August Straw Poll for the 2008 Democratic Presidential Nomination

The August straw poll is up. This is definitely the Donkey's Gone Wild edition of the poll, which includes several candidates who have not been included in the past. Many of these candidates are not going to run. But hey, there are only another thirty of these polls before Super Tuesday, so let's have some fun while we can.

I have created an IRV version of this poll, which can be found here.

Update: I just heard from Bob that Schweitzer has seen the poll, and believes that those who vote for him are "smoking pinecones." Awesome. That almost makes me wished I'd voted for him.



Display:


How do I Vote? (none / 0)

  Anybody?
by VIJP on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 12:01:17 PM EST

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

http://www.demochoice.org/dcballot.php?poll=tbbkya

:)

by KnightRider on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 12:09:36 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

What do you want from a candidate?

I'm looking for someone who will talk clearly and straightforwardly, inspire people with a very Democratic message, isn't likely to be beholden to wealthy interests, isn't frustratingly conservative, has some courage, has given us a good indication of what kind of president they'd make and will be a good one, and can win the election.

I'm really looking for Howard Dean, but he's not on the ballot and not gonna run :)

So, I voted Feingold #1, Clark #2, and that's all.

Fortunately, my vote still counted :)
Looks like, as of now, Clark is running away with it from round one - nobody every gets close to him.  But Feingold and Gore start out 2nd and 3d, and pretty much stay that way, and close to each other, through all the rounds, with Feingold a bit ahead.

by cos on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 12:11:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

You could wait to see who Dean backs.

I am.

Not. One. Inch.

by mdhatter on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:52:08 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

Can Dean do that in his current position? Did McAwful officially back anyone?
by jen on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 03:04:40 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (3.00 / 2)

Dean had damn well better not back anyone.

I can't think of many things he could do more dishonorable.  Except maybe breaking his promise and running himself.

Not saying he'll do either.  I like to think he takes his office and responsibilities more seriously.

by hf jai on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 03:37:32 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Exactly (none / 0)

It's part of his job not to back any one canidate.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 05:22:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

looking over old comments (none / 0)

You are EXACTLY correct.

(slaps forehead)

by mdhatter on Wed Aug 31, 2005 at 07:11:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

You've gotta keep one thing in mind.  SKELETONS in the closet and those in the open.  Can Feingold win with a nasty divorce hanging over his head?  Would that be a death knell putting him at the top of the ticket?  I could easily see him as a #2.  Is Wes Clark seasoned enough to get his point across? I supported him early in '04 but he just seemed to stumble on things at times and it frustrated me.
by djhwood on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 02:45:14 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Nasty divorce? (none / 0)

From what I've heard, Russ' divorce was remarkably amiable.
by Ramo on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 12:39:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Yes (none / 0)

The one rumor I've heard was that she didn't want Russ to run for president.  If there's even a grain of truth to that rumor, that, of course, means Feingold is in.
by Geotpf on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 06:30:15 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: How do I Vote? (none / 0)

Vote your heart.
Invest in nature
by NCDem on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:01:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Very cool! (none / 0)

I like this poll. Looks like my #2 and #3 are neck-in-neck - Gore 31 votes and Feingold 34 votes. My #1 now and always, Wes Clark is winning!
by jen on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:19:29 PM EST

Vote (none / 0)

Edwards 1st (head).  Feingold 2nd (heart).  Didn't bother to rank the remaining because I don't like any of them, save possibly for Gore, who isn't running anyway.
by Paleo on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:29:39 PM EST

Schweitzer baby (none / 0)


Who do we want???

  1. A straight talking, charasmatic SOB.  

  2. Someone who brings in serious EVs in a state or region.

  3. At least some foreign policy experience.

  4. Someone with a sympathetic ear for progressives (at least).

Those ALL describe Brian Schweitzer:

#1 and #4 are pretty obvious.

#2-- he probably bring in CO, NV and NM (Schweitzer-Richardson ticket???)- or 18 EVs.

#3-- he worked in the middle east in private sector for years.  Since the asshats (my word of the day) running the war seem to equate private service with military service, seems they'd have a tough time critiquing him on this.

