Ohio Results Thread II

by Jerome Armstrong, Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:35:03 PM EST

I just went through and calculated the percentages of the total that each county represents, according to CNN's 2004 CD totals:

Adams- 4%
Brown- 7%
Clermont- 28%
Hamilton-40%
Pike-4%
Scioto-4%
Warren-13%

Chris will carry on with the updates on this fresh thread.

Updates (Chris):

  • Old results thread here.
  • 56 of 753 precints reporting. Hackett 51-49 Schimdt. Hackett 6562-6276 Schimdt. Here we go rock and roll. Yesss!!!! link
  • Holy Shit.
  • 175 of 753 precints, Hackett 51-49 Schimdt. Hackett 13,513-12,802. Its holding.
  • 195 out of 753 precincts. Hackett 52-48 Schimdt. Hackett 14,600--13,549 Schimdt.
  • 250 of 753. Hackett 51.99-48.01 Schimdt. Hackett 18,476--17,046. The force will be with Hackett, always. It is getting close to total freak-out time.
  • 259 of 753. Hackett increases lead. 52.18--47.81. Hackett 19053--Schimdt 17457. Watch out for the karma police.
  • 305 of 753. Hackett 51.08--Schimdt 48.92. Hackett 23,957--Schimdt 22,846. Schimdt closes gap.
  • laddy says: "Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Brown- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over). Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (4 points short). Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (1 point short). Updated Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short). Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over). Warren- 72-28 - 42 (3 points over)."

    That's a nailbiter folks. Might still very slightly favor Schimdt.

  • Find out whatever you can about Clermont Count voting machines. Do it now.

  • 409 of 753. Hackett 50.45--Schimdt 49.54. Hackett 30322--Schimdt 29776.
  • 580 of 753. Schimdt 52--Hackett 48. Schimdt 45,134--Hackett 42,342. Fuck.




Tags: House 2006 (all tags)

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I'm really loving the WCOP results :) (none / 0)

This might turn out really good after all.

Of course, let us remember what happened in November when everything seemed to be going so good early on :(

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:37:08 PM EST

Re: I'm really loving the WCOP results :) (none / 0)

don't remind me.
SquareState.net - Colorado Politics
by pacified on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:56:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Check out... (none / 0)

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html
"Man will never be free until the last king is strangled with the entrails of the last priest." -- Denis Diderot
by Stoic on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:38:35 PM EST

Go Edgewood Schools Levy! (none / 0)


by Kagro X on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:39:16 PM EST

Re: Go Edgewood Schools Levy! (none / 0)

Being from the area, I agree.  They really could use the money.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:41:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

2004 (3.00 / 2)

Results for Brown county 2004 OH-02 race:
Rep. 72%
Dem. 28%

So far, then, it looks good for Hackett who is leading Brown county 57-42.

by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:40:11 PM EST

Update on Brown (3.00 / 1)

Slightly in Schmidt's favor, but not by much:

PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,289   56.52
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,519   43.29
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        11     .19
         Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5,819

by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:46:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Update on Brown (none / 0)

What are you talking about?  That clearly has Hackett winning Brown by 770 votes :)
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:48:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I mean compared to the previous update (none / 0)

Which was:

PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,289   56.52
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,519   43.29
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        11     .19
         Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     5,819

by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:48:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Doh (none / 0)

PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,279   57.30
JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     1,692   42.54
WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .         6     .15
        Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,977

by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:48:56 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Update on Brown (none / 0)

That's the final result for Brown county, FWIW.
by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:48:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I dunno (none / 0)

Less than 20% turnout?  Could be, but this would seem to be too soon to have final numbers.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:12 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nope, another update (none / 0)

 PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,950   55.92
 JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,100   43.88
 WRITE-IN.  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .        14     .20
         Total .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     7,064

--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

thanks (none / 0)

for the clean sheets.  we needed it.
Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:40:18 PM EST

51-49 (none / 0)

Not bad, considering that this should be a BLOW OUT for Schmidt by now...
by jonweasel on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:40:46 PM EST

Oh yeah!! (none / 0)

Looks like tek's birthday surprise came early this year!!
McCain sucks!
by teknofyl on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:44:12 PM EST

damnit (none / 0)

I need an update asap, the suspense is killing me
Tennesseans for Feingold
by ben114 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:44:36 PM EST

