Polling Firms Asking the Wrong Questions on Iraq

Take a quick glimpse over at the the Iraq section of pollingreport. What you will see from nearly every polling firm are long tables showing the trend of answers to questions which are variations on one or more of the following:
  • Do you approve or disapprove of Bush's handling of Iraq?
  • Did the U.S. make the right decision to go to war?
  • Has the war made the United Sates safer from terrorism?
  • Should the U.S. keep troops in Iraq or bring them home?
Simply put, these are the wrong questions. My problem with these questions is that three of these four do not even bother to ask people what we should do in Iraq now. The only question that actually asks what we should do now is the "keep troops" vs "bring home" question, and it psoes the question in an hysterical all or nothing manner. This is extremely frustrating and, I would argue, tottally irresponsible. We cannot take actions in the past: we can only take actions now and in the future. Thus, shouldn't it follow that it is more important to ask the public what we should do in Iraq in the future rather than what they think about how we have been doing in Irq so far? Iraq is not an academic question. It is happening now. We need to ask the public what they believe should be done, and to do so in a respectiful manner that does not assumes total withdrawl and never withdrawing are the only possible courses of action.

Both Democrats and Republicans, but mostly Republicans, have worked hard to ignore the public's cry for a timetable in Iraq, and to frame the debate about future action in Iraq as either a timetable vs. no timetable debate, or a total withdrawl vs. no withdrawal debate. That, however, is not where the public stands. This issue for the public is neither whether or not there should be a timetable, nor whether or not we should withdrawl all troops now or not. Instead of either question, the issue for the public is how long we stay in Iraq. You would have to be extremely thick-headed to not realize that public support for the war is heavily contingent upon the length of the war:

Newsweek Poll conducted by Princeton Survey Research Associates International. Aug. 2-4, 2005. N=1,004 adults nationwide. MoE ± 3.

"For how long would you personally support keeping large numbers of U.S. military personnel in Iraq: less than one more year, one to two years, three to five years, six to 10 years, more than 10 years, or as long as it takes to achieve U.S. goals in Iraq?"

As long as it takes    26
Three years or more    32
One year or more       45
Less than one year     50
Unsure			5
Only 26% of the country rejects the notion of a time limit on the war outright. This is a total rejection of Bush's position. June 22, 2004:
I recognize that Americans want our troops to come home as quickly as possible. So do I. Some contend that we should set a deadline for withdrawing U.S. forces. Let me explain why that would be a serious mistake. Setting an artificial timetable would send the wrong message to the Iraqis, who need to know that America will not leave before the job is done. It would send the wrong message to our troops, who need to know that we are serious about completing the mission they are risking their lives to achieve. And it would send the wrong message to the enemy, who would know that all they have to do is to wait us out. We will stay in Iraq as long as we are needed, and not a day longer.
This, however, is not to say that a majority supports immediate and total withdrawal either. According to Gallup, right now 33% of the poulation supports immediate and total withdrawal, but that is by far the highest number they have found in support of that position this year. Since January, the pecentage of people supporting that position has varied from 17%-33%. Despite the questions asked by polling firms, the largest portion of the public is somewhere in between these two positions. Since I favor total pullout in about eighteen months, I myself am in between those two positions.

Polling firms play an important role in shaping the national debate. However, with the exception of the Newsweek poll already quoted, and the Harris poll from June, none of them have ever bothered to ask the American public just how long they think the United Sates should stay in Iraq. They continue to ask the academic and moral question about whether or not what we did in early 2003 was the right thing to do. They continue to accept the Bush administration and Democratic foreign policy establishment line that the main debate right now is whether or not to have a timetable. That may be the debate in D.C., but that is not the debate nationwide. Once and a while, a poll with actual dates does slip out. When it does, it shows that the overwhelming majority of the public wants to end the war within two years or less. Such polls do not slip out often, however, and the debate on our future actions in Iraq remains constrained by the D.C. bubble.

Since the start of the war, polling firms have asked the public whether or not they thought the decision to go to war was correct more than five hundred times. Further, in that same time frame, they have asked the public if they approve or disapprove of Bush's handling of the war more than 1,000 times. By contrast, they have asked the public how long they would like to continue fighting the war only twice. Considering that how long we intend to keep fighting the war is the number one issue when it comes to Iraq right now, it is the responsibility of those who frame the debate to at least pose that question to the American people. That question is a lot more important than whether or not we think what we did two and a half years ago was the right thing to do, because we can't do anything about that now.

Don't hide it people. Let's have this discussion. Just ask us.



Display:


Scheduled drawdown of troops (3.00 / 0)

I support a graduate drawdown of troops over the next 2 years to wean the Iraqi gov't off dependency of US forces. This would be a way to gauge over time their ability to handle their own security situation as well as give them a sense of urgency to get their full military apparatus in top gear. Perhaps a quarterly withdrawal of 15,000 US troops beginning in spring 2006. By the end of 2007 only about 35,000 troops would remain, and these could be pulled back to remote desert installations similar to what was done in Saudi after the Gulf War and prior to the withdrawal to Qatar.

Air support could be extended to the Iraqi government which lacks an air force, similar to the no fly zones during the 1990s. This would provide airstrikes, intel, and medical evac for Iraqi forces.

I was in the military until 2004. I'm in the process of looking to regain a commission to return to active duty in January, and quitting my IT job. I was in the kosovo liberation and I have no problem helping out in this effort if need be.

I oppose immediate withdrawal and leaving the Iraqis to chaos just because I was against the invasion in the first place.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 01:58:37 PM EST

Ultimately, the US has such a double standard.. (none / 0)

We supported Saddam for so long, and at the same time, giving him weapons and even germs for biowarfare. It was during this time that he did his bloodiest work, including the Anfal campaign against the Kurds. We supported him during the Iran-Iraq war, giving him accurate targeting information gleaned from US satellite photography. There is also evidence that at the same time, we were giving Iran accurate targeting information against him!!!

