MyDD :: OH-02 Newsflash - Hackett Will Lose. Period.

OH-02 Newsflash - Hackett Will Lose. Period.

by TimRusso, Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:09:33 AM EST

excerpted here, full post at http://www.democracyguy.com

First, the district. OH-02 is a Republican seat. Rock. Solid. Portman's been winning the seat with over 70% of the vote. The Republican who won her hotly contested primary, Jean Schmidt, received more votes than the votes cast for every Democrat in the Democratic primary combined. There aren't enough Democrats in this district to elect a Democrat. It's like running a white guy in Stephanie Tubbs Jones' district. Throw in the fact that this is a low turnout special election, in AUGUST, and it is simply impossible to imagine any Democrat getting enough people to the polls to threaten, let alone win.

Second, there's the candidate. I'm sure Paul Hackett is a nice guy, and would make a great congressman. He's a soldier returned from Iraq, who now criticizes the war. If that strikes you as a caricature of the rationale that governed the entire 2004 presidential primary process for Democrats, you're right. We need to look tough, so let's run soldiers on the ballot.

...

This flush of excitement fueled by the naivete of armchair politico wannabes who wander into the electorate for the first time in their lives is charming, but can only be damaging in the long term. There is not one chance in hell that Hackett wins, yet Hackett gets the assistance of thousands of people who have never been to Ohio, don't know Ohio's politics, have never met the man, and will forget about OH-02 on August 3. Meanwhile, Ohio Democrats have a real shot at winning statewide seats for the first time in over a decade, and all this activity is going on in an area of the state that no statewide Democratic candidate would be caught dead wasting his time in during the 2006 campaign.....

...If Hackett wins, I will happily eat crow. When he loses, I doubt anyone in the lefty blogosphere will do the same.

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Newsflash: Russo is an idiot (3.00 / 1)

Nobody cares what you think Russo. Why should anyone in "the lefty blogosphere" eat crow if Hackett loses in a district that is 70% Republican?

Go back to wherever you came from and impress your freeper buddies with your Karnac the Magnificent predictions. On your way home you might want to examine your Funk & Wagnell Mayonaise jar for your pickled brain.

by Gary Boatwright on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:25:41 AM EST

Re: Newsflash: Russo is an idiot (none / 0)

so you're pleased that hackett will lose? after all this effort and excitement?

by TimRusso on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:31:44 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Like Dean said... (none / 0)

We'll be happy to put this advice in the same place we put all the advice we get from GOPers.

Damn... my toilet's clogged with SO MUCH advice from pigs.

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:22:31 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Newsflash: Russo is an idiot (3.00 / 1)

Newsflash Update: Russo is still an idiot.

by Gary Boatwright on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 11:28:05 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Newsflash: Russo is an idiot (none / 0)

The DCCC is involoved. Just checked my mail. In it was a flyer from the DCCC saying taking how Jean Schimdt raised taxes while a state representative.

Also http://blog.oh02.com/ as link to the Cincinnati Enquier article talking about the conservative C.O.A.S.T organization is using a liberal PAC to purchase their media buys. The ads are urging people not to vote for Schmidt, but also not to the polls and vote.

I think Hackett has an uphill climb, but it is not impossible. This is the first time in many years that the Democrat in the 2nd district has had enough funds to put out t.v. ads. Republicans do not like the ad and want the Hackett Campaign to pull it because they think it impiles that Bush endorses Hackett.

by zacilor on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:01:03 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Interesting... (none / 0)

I agree that Bush probably doesn't support Hackett. Don't know whether it gives that impression.

Franky, I'm amused that they GOP now wants to take issue with something giving thewrong impression.

Frankly what they deserve is for someone to hack into their system, get a list of hard core Bush supporters, and a group of Bush impersonators to call them all and make a personal 'Presidential' request to vote Hackett.

That's what they deserve... but for now they can settle for a 'tough titty, dickholes.'