Re: damnit (none / 0)

Me too.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:47:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

S E Counties (none / 0)

Any word from Pike, Adams or Scioto yet.  I'm not seeing anything.  Jerome?  Anyone?
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:45:11 PM EST

Re: S E Counties (none / 0)

Nothing from there yet. Hopefully Hackett can keep it close cause those rural counties would push it over the top for him, especially Pike and Scioto.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:47:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: S E Counties (none / 0)

He seems to be the right candidate for that area.  So I am kinda concerned that we are not seeing any results yet.
by Demo Dan in Dayton on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: S E Counties (3.00 / 1)

I was just at the Pike County Board of Elections.  No votes counted yet. They were still waiting for some of the townships to bring the boxes into the board offices.  Hackett signs are everywhere in Pike County.
by rrunyon on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:52:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: S E Counties (none / 0)

Hackett will win in Pike County by a strong margin, like 60-70 percent I think.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:56:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: S E Counties (none / 0)

well, that is the queston...

are the districts left more dem leaning, and if this trend continues, Hackett will be doing extemely well right now.

SquareState.net - Colorado Politics
by pacified on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:57:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If so... (none / 0)

...then he probably wins, if the rest of the results are typical for the rest of the district.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:35 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh, never mind (none / 0)

I now see that it's not the county I thought it was.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:01:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pike County (3.00 / 1)

Schmidt 611 (39%)
Hackett 965 (61%)

12 of 24 precincts reporting

taken from http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:55:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pike County (none / 0)

AHHHAA!  And look down, it seems Paul is closing on Schmidt in Hamilton County too
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:57:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Pike County (none / 0)

Awesome.
by jexter on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

From niq on the old thread (none / 0)

http://66.241.236.181/elect/ohbrown/results.txt
  PAUL HACKETT (DEM)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     3,289   56.52
  JEAN SCHMIDT (REP)  .  .  .  .  .  .  .     2,519   43.29

Hackett won Brown.  Hands down.

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:46:50 PM EST

Re: From niq on the old thread (none / 0)

how red is Brown compared to the rest of the district
Tennesseans for Feingold
by ben114 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:48:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From niq on the old thread (none / 0)

About the same.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:49:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From niq on the old thread (none / 0)

Just a caution that since Hackett lives in the district and has been an elected official before, he's going to win somewhere :). So, it may be brown county. But I don't know much about Southern Ohio geography and I can't remember which town he's from, but keep that in mind.
by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:49:27 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From niq on the old thread (none / 0)

Hmm, well, way to put a bummer on it ;)  But, yah, I don't expect Hackett will actually win the district, but he is doing phenom for a Dem in such a conservative District.  I mean he said Bush was a SOB and they are still voting in droves for him :)
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: From niq on the old thread (3.00 / 1)

Hackett is from Indian Hills which is about 50 physical miles from Brown county and about a million cultural miles away.  This is a very good sign he is doing well here.  This is the sort of county Democrats used to count on.
by rrunyon on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:55:50 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Won it. (3.00 / 1)

Brown is only 7% of the CD's total vote, but Hackett won it by a 56-43 margin. Portman won it by a 72-28 margin in 2002. I earlier figured it as a 60-40 Republican leg margin. That means Hackett swung the vote by about 16% in Brown County. Wow, great start.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:19 PM EST

Re: Won it. (3.00 / 1)

Bush won in Brown by a 64-36 margin over Kerry. So Hackett just finished a complete reversal of a rural county in Ohio for a Democrat. From down by a 20-28 percent margin to winning by 13 percent margin-- better than I thought.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:55:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Results holding ... stay on target ... (3.00 / 2)

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
    PAUL HACKETT     13,512     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     12,802     49%    

That's 23% of all precincts reporting.

Still too close to call. Oy.

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:25 PM EST

Re: Results holding ... stay on target ... (3.00 / 2)

Use the force Hackett...
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:51:47 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Results holding ... stay on target ... (3.00 / 2)

...trust in your instincts...  let go you feelings, Paul...
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:52:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Results holding ... stay on target ... (3.00 / 3)

Paul, you've switched off your targeting computer; whats wrong!?

Nothing.  I'm all right!

