New 2008 Polling On Iowa GOP Caucus

Republican firm Victory Enterprises has released extensive polling of "potential Iowa Republican caucus attendees" on the 2008 race. I quote that section as there is no weighting in the poll for likely caucus attendees, which would give a much more accurate picture of the state of the race (which really isn't even a race yet). While I have problems with the methodology, they do deserve credit for giving voters two slates of candidates.

John McCain 21.7%
Rudy Giuliani 21.7%
Newt Gingrich 13.8%
Bill Frist 8.0%
George Pataki 2.8%
Mitt Romney 2.2%
George Allen 1.5%
undecided 28.3%

With the second list, the pollsters took a bit more liberty, adding Chuck Hagel, Sam Brownback, Haley Barbour, and the popular but not-running Condoleeza Rice.

Condoleeza Rice 30.3%
John McCain 16.0%
Rudy Giuliani 15.3%
Newt Gingrich 7.5%
Bill Frist 3.7%
George Pataki 2.0%
George Allen 0.7%
Chuck Hagel 2.5%
Sam Brownback 1.0%
Mitt Romney 0.5%
Haley Barbour 0.0%
undecided 20.5%

Most of this is completely speculative, but at least it's complete speculation that's taking place in Iowa. Predictably, the candidates with the highest name recognition -- Rice, Giuliani, McCain, Gingrich, Frist -- are the candidates who poll the best. The exception here is Pataki, with 70.5% name recognition, but less than 3% support. Though I don't put too much stock in polls this early in the game, I'd have to say this means a Pataki candidacy is DOA.



Display:


McCain (none / 0)

What is interesting to me is that the top candidates -- McCain and Guiliani -- many people presume won't make it through the primary season.

While I think that is certainly the case with the pro-choice Guiliani -- unless he does an about face for purely political purposes -- I do think that John McCain has learned his lessons from the 2000 primaries.

He still calls himself pro-life, and I have seen him recently pushing the anti-abortion message. When asked questions about the health of the mother, stem-cell research, etc., he said those were tough questions, and behaved as if he were grappling with the issues themselves -- certainly not what the Religious Right would want to hear, but enough to make them think he could be persuaded to their side.

He also seems to have come into line with the Bush administration and mended fences over the slander that took place in 2000. John McCain is a smart politician. He realizes having Karl Rove on his side is a lot better than having him against McCain.

In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if come 2008, Rove is working in some capacity in the McCain campaign.

TAKE BACK OUR PARTY: Democracy Bonds
by LiberalFromPA on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 08:35:19 PM EST

Nothing More Than Names (none / 0)

How is the poll anything more than name ID?

Running a poll that includes so many candidates, without more information, doesn't provide much insight.

They ought to put the various policy positions with the candidates.

Like, how many Republicans would support a candidate who supports equal rights for gays?  Or who is pro-choice?

by James Earl on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 10:35:31 PM EST

There's something fishy.... (none / 0)

....about why none of these speculative polls list Jeb nor Cheney.

by Guy on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 11:54:26 PM EST

Complete BS! (none / 0)

I know the Ohio Caucus Voter, and these my friends are not the choices of Repbulican Ohio Caucus goers. The problem with polling for the straw polls or caucuses is that most of these people will never vote in the straw polls, besides the fact that it's too early. Ohio GOP straw pollers tend to be more (much more) coservative than this group. Guilliana may have a chance ONLY if the conservative vote is broken up between enough candidates, but John Mccain and Rice have no chance whatsover. It should be suprising that Guilliana is near 20%, because that's about the ceiling I'd suspect for him in Iowa. I place my limited credibility on the above statement.

Thanks for the poll though, and I agree with everything you wrote.
by Kombiz Lavasany on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 12:21:54 AM EST

Re: Complete BS! (none / 0)

I don't think you know much about caucus voters if you don't even know their freaking state.

Also, I would suspect that Newt Gingrich's numbers are a little inflated, as he has been the most obsequious potential candidate at this point.  Neither McCain nor Giuliani have really gotten any coverage here, but Gingrich has been through twice (once quite recently) and has his dick firmly lodged up the ass of one of the Des Moines Register's political columnists.

Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 03:43:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Complete BS! (none / 0)

Lol, Thanks for catching that, everything was Ohio yesterday and I miswrote the state. But seriously I really don't think socially liberal candidates have a chance in Iowa, unless the Socially conservative vote gets fragmented too many ways, something I don't think is going to happen in 2008. In my opinion, Brownback may have some appeal, but I don't thinnk Geingrich is really overperforming. We'll have to wait and see. You're not talking about Yepsen are you?
by Kombiz Lavasany on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 09:44:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Complete BS! (none / 0)

Yeah, yepsen.  I agree with you that we have a pretty nutso social conservative movement - gary bauer's and alan keyes' performances in 2000 show that.  I agree that brownback could perform, but Gingrich has a whole host of issues that people aren't thinking about right now because no one is running against him.  I would be extremely surprised to see him pull double digits in the caucus, if he stays in that long (which I also doubt will happen).
Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 03:48:10 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Complete BS! (none / 0)

Yepsen always struck me as a complete hack, on one hand he's sometimes play it down the middle and describe the issue. But most of the time some of his columns are verbatim Republican talking points. On the death penalty, he literally was mouthing off the talking points for the Republican State Senate.