And yeah yeah- I know he said people drafting him are "kooky"-- but if he moves up in some of these straw polls and it becomes obvious he'd win a lot of western primaries and compete in places like NH (where his style would be loved- see McCain) - it becomes a lot less Kooky.

Would you hire George W Bush to be YOUR latex salesman?
by jgkojak on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:46:26 PM EST

Re: Schweitzer baby (none / 0)

I think that Schweitzer summed it up best --

Anyone who offers his name up as a possible candidate in 2008 is "loony".

I really, really like him.  But he is without a doubt not running.

by alexm on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 04:06:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Schweitzer baby (none / 0)

This is a 2008 candidate poll.  Schweitzer is not an option.  He's not interested, not going to run, and wouldn't be ready for it if he were.  Schweitzer for MT governor in 2008, yay!  Schweitzer for president?  Maybe in a 2012 poll.
by cos on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 11:51:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

More Cowbell (3.00 / 1)

Christopher Walken '08

you think i kid?

by mdhatter on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 01:50:56 PM EST

Re: More Cowbell (3.00 / 1)

Guess what: I got a fever, and the only prescription is... RUSS FEINGOLD
by Hannula on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 02:29:11 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: More Cowbell (none / 0)

Walken is too European.. Have we not seen The Continental?  

Vote Feingold 2008.

Tennesseans for Russ Feingold
by schwompa on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 10:03:24 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Because It Is Bitter, (none / 0)

And Because It Is My Heart.

John Kerry ranks below Joe Biden!

I wonder if anyone has the heart to tell him.

We are a very bitter crowd.

by James Earl on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 02:02:03 PM EST

Re: Because It Is Bitter, (none / 0)

That we are.
by Chris Bowers on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 04:01:45 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Schweitzer (3.00 / 2)

It was funny showing the Governor the straw poll. I'm at the PLAN kickoff right now and Schweitzer just gave one of the best speeches I have ever heard. Amazing speech.

There are a number of bloggers with me at the event so I'm sure there will be lots of coverage. TRight now, Jackie Speier is introducing Edwards, Sirota just finished a great speech. I'll have more later...

by blogswarm on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 03:58:45 PM EST

Schwietzer will be the Dem nominee (none / 0)

If the Dems. screw up 08.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 04:43:42 PM EST

My ranked choices and why (3.00 / 1)

Al Gore: Most progressive and suitably qualified out there. Great record as an "active Veep" (best VP ever? I think so). Period

Russ Feingold: It's the principles, stupid.

Bill Richardson: Cross-party appeal

Wesley Clark: Nice guy, strong national security trump-card.

Mark Warner: Excellent gubernatorial accomplishments. Southern Dude.

Hillary Clinton: PRO: intelligent and capable. CON: fake, pathetic and unacceptable (to me) recent "shift to the right".

Brian Schweitzer:  PRO: Cow-boy guvna! CON: too limited record and experience in that role.

Evan Bayh: PRO: "presidential presence". CONS: 1) It's the DLC, stupid 2) His recent pubibc desparaging comments about the party.

Barbara Boxer: PRO: fiesty stands early this year. CONS: 1) thar vim and vigor was short-lived. 2) uncharismatic (a visit to a pricey hair-stylist badly needed).

John Edwards: PRO: Clintonesque CON: Not sufficiently Clintonesque where is counts and helps.

Ed Rendell: PROS: 1) Blue-collared chap. 2) Quite good at deflecting smears with a smile (i.e. a "cool head") CONS: 1) IMO, looks like a garden variety "dirty politician". 2) May in fact be "dirty", and if true, will be indefensible.

Tom Vilsack: CON: It's the DLC, stupid. PROS: 1) Don't know much about him or his record. 2) Not an "Eastern elite liberal"

Joe Biden: CON: Talking head extra-ordinaire.

Other candidate: Vestige of starry-eyed optimistism.

Undecided: Indecisiveness.

John Kerry: 1) You've had you chance, dude, let it go! 2) Performed a flip-flop iraq tango before and during the campaign. 3) Should've fought Ohio for a nominal day or two, at least 4) Should've defended his honor when the swift junkies smeared him. 5) Should've delivered a quotable little during the last 15 years or so of his senatorial stint. All in all, you're a nice guy, I think, Senator, but please spare yourself and others the time and the trouble.