John McCain wants to stay in Iraq for a century.
by jkfp2004 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:54:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Results holding ... stay on target ... (3.00 / 1)

Win or lose....The force will be with you, always
by zt155 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:01:06 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Strong in the Force is Hackett.... (3.00 / 3)

Much fear do I sense in Schmidt.  
McCain sucks!
by teknofyl on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:54:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

51-49 holding for Hackett (none / 0)

Now 175 precincts in.
by jonweasel on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:50:42 PM EST

New Numbers (none / 0)

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
    PAUL HACKETT     13,512     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     12,802     49%    
by duncin32 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:51:08 PM EST

Warren County - 64.56% (3.00 / 1)

   PAUL HACKETT                  DEM         3,523     43.33
   JEAN SCHMIDT                  REP         4,608     56.67
--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:51:47 PM EST

Re: Warren County - 64.56% (none / 0)

That's a small move towards Schmidt. Nuts.

Still no results from Clermont county ...

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:55:07 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow, this is a squeaker (none / 0)


by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:52:14 PM EST

Hackett leading with 175 precincts reporting! (none / 0)

Hackett is still leading, with now 175 of 753 precincts reporting, 51% to 49%:

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting
    PAUL HACKETT     13,512     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     12,802     49%

http://www.wcpo.com/news/2005/local/08/02/election_results.html

Come on, Hackett!  Let's keep those numbers rolling in!!

by Matusleo on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:52:20 PM EST

Rural question? (none / 0)

how is Hackett doing in the rural countys?
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:53:22 PM EST

latest (none / 0)

175 precincts of 753 reporting
    PAUL HACKETT     13,512     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     12,802     49%
by ATinNM on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:53:59 PM EST

Happy enough (none / 0)

Well, whether he wins or not, it does my heart good to see him doing so well.
by jnfr on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:54:14 PM EST

52-48!! with 195 (3.00 / 1)

at the hamilton pdf site
by DonBinTN on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:54:44 PM EST

Re: 52-48!! with 195 (none / 0)

Wow, WOW, WOOOWWW!!!

Paul is closing on Schmidt in Hamilton County??!!  Could this really be our night?!

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:56:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 52-48!! with 195 (3.00 / 1)

Hamilton County compiles the district-wide results, being the biggest county in the district.  He's leading across all 7 counties, not just in Hamilton!
by lorax on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:07:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

23% of precincts are in (none / 0)

and we're still holding, its still gonna be damn close though. * passes out*
Tennesseans for Feingold
by ben114 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:55:25 PM EST

What about Hamilton? (none / 0)

How is he doing in hamiltion? sorry for all the questions it's just this is my only source right now.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:58:41 PM EST

Re: What about Hamilton? (3.00 / 1)

HE IS WINNING HAMILTON 52 to 48!!!!

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:00:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

175 Precincts (none / 0)

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
175 precincts of 753 reporting  PAUL HACKETT  13,512  51%  
 JEAN SCHMIDT  12,802  49%  

Tennesseans for Russ Feingold
by schwompa on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:01 PM EST

Compare (none / 0)

the 2004 results to the numbers we have now. It's looking good.
Click here for the 2004 OH-02 results
by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:01 PM EST

Um... (none / 0)

how do you get the 52-48 figure? WCPO is still saying it's 51-49.
by raginillinoian on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:12 PM EST

Re: Um... (none / 0)

Hamilton County is running a total, too.  Right now, it's more up-to-date:

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/RealTime/RealTime.pdf

by jonweasel on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:00:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Um... (none / 0)

Well, just in Hamilton County Paul is winning by 52% to 48%

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:00:52 PM EST
[ Parent ]

eh didn't see the post on it sorry (none / 0)

good to hear
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 08:59:15 PM EST

Hamilton County (3.00 / 1)

With 25% of Hamilton County Reporting

Hackett - 14,676   52%
Schmidt - 13,549   48%

Hamilton County accounted for 40% of the votes in the district in 2004.  This is HUGE!

by sparks on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:00:22 PM EST

Re: Hamilton County (none / 0)

Unbelievably HUGE!  I mean he was _DOWN_ just a little bit ago and he is now _LEADING_ in Hamilton Freaking County.

I'm about ready to piss myself.