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:07:59 PM EST
[ Parent ]

We are done writing off districts (3.00 / 1)

The interests of OH-2 would be better served by Democrats. Why? Well we could argue all day and muster this argument and that but in the end it comes down to the fact that I am a Democrat who reveres FDR and the New Deal. The Republican Party simply got it wrong in 1932 and has spent the last 75 years trying to convince us that they were right all along.

Knowing nothing about OH-2 I still feel confident in stating they were okay with Rural Electrification, Social Security and fighting and winning WWII. All of which the Republican Party opposed, the latter until Pearl Harbor and Hitler's declaration of war forced our hand.

Democrats are on the right side of history. You may snort in disbelief, you may agree but argue that I am totally naive, but on the issue of contesting every district the DLC and the Dean led DNC are on the same track for once. We are flat out of the business of writing off the half-million Americans that make up a Congressional District.

It may well be that Hackett Will Lose. But there is synergy involved, fire up dispirited Democrats in OH-2 and you may not win, but you generate votes and maybe even cash for your statewide Democrats. This narrow kind of tactical advice is what has been losing us elections for a dozen years

by Bruce Webb on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:37:23 AM EST

Re: We are done writing off districts (3.00 / 0)

Thank you for this intelligent response. Maybe you don't turn things around in one election--or maybe you can. Thing don't change unless you start working on it. And someone who shows such glee in telling us "nyah nyah, you're gonna lose" is clearly not on our team.

by Renee in Ohio on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:42:33 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are done writing off districts (none / 0)

this would all make sense if only the candidate getting all the attention wasn't unelectable in the post 9/11 ohio. that's part of my point.

by TimRusso on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:44:11 AM EST
[ Parent ]

You advice would make more sense... (none / 0)

if it weren't apparant that you are on the other team.

Hmmm... let me see... if I were playing the Lakers... I think my advice would be that they should bench Kobe so that he'll be ready for the more important game later.

That's about what you're saying. You logic goes something like... the best way to win elections is to not contest them.

Thanks for that nugget of 'wisdom.'

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:24:45 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: We are done writing off districts (none / 0)

I'm sorry Tim, what do you mean "unelectable?" Seriously, how does 45/55 (or even closer, apparently) in one of the redder districts in the country become unelectable? That's point number 1. Point number 2, where the fuck do you get off calling someone who served in Fallujah a liberal wimp (this is taken from one of the later comments you made)? Point 3, you're ignoring the effects this race, and all the money and energy that's going into it, have had on the Ohio Dem. party's organization. Politics is organization, for Christ's sake. It seems to me that the fundamental problem with the DLC is not ideology, but a seriously damaging aversion to organizing, and a consequent obsession with tv ads: if we spend 125K or so on organizing voters (and training the next crop of organizers), and they spend 500K on tv ads, and they win the election that they would have won anyway, the grand result is that the Republicans spent half a million they could have spent elsewhere, while we organized voters and built local networks, and went from losing 70/30 to losing 45/55, we are much better off that we were. Think of it as the difference between renting and buying: the Republicans are renting a campaign, we've just bought one. Come 2006, they'll still need to spend 500K, but we'll need a lot less. Plus, the newly-trained organizers can be moved to other districts, where they can train new organizers, etc. OH-02 is an investment, but all you see is a price tag. That's why, even if we lose in OH-02, you'll still be wrong.

by padraig on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 05:39:25 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Way off base (none / 0)

You very easily join the ranks of arm chair politicos with this post.