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 05:12:41 PM EST

I agree with most of this (none / 0)

Although my personal choices at this point are Feingold, Clark, Schweitzer, then "somebody with a D by thier name", in that order.
by Geotpf on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 05:33:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I agree with most of this (none / 0)

thanks. IMO, Gore and Feingold are the definitive "progressive" candidates on the list.

Neo

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 05:46:23 PM EST
[ Parent ]

I'm still not sure about Gore (none / 0)

His 2000 campaign was...disappointing, to say the least.  His pick of Lieberman as VP showed a complete lack of judgement, in my mind.  Granted, his being on the ticket was probably the primary reason Florida was even in play, but that wasn't his reasoning, I don't think.

I'm also positive he's not running.  He's done with politics, and is instead concentrating on running bad TV networks.

by Geotpf on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 06:28:00 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm still not sure about Gore (none / 0)

does anyone remember how boring he was? and how he look at people as if they where retarded they may be but you don't do that to win Presidential election.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 09:43:31 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm still not sure about Gore (none / 0)

does anyone remember how boring he was?

He is no longer "boring", IMO. Have you heard his recent speeches? His problem in 2000 was that he was too camera-conscious and was not crisp in his message.

and how he look at people as if they where retarded they may be but you don't do that to win Presidential election.

He looked down and sighed at George Dumbya Bush as if the latter is a retard (I do agree that that may have cost him votes and possibly the election; But I am sure that Gore won't be sighing in 2008 debates should he be the nominee :)). But in W's case, that's hard to resist, don't you agree?

Neo

CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 09:58:37 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: I'm still not sure about Gore (none / 0)

i Don't mean Dubya i mean the people in general the way he tryed to talk to them the whole "lock box" thing and all of that he made sense but wasn't much better than Kerry has far has charisma goes and also i belive he should have done everyone thing he could do to win Florida during the Recount he didn't do enough work there and Harris and Gov. Bush gave it to W.
Running the Davis, Nelson Klein team in Florida.
by Liberal on Thu Aug 18, 2005 at 08:37:01 PM EST
[ Parent ]

No argument about Gore and Feingold (none / 0)

But I'd add Clark to the list of "definitive" progressives.

He took some of the most progressive positions of any of the 04 candidates, was probably the only one willing to use the "L" word (liberal) to describe himself, and was utterly fearless in calling out Bush, Rove and DeLay by name.

Many have expressed skepticism of Clark because of their preconceptions of military officers, or because he has no voting record as an elected official.  But if you take a closer look at his military career, you'll see a documented history of defending progressive values, especially in regards to human rights, the environment, and making education and access to health care a priority of effort and funds.  The fact that he stood up for these things within the military culture, where it often made him no friends among the other brass, should tell you something.

by hf jai on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 07:22:34 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Missed (none / 0)

1) Al Gore: Not to mention that THE CREEPUBLICANS stole his victory (IMO) in broad daylight.
CLICK to Draft Al Gore!
by NeoLiberal on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 05:47:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

This Could Be A Trap, If It Was Manipulated. (none / 0)

This so-called "IRV" voting scheme can easily turn into a trap for voters, if manipulated adroitly. Like the plurality voting method, all forms of IRV (there are many) suffer from the black hat syndrome. However, they insidiously make this black hat syndrome far less obvious. (The black hat syndrome gives the result that a high-rank vote for your favorite candidate can cause your most dreaded candidate to win.) (Some other less dangerous schemes,such as approval voting with sequential runoff, bear only a gray hat syndrome, in which a high-rank vote for your favorite candidate can cause a less-than-preferable, but not dreaded, candidate to win.)
by blues on Tue Aug 16, 2005 at 07:00:08 PM EST

Re: This Could Be A Trap, If It Was Manipulated. (none / 0)

I think the various mathematical demonstrations that IRV is flawed that I've seen floating around are ridiculous.  And the biggest flaw in most of them is, pretty much all of them present IRV as a "ranking" system where you rank all the candidates in order of preference.  They then show you how your ballot might end up helping some of your lowest-ranked candidates, because of the way the other ballots distribute.  Well, duh!  Those lower-ranked candidates are candidates you voted for!  Of course there's a possibility your ballot might help those candidates.  You're not supposed to vote for candidates you hate, period.  Just vote for the ones you like.