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:01:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I take it back (none / 0)

I thought the Hamilton boe link was just for Hamilton County.  It appears those numbers are districtwide.

by sparks on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:02:43 PM EST
[ Parent ]

52-48 holding with 250 in (none / 0)

hamilton pdf site
by DonBinTN on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:02:40 PM EST

Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in (none / 0)

I wish I knew the political demographics in this district -- can we call it for Hackett statistically, yet?
by jonweasel on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:03:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in (none / 0)

No, we can't, Clermont is a GOP stronghold, but then again, so was it all.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:11:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in (none / 0)

Anyone else having trouble loading that? It hasn't worked for me a single time. I never have trouble with any other PDF's, so I'm not sure what the deal is...I don't even get an error - just nothing. ???
by Blogesque on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:10:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: 52-48 holding with 250 in (none / 0)

EVEN BETTER!

Check the Hamilton Link now:
http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf
 Hackett: 19053  52.18%
 Schmidt: 17457  47.81%

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:11:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

probably server load (none / 0)

everybody and their brother is trying to load is right now.
Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Pike County (3.00 / 1)

Hackett 61%
Schmidt 39%

50% reporting

by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:02:55 PM EST

Handy picture (none / 0)

This Enquirer article has a good picture.

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

Note that Hackett's gap closing in Hamilton County has been HUGE. He lost absentees 54.6-45.4, but he has closed to 50.8-49.2 with about 11,600 votes counted. I backed out the absentee voters and this means Hackett is winning Hamilton County poll voters 51.0-49.0.

Does anyone know how Hamilton county turned out in 2000?

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:03:44 PM EST

Re: Handy picture (none / 0)

Okay, overall Hamilton went 53-47 for Bush, and in CD2 went 70-30 for Portman. Either way, that's a dramatic turn.

Does anyone have the Bush-Kerry numbers for the CD2 portion of Hamilton County?

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:05:33 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Handy picture (none / 0)

Well, all kinds of things to feel good about right now.  Ok, when does the shoe drop.
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:05:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clement? (none / 0)

What about Clement County

Someone told me that Shit is counting on this one to take her over the top

by duncin32 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:04:24 PM EST

Re: Clement? (none / 0)

The only results so far in Clement county are absentee ballots.
by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:05:29 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Clement? (none / 0)

That's Clermont- which is probably what you mean since there is no Clement county.
by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:07:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Massachusetts is hoping too.... (none / 0)

I have been watching Paul for some time now
and I am keeping my fingers cross, praying,
you name it, I am doing it...Have been down
this road with hubby a few times and it nerve
wracking...Hang in there.....

Best of luck to Paul and his volunteers...they
have done a super job!!

Moesie from Wakefield, MA

by momaloney on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:04:29 PM EST

Re: Massachusetts is hoping too.... (none / 0)

One more from MA.

My family lives in Portsmouth, OH now.  I recommended Hackett to DFA back in late June.  We need this seat.  No pressure.

-Kevin, Boston

by Ubiquitous on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:07:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warren County - 82.28% (none / 0)

   PAUL HACKETT                  DEM         4,512     42.32
   JEAN SCHMIDT                  REP         6,150     57.68

http://www.co.warren.oh.us/bdelec/search/votingresults/voting_results_publish.asp

--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:04:49 PM EST

Re: Warren County - 82.28% (none / 0)

whoa these numbers are out of line with what other counties are reporting.
by agpc on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:08:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Warren County - 82.28% (none / 0)

Warren and Clermont are going to be the two biggest Republican counties.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:37 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wow! (none / 0)

Latest from the Enquirer's partial results page:

Schmidt: 14,008 votes (48%)
Hackett: 15,154 votes (52%)

2nd Congressional District

by kelvinchapman on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:05:57 PM EST

Jean Schmidt blatantly violating election law (?) (3.00 / 1)

What do you people make of this?

Via Democratic Underground:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=104x4246421
*****
Jean Schmidt blatantly violating election law

Edited on Tue Aug-02-05 07:42 PM by Gabi Hayes

caller to Sam Seder is documenting how Jean Schmidt is getting WELL within the 100 foot margin within which no signs or campaigning is permitted

the caller was GREETED PERSONALLY by Schmidt inside this perimeter

he told pollworkers about it, who asked her to leave

she refused

the caller went back and got a camera and videotaped her violating the law!