What is damaging in the long term about forcing the Republicans into a panic in a dark red seat?
This seat is comparably Republican to Stephanie Herseth's and Ben Chandler's, both of which we won in special elections last cycle. And in this seat we have the privilege of fighting the Ohio Republican Party which is on the ropes.
If there is no chance in hell that Paul Hackett can win than why is the NRCC dumping $500,000 on this race. If he really has no chance why spend that much?
The campaign isn't as much about winning as it is about inspiration, its about taking the fight to the Republicans on their turf.
What does any of this have to do with statewide races in 06? If Hackett has a good showing it will show Democrats that there are votes in non-traditional Democratic areas. I'm not sure if you were paying attention to politics way back in November 04, but your rationale is exactly what cost Kerry Ohio.

by upstatenydem on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:50:27 AM EST

Re: Way off base (none / 0)

republicans aren't in a panic. portman has a lot of juice with the RNC, just because money is going in there, doesn't mean there's a panic. it means they have money to burn, which they always do.
ohio republican party may be on the ropes, but not when you run an anti-war liberal in southern ohio. great way to waste an opportunity...run on a proven vote losing platform. great stuff.
see 1.
if the campaign isn't about winning, then go away. not interested.
i've been paying attention to ohio politics a lot longer than you, anyone reading MyDD, and longer than since november 04. southern ohio is "the south" in every sense of the word. why do you think Hackett makes a big stink about his opposition to gun control?

by TimRusso on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:56:13 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Way off base (none / 0)

Please, I've worked for campaign committee's before, no one dumps that kind of money for no reason. I also know Tom Reynolds' style quite well, they are panicking.
Wait, so no Democratic can win the seat, but its a waste of an opportunity to run Hackett? Make up your mind kiddo.
See 1 as well.
MO, momentum, you might want to look it up. Republicans contested every special election in the ran up to 1994, they didn't win them all, but they made some too close for comfort. Its about showing you are not afraid to fight and you my friend are.
You myopic post does not really reflect it. If no Democrat has won the presidency is recent times without winning a Southern State should we be completely writing off the South in National elections just because its more conservatives. Now here is a concept I doubt you are familiar with, EVERY VOTE COUNTS. It doesn't matter if the vote comes from the East side of Cleveland or Claremont county, a vote is a vote. John Kerry proved you can milk all the votes in the world from Cleveland and still not win, you need to fight everywhere.

by upstatenydem on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:11:24 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Way off base (3.00 / 1)

If you disagree with the assertion that not contesting "deep-red" suburban and rural areas cost us the 2004 election, then it's hard to believe that you were on the ground in Ohio. The GOP doesn't ignore Cleveland, so we can't ignore the 1000 tiny towns that replicate Cleveland as the GOP base. There are lots of these towns in the 2nd, there are SOME Democrats in all of them, and we have to show up to get them to vote for us.

by Frontier PAC on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:11:36 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Off year (none / 0)

True, in a normal election year, this race probably wouldn't get much attention or money, but this is a special election, in an off year, so it does get attention and money. We can't keep writing off districts and states to the GOP. We have to run strong candidates in every race and build a strong team of Democrats. This race may be close. We shall see on Tuesday night.

Max Friedman

by Max Friedman on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 09:58:59 AM EST

From those armchair politicos (none / 0)

At ABC's The Note:

"Just watch what the NRCC and DCCC are up to in the district this weekend and you'll get a sense of how competitive each side believes the race has become in the homestretch.

Though, before you pop the popcorn and tune in on Tuesday evening for a nail-biter, remember the numbers both Rep. Portman and President Bush posted in this district last November. That being said, the race is apparently far from over."

by upstatenydem on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:29:51 AM EST

Yeah... remember those Bush numbers... (none / 0)

Oh snap! I just remembered... Bush is a LITTLE less poular right now.

Maybe those numbers don't mean as much, and we should just do what we can.

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:32:42 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah... remember those Bush numbers... (none / 0)

That wasn't my point. My point was that even independent analysts think that race is close.

by upstatenydem on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:42:09 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Yeah... remember those Bush numbers... (none / 0)

Oh yeah... wasn't trying to dis you... it was the analyst, bringing up a point that wasn't really relevant.

You see... many more people than in Nov. realize just how bad Bush sucks. So I just saw that comment as an attempt at balance, but 'balancing' two things that aren't equally relevant.

Let's see... looks close now, but wasn't close with different candidates and/or different offices.