You heard me right, we helped both sides kill each other..  It wasn't until he invaded Kuwait (after receiving highly mixed messages from the US about whether we cared!) that the US propaganda machine swung into action against him. I'm not saying that Saddam wasn't a murderer.. He clearly was.. but, lets just say this.. There are no angels here...

Honestly, the best thing the US could do is invest heavily in enegy independence for ourselves and get the hell out of there...  Our 450 billion dollars is just being siphoned away by corporate cronies and seems to be doing little to help the American PEOPLE (as opposed to American corporations, which are exporting all of our jobs with the GOP's blessings anyway..)

That's our thanks for being stupid enough to trust the GOP's looting squad...assuming that they did win elections.. and not steal them.. (debatable)

by ultraworld on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 06:10:28 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Ultimately, the US has such a double (none / 0)

I wish this country would get behind alternative fuels in a way like the space program in the 1950s and 1960s. At this rate we'll never be energy independent.

Oh I forgot, there's no money for such initiatives because our dumbass cut so many revenue streams during wartime.

http://operationyellowelephant.blogspot.com/
by Vote Hillary 2008 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 07:43:02 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Success or failure (none / 0)

Another substantive question is whether or not Americans think we will succeed in creating a stable, liberal democracy in Iraq. If Americans think we cannot do that, then support for keeping troops in country will plumment. That's the finding of public opinion scholars of prior wars too. Americans don't mind losing soldiers and they don't mind going to war on false pretenses. But they absolutely do not accept losing. If people believe we are losing then the game is up.
by elrod on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 02:24:43 PM EST

DCCC & what Iraq? (none / 0)

NPR hosted an interesting debate with David Sirota, John Zogby & Bill Burton, spokesman for the DCCC, on the Iraq war. Once again Paul Hackett was a focus.

Zogby and Sirota are maintaining that Iraq must be a central issue for the Democratic Party while the DCCC feels that local issues are key. Burton maintains that local issues were really the key in the Hackett race and that Iraq wasn't that significant. That simply isn't true.

As someone who watched the race virtually from day one Hackett couldn't help but talk about Iraq. Iraq was what people wanted to discuss. Iraq was on everyone's mind. As the race went on it became more and more of a focus simply because people were, and still are, desperate for answers, and Paul Hackett was the only candidate who seemed capable of talking about it from an honest perspective.


vis http://blog.oh02.com/2005/08/12/iraq-debate/
The DCCC is really in the know, I'm sure.
by Jerome Armstrong on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 03:12:13 PM EST

Re: DCCC & what Iraq? (none / 0)

"Zogby and Sirota are maintaining that Iraq must be a central issue for the Democratic Party while the DCCC feels that local issues are key. Burton maintains that local issues were really the key in the Hackett race and that Iraq wasn't that significant. That simply isn't true."

Given Hackett's background and experience in Iraq, it's only natural that he would receive tons of questions about it.  

But if not for the very local issue of Ohio being a total sewer of Republican corruption, Paul Hackett probably would have lost by a larger margin, regardless of his impressive and unique credentials.

As a result, I think sides have a pretty reasonable argument here, and there are probably elements of truth in both.  

It wasn't just his Iraq experience, and it wasn't just local issues, but a combination that, among other things, created an environment in which Hackett could do incredibly well in a very tough district for Democrats (to put it mildly).

by Politicalhack06 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 05:09:13 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Excellent Post (none / 0)

There is a real debate in this country that the DC establishment-- Congressional Democrats, GOPers, the Media elite-- don't want to talk about and you have hit the nail on the head.

The DCCC wants to continue with their Dick Gephardt-style Democracy Corps memo campaigns.  And frankly, those have dug Democrats further in the hole from their goal of getting back Congress or the Presidency.  

It looks like it up to the blogosphere and folks like Cindy Sheehan to get the press to realize what is going on in this country and what people actually care about.

We need to have an exit strategy and this administration HAS NO PLAN.  Wasn't that the lesson of Vietnam. Know why you are getting in and how you are getting out? Especially when you in a land war in Asia.  

If Wes Clark had more clearly articulated his exit strategy for Iraq, he would be president by now. John Kerry was incapable of doing so, because he speaks Senate.

by DaveB on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 04:07:06 PM EST

Re: Excellent Post (none / 0)

"If Wes Clark had more clearly articulated his exit strategy for Iraq, he would be president by now."

Let's not get carried away here.

by Politicalhack06 on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 06:37:46 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Polls (none / 0)

Zogby was on the Kudlow show this afternoon.  Kudlow can't get it through his thick head that the reason Bush is doing so poorly in all the polls is because of the war.  Kudlow said that the economy is great (he must be making money in the stock market and he must not live in Ohio!!!!).  Zogby kept saying 'its the war.'
by Marie Smith on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 06:50:45 PM EST

Chris, (none / 0)

This is an extremely sharp point to make.

You are one smart dude.

Let's get Ruy Texeira and other Dem pollsters to start asking this question.

by Thresholder on Fri Aug 12, 2005 at 07:19:21 PM EST

Polling Questions (none / 0)

Chris, that post is spot on.  But for a few other important question, how about these:

Do you think the US should publicly renounce having  permanant Military bases in Iraq?

Do you think the US should publicly renounce any interest in Iraqi Oil?

These kind of questions change the framing of our continued prescence in Iraq, and if we publicly renounced these two issues, the tide to get us out of Iraq would turn much faster.

by OzBill on Sat Aug 13, 2005 at 12:50:55 PM EST


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