Clermont county, btw
*******

by iconoclastic cat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:06:06 PM EST

if anything this shows one thing (none / 0)

Upsets can still happen and i bet the 50 stratagy Dean DNC people are very happy about this.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:06:15 PM EST

Hamilton BOE update (3.00 / 1)

Hackett - 18476   51.99
Schmidt - 17064   48.01

Omniously no precincts have yet reported for Cleremont County.

by adamterando on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:06:27 PM EST

Call me officially FREAKED OUT. (none / 0)


by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:07:34 PM EST

Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me (none / 0)

lemme guess, they use Diebold there . . . ?
by kelvinchapman on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:07:42 PM EST

Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me (none / 0)

I don't think so, but they voted 77% for Portman in 2004 while casting 27.3% of the district-wide vote.  So they're scaring me a bit too....
--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:08:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Claremont Cnty is suddenly scaring me (none / 0)

The vote totals from Clermont county only include absentee ballots. There has not been any update for today's voting.
by YellowDog2000 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More, now (3.00 / 1)

Hackett's lead is increasing with the latest update (259 precincts in) -- 52.18% to 47.81%.
by jonweasel on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:08:03 PM EST

Hackett continues to lead. (none / 0)

Hackett 18476
Schmidt 17064
245 out of 753 pcts in (32.5%)
by LA Democrat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:08:19 PM EST

Re: Hackett continues to lead. (none / 0)

Where are those #s from?
by artvandelay on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:10:26 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Go Hackett! Go Hackett! (none / 0)

Wow.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:09:26 PM EST

Even better people (none / 0)

Check the Hamilton Link now:

http://www.hamilton-co.org/boe/inputdata/Electionsresults/Realtime/RealTime.pdf

Hackett: 19053  52.18%
Schmidt: 17457  47.81%

by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:09:32 PM EST

Schmidt's problem in a close race (none / 0)

By having it close other Republicans with ambition have a reason to quietly undermine Schmidt.

If a Republican has a good chance of getting the nomination in 2006, s/he'd want Schmidt to lose to get the chance to run against Hackett as the GOP nominee.

And I get the impression Schmidt isn't exactly well-liked by her GOP breathren.

Rrrinnggg... Time to change the government.
by Carl Nyberg on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:09:43 PM EST

Re: Schmidt's problem in a close race (none / 0)

"If a Republican has a good chance of getting the nomination in 2006, s/he'd want Schmidt to lose to get the chance to run against Hackett as the GOP nominee."

If Hackett does win, then it will be up to the DCCC to hold up to their end of the bargain by ensuring $2M+ is pumped into his campaign.  

If Hackett wins, the DCCC and DNC cannot afford the GOP, Hastert, and Delay the opportunity to declare this special election a fluke.

by Bill Felmlee on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:17:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

20,600 - 19,000 (52-48)! (none / 0)

at the enquirer site
by DonBinTN on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:11:00 PM EST

Dude... I'm freakin' out here!! (3.00 / 1)

<runscreamingincirclesaroundlivingroom>
ARRRRRRGH!!!  uh-HUH-uh-HUH-oh-yeah!!!
ARRRRRRRRRRAAAAAAAGHHHHHH
</runscreamingincirclesaroundlivingroom>
McCain sucks!
by teknofyl on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:01 PM EST

too much crown & coke (none / 0)

LMAO
Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Oh no! (none / 0)

Not enough!  Time to start numero cinco!
McCain sucks!
by teknofyl on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:25:39 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Red State says (none / 0)

18,615 (48.45%) 19,803 (51.54%), with Hackett winning.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:42 PM EST

More (3.00 / 1)

305 precincts of 753 reporting  
PAUL HACKETT  23,957  51%  
JEAN SCHMIDT  22,846  49%  

by LaughingHistorian on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:12:54 PM EST

Re: More (none / 0)

Wierd that it has been steady 51-49 from the very beginning.  Like others though, I am worried about Clermont.  Is there a logical-historical reason why they have not reported yet?
Andy Katz
by Andy Katz on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:14:53 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More (none / 0)

Well, the turnout is much more than expected. Looks like it will be about 100K that vote, when it was looking, from the Hackett campaigns perspective, that only 50K would vote.
by Jerome Armstrong on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:15:49 PM EST
[ Parent ]

County Results (none / 0)