Anyway... my bad if I sounded petty or insulting.

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:11:48 PM EST
[ Parent ]

If he weren't polling within the margin of error (none / 0)

and the leader burning down in her last debate..you might have a point. OH yeah and if her cash on hand wasn't worse than Hacketts before this last HUGE RNCC ad buy of over $500,000 you MIGHT have a point.

Other than that you sound like a troll.

Sorry. Sick of people who want to blow out good candidates who raise GOOD money, who run GOOD campaigns.

...just a red meat eatin' Democratic Dawg at PolCampaign

by BigDog on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:48:38 AM EST

Russo - Hackett (3.00 / 1)

In honor of your defeatist diary Tim I just sent Hackett another $30 to match my earlier $20 contribution.

Hackett may win or he may lose but fighting in OH-02 is most definitely to the advantage of the Democratic Party.

by Curt Matlock on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 10:55:50 AM EST

You're missing the point. (none / 0)

It's been said over and over again that Hackett is a longshot. Whether he wins or loses, the money the Reeps have to lay out in OH-02 is money they can't spend elsewhere. Making them work for it is better than ceding territory without a fight.

Period.

Yeah, I'm cynical.

by catastrophile on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 11:10:55 AM EST

Russo...I Don't Buy Your Basic Premise (none / 0)

I think there is great value in making inroads into the places where you normally tank. If John Kerry had fought a little harder in those rural and exurban counties Bush carried with 70%+, he might be president today.

I have looked at this with considerable analysis. Kerry held his own or even improved incrementally on Gore's performance in a lot of large-population counties. What lost him the election was the fact that he absolutely hemorrhaged votes in these smaller, but growing counties. EXACTLY the type of counties that make up OH 02.

The goal should be to win, and I don't think you can doubt the intent of those working their asses off in Southern Ohio this weekend to make that happen. However, the point is that turning a place like Ohio 02 from a 70-30 Republican district to a 55-45 district (or even 60-40) just bought your team an additional 10,000-20,000 votes the next time around. If that isn't smart planning for 2006, I don't know what is.

by Singiser on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 11:18:18 AM EST

Please............ (none / 0)

the basic premise is that this is precisely the wrong kind of candidate to run in ohio (anti-war soldier), and all this assistance is going to him only because he is, in fact, precisely the wrong kind of candidate...i.e., an anti-war soldier.

if all this has any effect at all on the electorate in OH-02, it will be to just remind these sprawl-dwelling, borderline rural voters who voted overwhelmingly for Bush in 04 that their gut instinct about Dems being wimps is justified. that is a bad impression to leave.

this level of blogosphere support would not go to a candidate who supported the Iraq war. simply would not have happened. to argue that this was all just about "competing to win", making Republicans fight every corner of the US, blah blah blah, is a load of complete horseshit.

this was about Iraq. Hackett in OH-02 was about Iraq. if you're not going to be honest about why you're giving a shit about Scioto-fucking-County, then stay out of ohio's politics. we have enough problems without the blogosphere making Ohio it's ideological purity playground.

by TimRusso on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 11:43:26 AM EST
[ Parent ]

Re: Please............ (none / 0)

Tim--

Stop being so damned sensitive. If you read any comments I have made in the past, I am not someone who is big on the ideological purity test. Neither are many of the people here,many of whom also were big advocates of Herseth and Chandler, not exactly anyone's ideas of liberal bedwetters.

If what you are saying is true, then Hackett should lose by 40 points. If he does, then the experiment was a failure.

By the way, I think someone who SERVED in Iraq who has qualms about it is not necessarily anathema. I don't think a bunch of folks cheerleading from the sidelines in Ohio (or anywhere) can talk a whole lot of shit about a guy who spent the holidays in Fallujah, AND has already indicated that he is likely to return in the event that the election is unsuccessful.

by Singiser on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:12:21 PM EST
[ Parent ]

So, the extra attention has NOTHING to do with... (none / 0)

... it being a competetive special election in a battleground state?

