WA: Cantwell Leads McGavick in GOP Poll

Cross-posted from OurSenate:

A new Strategic Vision (GOP) poll shows Sen. Maria Cantwell (D) leading Safeco CEO Mike McGavick 46%-38%.  While this may seem to be a dangerously small lead, remember that this is a GOP poll.  Therefore, her lead is probably significantly larger.  With a 3% margin or error, Cantwell's lead is proably around 11%.  However, McGavick probably has lower name recognition that Cantwell at this point in the campaign, so it is likely that McGavick will reduce this margin significantly as he begins his campaign.

Considering that Cantwell won her 2000 election by less than 1%, I think that she is in pretty good shpe right now.  However, she only has a 47-36 approval/disapproval rating.  With re-elect numbers below 50, Cantwell is still going to have to campaign hard to win re-election, but her eight point (at least!) lead, she should ultimately be able to win.

Are there any readers in WA who can tell us anything about McGavick's local support?  He seems to be the NRSC choice...

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Cantwell (none / 0)

I'm in Seattle, where about 80% of the voters vote Democratic.  After his resignation from Safeco and announcement of his exploratory bid made the news locally, we really haven't heard much about him.

The problem with Maria Cantwell is that we don't really hear much from or about her either.  I've tracked her votes and generally been with her.  She's a good liberal soldier.

What she doesn't seem to be is a leader.  Our other Senator, Patty Murray, is continually making news for initiatives she is leading, legislation she is sponsoring, speeches she is making, and stands she is taking.

I've also written to both Cantwell and Murray, and received responses from Murray (albeit canned) but never from Cantwell.

The state of Washington may be expecting more than we're getting from Maria Cantwell, which may be why her poll numbers aren't stronger.  I think it's going to be a very close race, and a seat we could potentially lose.

by nocloset on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:36:49 AM EST

Local support (none / 0)

McGavick's local support seems to consist enitrely of the state party apparatus, probably in large part because he can partially self-finance and his loss won't cost the party much.

As far as grassroots wingnut support, it doesn't seem like he has any, at least yet. Based on a quick peek at the local righty blogs, there's nary a peep about him. His connections don't seem to go beyond the downtown Seattle business community. He's a corpocrat, and I don't see him inspiring much of anything in the theocrats who make up the party base, especially in an off-year election where they don't have any other reason to come to the polls.

All the poll at this point is showing us is that any Republican candidate running statewide can count on a base of at least 40% simply by virtue of the (R) after his name (once you get outside the Puget Sound area, it's a pretty red state). Clearing 50% for a GOP statewide candidate is a huge hurdle, though. My guess is that in a low-turnout election, the GOP is banking on making up the difference by nibbling away enough suburban moderates. They tried it the opposite way in 1998, running crazy christian Linda Smith against Patty Murray, and I doubt they're eager to make that mistake again.

by Crazy Vaclav on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:55:17 AM EST

Re: Local support (none / 0)

especially in an off-year election where they don't have any other reason to come to the polls

Don't forget that Initiative 912 is on the ballot this year. (For those not from WA, it's an initiative to repeal a new gas tax that was imposed last year after more than a decade of struggle between the business community, transit-oriented liberals, and taxophobes.)

I-912 will turn out the Republican base in large numbers (and, unfortunately, will probably pass). They may not be excited about McGavick, but they strongly dislike Cantwell and so they will vote for him.

Cantwell needs to start making noise now and keep it up until the election. Otherwise, this seat is definitely in danger.

by dal20402 on Wed Aug 10, 2005 at 11:49:00 PM EST
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