In my opinion I think Gingrich will do better in Iowa than people expect. He's not gone insane, and can run as a serious Republican while everyone else in the State will have to come in and try to rally the base. The rallying the base in 2007 in Iowa will be one of the most amazing things to see in Iowa, and I hope bloggers take time to visit Republican events. The Schaivo affair will look like well reasoned legislation, and rhethoric in comparison.

by Kombiz Lavasany on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 07:16:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Complete BS! (none / 0)

Well, I'm registered Republican and on their mailing list, so I'll try cover stuff on my blog.  :-)
Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Tue Aug 23, 2005 at 03:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

The Poll Does Reveal Something (none / 0)

Namely, among candidates with low voter ID, which ones seem to be popular. Among candidates with high name ID it shows who is the most popular.

Just showing the percentages is...misleading. The poll should disclose the various name recognition of each. After all, why do you think Condi is 30%?

In any case, Hagel's strong showing (relatively speaking) is an interesting sign. I think he's in better shape and might take fill the maverick void created by McCain not running.

by risenmessiah on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 01:53:52 AM EST

Re: The Poll Does Reveal Something (none / 0)

Hagel is from neighboring Nebraska, so his name ID could be a little higher than you think.
Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 04:34:46 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Poll Does Reveal Something (none / 0)

Not quite.

Omaha is not Boston. Whereas everyone in New Hampshire had heard of John Kerry in 2003...only the less populated, western half of Des Moines relies on Omaha TV stations. So in reality the state that has a tremendous name ID within Iowa is actually Illinois...not Nebraska. (Chicago and Illinois media that spill into Iowa's more populous eastern half.)

by risenmessiah on Fri Aug 19, 2005 at 03:24:48 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Poll Does Reveal Something (none / 0)

That's certainly true, and if someone from Illinois was running I imagine we would see even higher name ID that would be otherwise unexplained.

However, I wasn't positing that Hagel is a household name; merely that his name ID could be higher than one might think.  Don't forget that western Iowa is the most Republican part of the state, and that in general the Des Moines area stations are also more likely than most other media markets to cover someone from Nebraska.

Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Tue Aug 23, 2005 at 03:26:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: The Poll Does Reveal Something (none / 0)

Well I think obscuring that is how the local media fawned over Harkin 1988. I don't see it as likely that a non-Iowa candidate would get that sort of treatment there. But because so much of the media now is consolidated it's really hard to know without going to Iowa what sort of coverage people see on border states.
by risenmessiah on Tue Aug 23, 2005 at 05:54:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Condi is doing well... (none / 0)

...because the Republicans are assuming we will nominate Hillary, and they like to run "like with like".  That is, if we nominate a woman, they have to nominate a woman too (and she's black as well-bonus).
by Geotpf on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 12:30:16 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Condi is doing well... (none / 0)

Nah, that's all name ID. I knew who Condi Rice was in the 90s. She's the same old, nutty, socially awkward Stanford professor. It's the Senate's fault for confirming someone as detached as her. She would appear at first to be a very tough candidate in 2008...but she would reveal herself over time and there's no adjective to describe her social ineptitude.

She's simply not a good choice for an executive...not because she was an academic...not because she's a woman, and not because she's an unmarried black lady. Her position papers place her somewhere between Norman Poderhoetz and Dr. Strangelove. Her speciality is the Soviet Union of the 1970s. It warps her view of China, what's left of the Soviet Union, and the developing world.

In her mind, the Cold War never ended because "evil" still exists in the world. And it's why we have to maintain a vigorous international presence. And if she is not there to herd it, the world will fail. After all, a person so socially marginalized has to give themselves value.

We can only hope the GOP nominates her in 2008.

by risenmessiah on Fri Aug 19, 2005 at 03:22:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Rice? (none / 0)

I wasn't aware that androids could run for president.  How long before her batteries need recharging?
by steve expat on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 03:50:24 AM EST

These early polls are jokes (none / 0)

Rice and Giuliani will not come close to getting nominated, and I doubt Rice would even run. Same with McCain. He'll try, but come up short again.
by dole4pineapple on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 10:01:33 AM EST

Re: These early polls are jokes (none / 0)

I dont think Hagel is going to run, because him and McCain would be drinking from the same cup. Same with Brownback and Santorum (one has to go).
Condi would be a tough sell I think. Yes she's a black woman Republican, but with Bush's approval ratings extremely low, would a Bush lackey really rack in the support? I would think not.
I still like George Allen, but he hasnt been doing too well in the polls. And oh yes, Guiliani CAN NOT win. The day the GOP nominates a pro-choicer is the day hell freezes over.
by AC4508 on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 01:17:22 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: These early polls are jokes (none / 0)

George Allen's name ID is probably quite low in Iowa.
Bleeding Heartland - Iowa's Progressive Community-oriented blog
by ItsDrewMiller on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 03:49:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Redstate.org and Brownback (none / 0)

If you look at redstate.org, they seem to love brownback (also saw some support for Pawlenty don't know enough to comment on Pawlenty though). It will be interesting to see how he does although I haven't seen anything from him to set him apart from the other GOP candidates. He just seems like a staunch conservative, nothing really special about him.  
Tennesseans for Russ Feingold
by schwompa on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 01:50:30 PM EST

Re: Trent Lott's (R-MS) New Book (none / 0)

I read an article about Trent Lott's book at lunch today. I'm considering picking the book up. What was said about Bush / Frist was interesting because I am a liberal and I'd love to see a negative view of them from within their party, but I'm really intrigued about what he has to say about his relationship with former President Clinton.
by material boy on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 03:19:13 PM EST


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