Nothing to do with a desire to change the momentum going into '06?

Nothing at ALL to do with the fact that Bush is hemorraging Republican support, and this is an excellent opportunity to bring that fact to national media attention via an underdog Democratic victory?

Puh-leez! At least that explains your wierd-ass advice, aside from being on the other team. For you, any race simply MUST be about one and only one issue.

In your mind, there are no parties then... just a series of referenda on Iraq.

Hmmm... sounds like a stupid ass POV to me, but have fun in Russoland, "Where's its all about Iraq and only Iraq all the time?"

"Would you like fries with that?"
"That depends... where do the fries stand on Iraq?"

by teknofyl on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:17:54 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Wrong (none / 0)

Ahh... you believe you have your finger on the pulse of Hackett contributors. Or maybe you are just pulling it out of your ass.

Certainly in my case I sent Hackett money because it is a special election and he has a chance to win, not because he is anti-Iraq war. His position is more nuanced than that of course, but to the typical Republican mind there are really only two positions on the switch, black and white.

I smell blood in the water as do many other Democrats. No doubt some are supporting him on that single issue but others are partisans who sincerely want to help the Democratic party roll-back Republican control of Congress.

Right now the fight is in OH-02 and Democrats are showing up for battle. What's hard to understand about that?

by Curt Matlock on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:29:17 PM EST
[ Parent ]

Just leave (none / 0)

Does us all a favour, please.

by Alexander Drummond on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 12:12:26 PM EST

Yeah, but you should see the other guy! (none / 0)

If the RCCC or the RNC needs to pumpo $5,000 into its own little part of God's green acre, than I could not be happier.

Make them fight for OH-02; make them fight for every inch they get.

We'll take the battle to them. That might take some heat off in PA-06 and other seats that are ours for the asking.

Also, more than one Republican House member will see this battle and question if they have a seat that is sooooo safe, that they can vote for Cafta-like bills.

Finally, the closeness of this fight may energize donors and voters in other "safe" republican districts.

by quaker on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 01:26:48 PM EST

HOW MUCH?? (none / 0)

Dropped a few 00's. Should read "pump $500,000 into its"

by quaker on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 01:28:25 PM EST

asdf (none / 0)

"There is not one chance in hell that Hackett wins, yet Hackett gets the assistance of thousands of people who have never been to Ohio, don't know Ohio's politics, have never met the man..."

And this is a problem because...?

Invest in nature

by NCDem on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 02:43:02 PM EST

Please Stop... (none / 0)

Tim,

As a former Marine, one word of advise, just so that you at least seem like you have some clue about what you're talking about: Marines don't like to be referred to as soldiers - we're freaggin' Marines. Hackett is a Marine, not a soldier. If you don't know the difference, then look it up.

Vox Mia -- Adding My Voice to the Chorus

by bedobe on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 02:54:15 PM EST

ROFLCOPTER! LOLERSKATES! (none / 0)

Hey Russo, so your a "Clinton Democrat," eh? Boy that DLC model sure has won us a bunch of elections over the past 15 years.

Oh wait...it hasn't. The GOP controls 3/3 branches of government.

Go take your homogenized version of Democrats somewhere else. We have had all the Kerry's and Biden's that we can stomache.

You guys are so out of touch with mainstream America, that even Dean would have a better chance of winning a national election than one of your candidates.

by agpc on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 04:57:41 PM EST

Even if Hackett loses (none / 0)

We made RNC spent $1M and set out an organization in OH-2 that can be used in future elections.

by jasmine on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 05:22:54 PM EST

Russo: (none / 0)

Newsflash - South Dakota is just as Republican as Ohio's 2nd CD. Yet we managed to get Democrat Stephanie Herseth elected in a 2004 special election there. She was reelected by a decent margin in November 2004 and has an approval rating right now in the 70's. In other words, you know where you can shove that attitude.

by raginillinoian on Fri Jul 29, 2005 at 08:16:02 PM EST

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