I voted Feingold #1, Clark #2.  Period.
There is absolutely no way my ballot could help any candidate other than those two, no matter how anyone else voted.

The other major flaw with most of these anti-IRV examples is, they are bizarre highly contrived ballot distributions that would never happen in a real election with more than about 10-20 votes.  Every voting system has degenerate cases, but IRV is unusual in that its degenerate cases are exactly the ones that make no sense.  It would take a very high percentage of "black hats" to bring them about - a high enough percentage that they'd spoil any vote taken using any method.

by cos on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 12:04:27 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be A Trap, If It Was Manipulated. (none / 0)

I suppose I should clarify what I meant by "help" a candidate.  Of course if it were to happen that neither of the candidates I voted for wins, it's certainly possible that my ballot might have changed the order in which candidates were eliminated so as to tip the balance between two candidates who were otherwise fairly close to each other.  But that only happens if both candidates I voted for are eliminated.  My ballot won't help the candidates I don't want (and didn't vote for) beat the ones I do want (and did vote for).
by cos on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 12:06:59 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: This Could Be A Trap, If It Was Manipulated. (none / 0)

Firstly, it is close to impossible to demonstrate by any method, "mathematical" or "heuristic," that there is any problem with "IRV" voting for the simple reason that, while there is basically only one method of casting such ballots, there seem to be an endless number of ways of counting them. (I really should say "interpreting" them.) Some of these methods of "interpretation" are far better than others, and it seems that the better ones are those that include onerous stipulations -- for example -- the stipulation that all of the information contained in every single ballot must be gathered into one final central tabulation location. Now, there are many ways of avoiding this need to have every ballot at hand at the point of the final decision, but they turn out to exist only in types of "IRV" that can be easily manipulated by organizations that have superior economic resources.

I know of no "mathematical" way of demonstrating why these things occur -- one must resort to a "war dialing exercise in multiple thought experimentation." (Evaluating "IRVs" turns out to be vastly complicated, and the serious analyst is eventually forced to the conclusion that she or he is dealing with something akin to a defective Rubik's Cube, which never gets solved.)

It would be wonderful if these flaws were only "theoretical," and would never manifest in the real world, but that is far from the case. Oddly enough, the flaws turn out to constitute readily exploitable security holes that always strongly favor organizations that have the economic power to utilize them.

So, in the real world, if you are faced with a choice of , say F.D.R., Jimmy Carter, Bob Dole, Ronald Reagan, Richard Nixon, and Adolph Hitler, you could very easily end up getting Hitler by placing votes only for (1) = F.D.R & (2) = Jimmy Carter, instead of placing votes only for (1) = Jimmy Carter & (2) = F.D.R. (Choosing the second of these options could create a situation in which Hitler eventually trumps Carter.)

Yes, this is all very, very complicated, and requires advanced knowledge of information science to grasp.

My suggestion of using sequential runoffs in combination with approval voting (in which you are not required to rank any on canditate as "first" in a multi-candidate race) eliminates all of these complications. It could be four times as labor-intensive for the poor voters, but they could, for example: (1) approve of 8, (2) narrow their approval to 4, (3) again narrow their approval to 2, and (4) finally choose between the 2 remaining candidates in an election resembling our current plurality process. Nothing could go terribly wrong if such a process were implemented. More importantly, such a processs could never be manipulated so as to force the voters to make complex decisions that would saddle them with leaders whom they despise. And the four sequential runoffs would make for a great show in which voters could make many meaningfull choices. (You do not increase meaninful choices merely by in creasing the volume of choices. For example, If I offer you a lottery ticket and let you choose the played number, I am not giving you any more than I would were I to offer you a lottery ticket and reserved the choice of played number to myself.)

All of the "relatively superior" "IRVs" are far too complicated to be executed without the aid of massive computer mediation.

Consider Australia: Those people have had a form of IRV for a very long time indeed, and they have been saddled with an utterly tyrannical "two-party system" for some time now (which they utterly despise).

by blues on Wed Aug 17, 2005 at 06:12:30 PM EST
[ Parent ]


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