The first two columns are Bush vs. Kerry - The last column is what Hackett would need to overcome the 14 point difference. The stuff in paranthesis tells you how Hackett is holding up, but some of these, like Hamilton are partial counties, so I used the congressional and approximated based on how short the Democrat performed. Take the grain of salt! Adams- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Brown- 64-36 - 50 (7 points over) Clermont- 71-29 - 43 (4 points short) Hamilton- 70-30 - 52 (3 points short) Pike-52-48 - 62 (1 point short) Scioto- 52-48 - 62 (4 Points over) Warren- 72-28 - 42 (3 points over)
by Kombiz Lavasany on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:21 PM EST

305 Precincts reporting... (none / 0)

Hackett  23,957
Schmidt  22,846  

51-49

by InigoMontoya on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:22 PM EST

we're halfway there, folks! (none / 0)


Visit us at TexasKAOS, where we're taking Texas back!
by annatopia on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:17:20 PM EST
[ Parent ]

9:11 PM, almost half of district reporting (none / 0)

Election Results
Last Updated: 8/02/2005 9:11pm
Note: You must refresh this page for updated results by clicking the reload button on your browser.

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
305 precincts of 753 reporting
    PAUL HACKETT     23,957     51%    
    JEAN SCHMIDT     22,846     49%    

by Blogesque on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:26 PM EST

Re: 9:11 PM, almost half of district reporting (none / 0)

Too close for my comfort, but holy shit, I mean the fact that we're actually winning at this point is just a HUGE victory in and of itself.
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:15:38 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I hope Hackett's team . . . (none / 0)

is keeping a close eye on Clermont County. Don't let the repubs sandbag there, waiting for results elsewhere before reporting its count.
by cs on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:39 PM EST

Looks like Hackett is pulling away (none / 0)

this is great news also on 2006 let's worry about it when that comes we are not sure he has won yet but it sure looks like it. Also i doubt the GOP thought this could happen i'm pretty sure they thought it would be a safe seat with schim. winning by 10+ points.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:13:43 PM EST

County Results (none / 0)

Adams- 64-36   - 50   (7 points over)
Brown- 64-36   - 50   (7 points over)
Clermont- 71-29 - 43  (4 points short)
Hamilton- 70-30 - 52  (3 points short)
Pike-52-48      - 62  (1 point short)
Scioto- 52-48   - 62  (4 Points over)
Warren- 72-28   - 42  (3 points over)

by Kombiz Lavasany on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:14:02 PM EST

What the numbers meant! (none / 0)

The numbers I posted in a comment and Chris put on the front page came from a quick pull of the 2004 election results in the counties. I posted what they meant in a comment above it, and then reformatted and re-posted.

The first two numbers are the Bush vs. Kerry numbers from 2004, with partial counties taking numbers from the Congressional race in 2004. The thrid number is the percentage Hackett would need in the county to get to 50%, and the number in the parenthesis means how many points he's over that threshold.

They represented a quick reference to see how Hackett was doing while only looking at partial numbers. Apologies for confusing people with a set of numbers without an explanation, the explanation didn't make it into comment and was in an above comment in the previous thread.

Here are the numbers, though with almost everything tabulated they don't mean a lot now.

Adams- 64-36   - 50   (7 points over) (34%)
Brown- 64-36   - 50   (6 points over) (100%)
Clermont- 71-29 - 43  (0 points short) (50%)
Hamilton- 70-30 - 52  (3 points short) (70%)
Pike-52-48      - 62  (1 point short) (50%)
Scioto- 52-48   - 62  (4 Points over) (71%)
Warren- 72-28   - 44  (2 points short) (100%)

by Kombiz Lavasany on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 10:07:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Don't get too excited (none / 0)

Clermont and Hamilton, Schmidt's strongest counties, have barely begun counting. All the strong Hackett counties have been mostly counted.

I still expect Schmidt to win, but if it stays close I'll be happy!

by raginillinoian on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:14:17 PM EST

Depends on what's counted in Hamilton (none / 0)

Because such a high chunk of the voters are in Hamilton, the fact that Hackett is winning the poll voters in hamilton might offset Schmidt's strength in Clermont county.
by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:19:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't get too excited (none / 0)

Yeah, it seems like they always count republican counties last.  Elation is usually followed by disapointment.

Either way, the Ohio Repubs have received a shot across the bow tonight.

