The final action has been posted. Once you take it, cross your fingers,
say a prayer, and get ready for the returns. We have done everything we cold possibly do. The die is cast. What will tonight's results mean?
Here are my thoughts, which have not changed much:
Even if he [Hackett] loses, which remains the most likely outcome, the Hackett campaign has turned a corner of Ohio a little more purple, which in turn turns the state and the nation a little more blue. We have drained money from Republicans nationally, spread our message to one of the reddest parts of the country, and identified numerous activists to help keep up the fight in the future. That is a huge success. That is called building a party from the ground up. That is
a fifty-state strategy. That is ending
the scourge of the uncontested. Stuart Rothenberg may think I am clueless for
supporting and encouraging stuff like this, and if he were the one talking to the grassroots about political strategy instead of bloggers, maybe the Paul Hackett phenomenon would never have happened. That, I think, would be a tragedy. If someone can't see the importance and the already achieved success of the Paul Hackett campaign, then they are the truly clueless.
Of course, if Hackett actually wins, then the flood-gates are open. Every Ohio Republican would be vulnerable. The long-awaited reversal of 1994 might finally be upon us.
My final prediction is going to be pessimistic, at least by
blogosphere standards: 56-44 in favor of Schmidt. There just have been too many disappointing elections recently for me to expect more. I also think the final barrage of negative ads against Hackett, the Cincinnati Enquirer endorsement, and the basic demographic problems in this district will drag Hackett down. Had Hackett won the endorsement, I would be predicting at least 48% for him.
Charlie Cook says:
Bottom line: Schmidt, the Republican, is still favored to win the election, but don't rule out the possibility of an upset, given the vagaries of August special election voter turnout and the problems unique to Ohio this year. But even assuming a GOP win tonight, the margin of victory can give us some insight into just how radioactive the governor's troubles and the "time for a change" sentiment in the state will be for other Republicans in the Buckeye State next year. If Schmidt's victory margin is in double digits, this tells us that there is not much of an anti-GOP wind in Ohio right now. If the margin is say six to nine points for Schmidt, then there is a wind, but certainly no hurricane. A Schmidt win of less than five points should be a very serious warning sign for Ohio Republicans that something is very, very wrong, while a Hackett victory would be a devastating blow to the Ohio GOP.
Responding to Cook,
Tim Tagaris writes:
Talk about lowering the bar for Ohio's Republican Party. To say that a 6 to 9 point spread is indicative of "wind but no hurricane" is ridiculous. Anything within 10, in a district that
has gone recently gone Republican by more than fifty percentage points, shows the ship has already sunk for the Ohio Republican Party--they have until Nov. 2006 to salvage whatever wreckage they can.(...)
Whatever happens here, the big story is how the grassroots of the Democratic Party competed, outraised, and outmanned the NRCC. We forced them to blow a ton of money in a district that should have gone red by 50 points. This race is a complete validation of Howard Dean's 50 state strategy and our ability to compete in any race, at any level, in any location across the country.
The mere fact that the GOP D.C. re-enforcements have been called in at such a high level has got to be a major dissapointment to all "yellow elephants" across the country. This race should put all Democrats and Republicans statewide on notice. Bob Ney, we are coming for you. Ralph Regula, your seat is no longer safe. Steve LaTourette, we will remember your CAFTA flip-flop. It's a brand new ball-game, and it all started in OH-2--the last place anyone thought it would.
I think I agree with both Tim and Cook, if I can be a weasel for a moment. Tim is right--anything under ten is a huge success, and would be every statewide Republican on notice. However, if it is between six and nine, Republicans will still at least have something of a fighting chance in Ohio in 2006. Everyone is universally in agreement that if the margin in five or less, or even if Hackett wins, then the entire Ohio Republican Party is up a creek without a paddle. It's too bad that certain weak-willed newspaper boards don't have the guts to endorse change when change is so desperately needed.
You turn. I'll be back for the returns tonight.
