defense of our endangered Democratic incumbents and open seats looking realistic, this interim victory in 2006 itself looks realistic. This would also keep the possibility of outright majority control at least somewhat alive. Further, it would also make the possibility of a Democratic trifecta in 2008 a tantalizingly doable scenario.
I know we are all impatient for a tidal wave and for immediately victory, but if we think a little more long-term and a little more into the internal workings of the Senate, hopefully we can see beyond 45 and 51 as our only goals. 48 is an important number as it would signal much more effective opposition. After all, the emerging Democratic alternative is going to rise from being effective opposition party, and it might be an important intermediate step we need to take before reclaiming our rightful mantle as the natural ruling party of the United States.
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