The question is, can we translate these results into meaningful gains in 06'?

by agpc on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:20:42 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Don't get too excited (none / 0)

This has national implications. It's basically could become a blueprint for how to win.
by bruh21 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:29:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Coming back (none / 0)

Here's the district wide results from WCPO

305 precincts reporting

PAUL HACKETT     23,957     51%    
JEAN SCHMIDT     22,846     49%    

Schmidt has reduced Hackett's margin by 450 votes in the last 46 precincts.

No pressure, folks.

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:15:35 PM EST

I can't tell if I want Paul to win... (3.00 / 1)

...because he will be the first candidate I supported since I left the Republican party or just  because I gave his campaign $100. LOL
Go Paul!
by torrentprime on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:15:36 PM EST

Update (none / 0)

25,920 Hackett
24,527 Schmidt

http://news.enquirer.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20050802/NEWS01/308020015

by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:16:21 PM EST

can only hope. (none / 0)

but i will get excited anyway so i can feel good right now lol.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:16:22 PM EST

One nice thing about supporting a candidate... (none / 0)

...for a congressional district ~2000 miles east of where I live is that the polls closed before I got off work, and I can catch the late returns and not be all bleary-eyed tomorrow.

The downside is I didn't get to vote for him. (But I did throw some money at him, and I'm hoping that helped. :)

Go Three Rivers Schools Levy!!!

by jexter on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:16:42 PM EST

clermont (none / 0)

clermont county is the scariest
by Jordan IU on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:17:01 PM EST

Schmidt's gonna win (none / 0)

Hamilton and Clermont, her strongest counties, haven't been counted. Adams, Scioto, Pike, Warren, and Brown, Hackett's better counties, are almost done.
by raginillinoian on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:17:04 PM EST

Re: Schmidt's gonna win (none / 0)

Actually, almost half of Hamilton has come in and it is breaking in the Dems favor 52-48
by Chris Andersen on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:19:04 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Geotpf: (none / 0)

How many percints is that?
by LA Democrat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:17:23 PM EST

Warren is done (none / 0)

   PAUL HACKETT                  DEM         5,420     41.77
   JEAN SCHMIDT                  REP         7,556     58.23
--Goobergunch
by Goobergunch on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:18:15 PM EST

Excellent blog (none / 0)

Although we don't agree with you, we're watching your posts anxiously.  Keep up the good work.

www.rightangleblog.blogspot.com

by rightangleblog on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:18:23 PM EST

Re: Excellent blog (none / 0)

You stepping all up in mydd. Know what I'm saying? Yeah! Got the numbers, yeah CB's got the numbers. Jeromes got the numbers. We got spreadsheet. Oh yeah...
by Christopher Hitchens on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:20:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Could this be (none / 0)

the battle that turn the tide against the dark side known as the Repugs?
Gandhi - "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
by HCLiberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:18:34 PM EST

Re: Could this be (none / 0)

You keep calling people like me, recently converted Republicans, Repugs and Repukes and the like, and it's probably not going to be the turning of the tide.  
But no room on this thread for name-calling: right now I just want to hope Paul wins it.
by torrentprime on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:24:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Could this be (none / 0)

Thanks for your feedback and I stop using that language.
Gandhi - "First they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you, then you win."
by HCLiberal on Thu Aug 04, 2005 at 10:35:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Warren County (none / 0)

   PAUL HACKETT        DEM         5,420     41.77
   JEAN SCHMIDT        REP         7,556     58.23
by adamterando on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:20:46 PM EST

i'm about to piss in my pants. (none / 0)

Hackett 30322(50.45%)
Schmidt 29776(49.54%)
Still nothing from Clermont

by LA Democrat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:21:03 PM EST

Re: i'm about to piss in my pants. (none / 0)

Clermont Results show 1,800 margin for Schmidt.
Booman Tribune.
by BooMan on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:27:58 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clermont (none / 0)

is the key county

Hackett is going to need a decent lead to overcome this county going for schmidt. If he can pull out 3% lead elsewhere i think he may have it judging by the Hamilton county results.
Who knows he creamed Schmidt in Brown.

Warren doesnt look great.

by Pounder on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:21:09 PM EST

Good luck from the Beaver State (none / 0)

On the edge of my seat in Oregon...
by DF on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:21:58 PM EST

Fingers crossed. (none / 0)

COME ON HACKETT!!!!!!!!!!!
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:22:11 PM EST

Please. (none / 0)

Come on HACKETT!!!!
by LA Democrat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:22:55 PM EST

BOE update (none / 0)

Hackett - 30322
Schmidt - 29776

409 precincts

by adamterando on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:23:23 PM EST

come on hackett (3.00 / 1)

COME ON HACKETT DON'T PISS ME OFF AGAIN OHIO!!!
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:25:08 PM EST

It's happening right now (none / 0)

With zero precincts reporting in Clermont County they are counting how many extra votes they need before they release the numbers.  Yes, it's happening right now, friends.
by sparks on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:26:15 PM EST

FRESH THREAD!! FRESH THREAD!! FRESH THREAD!! (none / 0)

Chris was nice enough to start a fresh thread for all of us nailbiters.
by manyoso on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:26:18 PM EST

Hackett among Hamilton poll voters (none / 0)

Hamilton county is still less than 2/3rd counted, and it looks like Hackett is winning poll voters 51.5%-48.5%. Assuming precincts are roughly uniform, that means he may net another 250 or so votes from Hamilton. Since the rural counties are all almost done, that means he'll have a lead of roughly 1700 votes.

If I've done the math right, this means Hackett needs to stay within 6.5% in Clermont county. Based on 2004 results, there's little reason to think that Clermont is significantly more D or R than the rest of the district. Is Schmidt from Clermont County? Has the GOP consolidated some strength there?

by niq on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:27:06 PM EST

Hackett! Hackett! Hackett! (none / 0)

Go Hackett!!!!!
by LA Democrat on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:27:17 PM EST

Red State Says (none / 0)

37,645 Schmidt 36,421 Hackett :(
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:28:21 PM EST

san francisco is watching (none / 0)

great work!  thanks!
by timrocks on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:28:57 PM EST

Crap (none / 0)

US HOUSE Ohio 2nd Dist
580 precincts of 753 reporting  JEAN SCHMIDT  45,134  52%  
 PAUL HACKETT  42,342  48%

Tennesseans for Russ Feingold
by schwompa on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:32:18 PM EST

shit (none / 0)

    JEAN SCHMIDT     45,134     52%    
    PAUL HACKETT     42,342     48%
by Aurostion on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:32:19 PM EST

Re: shit (none / 0)

Figures.

Seems like the last few election cycles, we get great news at the beginning which is inevitably followed by strong republican gains in the end.

Seems like clockwork, actually.

by agpc on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:34:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: shit (3.00 / 1)

Cities report earlier (more blue), rural reports later (more red).
As least that's how I understand it...
by torrentprime on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:37:05 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Clermont (none / 0)

Took way too fucking long to report anything. Needs folks fishing around.
by Pounder on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:35:24 PM EST

republican "luck" in ohio elections (none / 0)

amazing how elections always seem to work in ohio... the republican starts off behind, and then they miraculously "pull ahead" at the last moment.

what unvelievable "luck"  !

by diogenes7 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:36:28 PM EST

Re: republican "luck" in ohio elections (none / 0)

Happens in SC as well, and always has.

The "reddest" county in the state is also the last to come in.

These things happen.

by wayward on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 10:31:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Awww, geez, not this shit again (none / 0)

It's just like Mongiardo/Bunning all over again.

by wayward on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:39:54 PM EST

Forget republican, how could a Schmidt... (none / 0)

...lose in Zinzinnati? Does anyone know if Hackett is still carrying Hamilton County?
by Willifol on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:43:43 PM EST

Hackett comes back! (none / 0)

662 precincts of 753 reporting  
JEAN SCHMIDT  49,681  50%  
 PAUL HACKETT  48,811  50%  

by dwbh on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:56:35 PM EST

Re: Hackett comes back! (none / 0)

Clermont is the only county still out. Doesn't look good.

by wayward on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 10:29:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

HOLY SHIT, it's CLOSE (none / 0)

with 662 of 753, Hackett is now only down by less that 800 votes!!!
by sjs1959 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 09:57:55 PM EST

diebold "luck" factor (none / 0)

now all hackett has to beat is the diebold "luck" factor.

good "luck"!

by diogenes7 on Tue Aug 02, 2005 at 10:06:02 PM EST


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